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  2. Yes and certainly a bit of an improvement that on the 6z suit Still think the cool down around the latter half of next week at this stage is just a mere cool down rather than a shot of cold (at this stage anyway) Still time for change of course and a long way out still and I'm hoping for some good upgrades and some wintry precipitation appearing on some charts as we head towards next week Whichever way the GEFS ensembles that we've seen today I think all but confirm the HP that attempts to grow to our NW around that timeframe will topple through by around D8-10 but that was always the most obvious scenario in my opinion Onwards we go to tomorrows models then.. set my alarm for 05:00 as it's that time of year now
  3. Jose looks so relaxed a far cry from his days at Man U. Maybe the fact he's back home in London will help.
  4. I agree (as a non Scot who's glad she lives here). Thought Corbyn did OK too though. Swinson and Johnson rightly bombed. A bit warmer today on a weather note.
  5. Dry calm and cloudy. Staying reasonably mild with the cloud. Temp 7.4c
  6. Yes @feb1991blizzard most consistent run so far from the GEFS with the warming starting to push into Canada / Arctic by around 4th / 5th December onward. Mean - Will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds.
  7. Yesterday
  8. This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise.
  9. Lots of scatter on the 18z ensembles, this is for Northern England, lots of cold members in there.
  10. Wouldn't surprise me to see an even lower mean on the 18z, perhaps even an SSW.
  11. Twitchy times for the start of winter! Hope it's not another case of December recording a higher CET than the preceding November......
  12. I could suggest a better solution to lots of things. Better democracy means better representation. Better governance would follow. I would like to see a better future for the people that follow that doesn't mean them having to climb the greasy pole.and screw each other over.
  13. Only 5mm of rain has fallen in the 11 hours that the yellow warning has been in force.
  14. Good post and yes the lower areas of pressure are the problem.the high cannot push north even if it's further west.imo also there's a window of opportunity here before the nao moves towards neutral + moving into December with the PV moving up a gear
  15. Yes a few snow showers around on this run even in the south, better than nothing, might get a slight covering in a few spots, all a long way off of course and plenty of time for potential "upgrades".
  16. 18z GFS continues with the toppling scenario by day 10 which is already shown in the ECM/GFS 12z mean runs. This has been the trend today since the 06gfs run raised the eyebrow this morning.We can see that some of the vortex is leaking back across the pole towards the Canadian side which is putting more pressure on the Greenland ridging. Anyhow that's today's trend- tomorrow may be different wrt timings and the amount of ridging but those blues spreading back across the pole are scrubbing any Greenland heights.
  17. Yes it looks like a toppler but not as much as previous run so a step in the right direction,it would certainly be a cold/fresh/clean few days with perhaps some wintry showers in the NE and night time frost's and not the zonal mush we normally see at this time of the year.
  18. I often find late November an exceptionally miserable time weather wise overall, sometimes we can strike lucky with a cold arctic blast or cold frosty conditions overhead even a bit of snow, but the most likely scene is a damp drab grey dank one, often with bouts of wind and rain. The outlook for the next few days at least (signs by next Thursday things will change to something brighter and colder), is of this ilk.. Mmm just have to grin and bear it. No denying this is a preety miserable time of the year.
  19. True, but small steps back in the right direction none the less. At least theres a chance of snow showers moving in now in the NE. Never know, 00z might revert back to a big boom run, things are chopping and changing backwards and forwards.
  20. Your correct.it has to topple with the energy not going up the west coast of greenland or SSE.needs a weakening around Greenland to allow heights to extend north
  21. It will topple, but it’s a step back towards a better outcome for coldies - after the evening runs this is no bad thing!!!
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