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  2. beatpete


    © Peter Ryan

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    © Peter Ryan

  10. As its quite, here's a few pics from the past few weeks around swansea..... right who's off to hunt for wet snow in the Beacons later?
  11. Here’s the Greenland pressure charts from the ENS - it looks like HP will be around there for the next 2 weeks should be good news for coldies. Depending on how the dart board low reacts/slides when over the U.K. could have quite big FI consequences. Sadly at the minute the charts are showing LP over the U.K. to hang around, not good for saturation levels and probably the worst that could happen with regards stopping any colder weather heading our way.
  12. The outlook from Monday onwards suggests milder and wetter weather which could help compensate for the lower than average temperatures up to date.
  13. Well, if, like me, you are a fan of extremes, today's GEFS 06Z ensembles hold-out little hope...?
  14. @Midlands Ice Age looking at the temperatures it looks like the summer temperatures are average but winter temperatures way too high but during summer a lot of ice is lost, so probably the ice that gets formed isn't that thick and melts easily. So we probably can't say anything until September 2020
  15. More snow to hit Sweden after temperatures drop to new record cold WWW.THELOCAL.SE The lowest temperature of the winter season was recorded early on Thursday and more harsh winter weather is on its way, national...
  16. Must be getting fairly close to a below average month? (if anyone knows the stats so far)? Don't recall very much if any mild weather during November at all (and don't look like warming up rest of the week either)
  17. 6.9c to the 12th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.6c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st Current low this month 6.9c to the 12th
  18. Today
  19. The norm for early SSW events is actually for the stratospheric vortex to be strong in late winter (though small sample) so it may be that it simply expects Jan-Feb to revert.
  20. Met office yellow warning for ice NE and E Scotland Wednesday and Thursday. Yellow warnings for rain for parts of England Wednesday to Friday.
  21. Here’s the GEFS mean at 144, now I know what happens later on with that dartboard low scuppering things, but it won’t take much of a change for things to quickly make a turn for the better for coldies.
  22. That's regarding GloSea5. I guess it can't take an SSW in to account because the data has already been assimilated?
  23. Thanks for your reply and comments above..... It is undoubtedly true that the Pacific side of the Arctic has 'struggled' for the last few years. However, I believe, all is not lost. Beaufort as you have shown from the Masie time chart went thru a very bad period about 2-3 weeks ago. It is now catching up with its normal rates of 'icing' . Chukchi is a disaster this year - no way of avoiding that … (as you show in your chart ) However, remember that the longer it stays ice free then the more it is going to cool down. (via more heat loss). However the one absolute factor which 'cheers' me this year is that the Bering Straits, (remember that is the entry of the Pacific), is freezing more quickly. (see graph below). That does not tie in with the 'Pacification' theory. In addition to the quick freeze in the 'western' Atlantic front, we now have the extreme East showing signs of change at the same tiime. Is it temporary? Time will tell. But if it stays around then it will mean a quicker refreeze into the Pacific, via the SOO. So at this moment in time, the situation is not clear. It is too early to start to claim disaster. We have not seen the Atlantic ice front perform this way for about 10 years. (maybe more). Is what is occurring in the east (Chukchi, and mainly the last 2-5 years) temporary? Is it caused mainly by the entry of warmer waters from the Pacific into Bering? Or is it the persistent high temperature anomaly being shown for Chukchi in particular? If so, has it anything to do with the high levels of stratospheric ozone over exactly the area under examination? I feel we need to wait and see how this develops. As Fred (aka BFTP) has suggested it could be that oceanic factors are beginning to change, and that they will play a greater and greater part in what develops over the next few years. Is the 'low solar' impacting this year? However - no one knows - yet. MIA
  24. Nice frost this morning here in bright sunshine. Temps rising now up to -0.3C. Nice pic here of Ben a Ghlo taken from Errichel looking NE over the fog inversion in the upper Tay valley.
  25. Glosea is a high top model & will be able to factor in the SSWs into the seasonal forecast however its only in the last week or so this has become more visible in the models - based on that the next seasonal run of the models in particular Met office & ECMWF will be very interesting...
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