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  2. There was some fog in parts of Cheshire and Bristol this morning. Manchester had some mist which soon lifted.
  3. BBC monthly outlook Summary Chilly and calm next week, then milder and wetter. _________________________________ Wednesday 23 October – Sunday 27 October Unsettled weather then colder and drier. Two bands of rain are going to move across the UK from two directions. The first brings rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland from the northwest, accompanied by strong winds, moving into Wales and northern England for the night-time. The second brings patchier rain from the southeast towards the Midlands. In between these it will be dry and bright for a while. Thursday will see these belts of rain across England and Wales weaken but north and west Scotland will have widespread showers, some heavy, with strong winds, up to gale force or even severe gale force in exposed western regions. On Friday, southwest winds will bring slightly warmer conditions, especially across southeast England, between high pressure to the southeast and low pressure moving towards southern Ireland. The associated warm front pushes rain across Wales, most of England and southern Scotland, likely heaviest across Wales, northwest England and the north Midlands. Rain will only reach southeast England later in the day but strong winds could develop here. Northern Scotland will have scattered, blustery showers, some wintry at higher elevations. As rain becomes heavier there could also be some wet snow mixing in over the Southern Uplands, the Pennines and Snowdonia. Rain will only slowly start to clear east and south-eastwards during Saturday and Saturday night, finally leaving Kent late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Northern Ireland and Scotland will have blustery showers, some heavy, widespread in areas exposed to the north-northwest wind. Other areas will have a lot of dry weather but a few stray showers could get pushed southwards. Most notably there will be colder air moving right across the country with temperatures below average everywhere. Monday 28 October – Sunday 3 November Rather cold and dry. "Dry and chilly" would be a simple way to sum up the expected weather during the end of October and start of November. High pressure is expected to move in from the northwest and settle across the UK for a few days. This will mean frosty and occasionally foggy nights but otherwise mostly fine, dry and quite calm weather. However, winds could back north-easterly for a while, and this might cause a few North Sea showers to drift into eastern coastal areas of England and the north and east of Scotland, most likely around Monday 28th -Tuesday 29th October. These could be wintry over higher ground just inland. There is a slight chance (about 25 per cent probability) that high pressure will become positioned a little farther east, and this would allow milder south to southwest flows into the UK. Later in the week the high pressure could weaken a little, and this could open the door to frontal systems coming across Scotland and then southwards down the North Sea, bringing chances of precipitation across northern and eastern regions. Monday 4 November – Sunday 24 November Turning milder and wetter. There is a chance that high pressure could rebuild for a while near the British Isles during the first half of November, keeping quite dry weather for many areas for a while, although northern and western regions look increasingly likely to catch some rain and occasionally stronger winds. As the month wears on it looks more like that high pressure will slip away south-eastwards into the European continent, with low pressure areas often located to the west or northwest of the British Isles. This should ensure some milder southwest and westerly flows with temperatures lifting near seasonal or slightly above. However, these low pressure systems are likely to move closer to the UK to bring bands of rain across more of the country, with increasing winds at times. Western and northern areas of the UK would be most likely to have the wettest and windiest conditions. Rainfall amounts should stay near normal for November over central and eastern areas of England. Overall, we see a supressed risk of any significant wintry weather through this period. The main risk is that low pressure develops more strongly over the UK, bringing more widely wetter and windier than average conditions. Further ahead We will see if the set up for mid-November gives us any more detail on when the change from the drier, colder conditions to milder and wetter ones will happen. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather
  4. Good to have a fellow Medway member back so we can check on those all important snow posts
  5. Indeed and it's doing it for my neck of the woods too. It seems to have been a theme the past few days, GFS op run often trending colder and pulling the suite down as @tight isobar alludes to I'm quietly confident of a colder regime setting in for a while.
  6. To-add..upper dynamics..also painting a favourable picture.... In terms of exaction of pressure points... And cold incurance.. We are as it stands....in a good place!!! Even as we stride into the new month (November)= @top snap
  7. Expect the gfs 12z to join the slightly warmer cluster later!!nearly every other perturbation backs the control with a low cutting through the uk between 144 and 168 hours!!maybe ecm was on to something this morning!!the good thing is it looks like we get atlantic height rises behind the low!!hopefully we get those heights more into greenland!
  8. Now here we are....that mean-continues to grab a stranglehold of its members...dragging them down like the nagging wife..on the ill fated husband!!! And that eye catching cold pool deepens-and expands!! So the crucial overall viewing Must be.. Warm air advection to the north western quadrant!!=and into the polar points!!!!
  9. Seems as if the GFS 06Z Operational has taken to trundling along at the coldest side of the GEFS ensembles, once again...?
  10. BFTV... Nowhere have I claimed that the ice is not at the lowest. My posts have been over the last 4 -5 days only. So your comment about it being in a worsening state compared to every other year was certainly correct up to 5 days ago, but things are changing rapidly right now. That is what I am seeing and reporting here. Your graphs ended at the same time as this rapid increase began, and would not show this new adjustment.. Re Masie..... 1) It also claims that it is the most accurate at seeing day to day changes. (yes - it does state that it should not be used for month to month and year to year comparison). Also Masie has not been changed for several years now. 2) 18 months ago (I am sure you remember ) the NOAA/NSIDC changed their monthly volume algorithm, which had the effect of reducing the monthly figures by an average of 1.8% over the history of their record. So some sense of proportion must be retained. Also they told us that there would be 'most data imperfections as a result of their changes' in periods when coastal sea ice was changing rapidly (I.e. now and in May). This is due to their use of 'a fixed grid' for coastal ice which is updated every 2 weeks at this time of year. Coastal ice is not their speciality! They claimed changes of up to 2.8% at this time of year. (Oct/Nov). No product is perfect - and the NSIDC are producing a dataset which is being adjusted over the years, (Probably for valid reasons). I was trying to stay out of that debate and to just comment on what is currently happening. 3) Many people use JAXA these days for the above reasons.. The above are the reasons that I chose to use Masie as it ties in directly with the US NIC data which is released before all other datasets. I find your use of UK for comparison of extent , quite interesting. The last 4 days increase of ice increase in Laptev and ESS alone have been about 720K Km2. That is 3 times the area of the United Kingdom!!. I shall be watching this afternoons figures from Masie with interest. As I suggest above, I want to keep the climate debate out of my posts. MIA
  11. Today
  12. My thermometer (new in the last few weeks) dropped to 0.6c this morning - wondering if there's a fault/calibration issue with it based on some of these other readings
  13. Yep a chilly morning bottomed out at 4.4C coldest morning of season so far, forecast on app had 10C just a bit off.
  14. 11.2c to be the 22nd Bang on the 61 to 90 average Bang on the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 13.4c to the 1st Current low this month 10.0c to be the 3rd *Yesterday's update should have said to the 21st*
  15. Hard to really make any accurate forecasts at the moment. Just look at this: It literally could be anything.
  16. Below, is the Racing Post link to the Current Declarations and Betting Guide, to the Third and Final Leg of Category 9, the RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. 3rd LEG HANDICAP HURDLE(3.45 Chelt) HORSE ODDS AYE RIGHT 8/1 NEVERBEEN TO PARIS 9/1 GUNFLEET 11/1 THECLOCKISTICKING 11/1 CAPTAIN TOMMY 12/1 PRINTING DOLLARS 12/1 TWO TAFFS 12/1 ROBIN THE RAVEN 14/1 SOME CHAOS 14/1 STONEY MOUNTAIN 14/1 SYKES 14/1 (White)FRED THE FOOT 16/1 MR. MAFIA 16/1 20/1 BAR THESE. OTHERS ON REQUEST. 1/4 ODDS (1-4). Subject to change, depending on the number of Runners. Select one Horse, in each of the 3 Legs. You will find the Racing Post link to the Current Declarations and a Betting Guide to Legs 1 and 2, in the previous 2 Posts, although the Racing Post link for Leg 1, is below: 2:00 Cheltenham | Standard Racecard | 26 October 2019 | Racing Post WWW.RACINGPOST.COM Your allocated "Virtual" Stakes for this Category will be £2, in 3 x 25p E.W. Doubles and a 25p E.W. Treble. NO WIN Stakes will be accepted, in this Category. Copy/Paste your Selections into the Boxes, provided below: Category 9 - RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. LEG 1: (2.00 CHELT) - Selection - LEG 2: (3.10 CHELT) - Selection - LEG 3: (3.45 CHELT) - Selection - Your Selections for Category 9. the RUBY WALSH TRIXIE, MUST be Posted on this Thread by NOON, on Saturday 26th October. Regards, Tom.
  17. It's important to keep in mind that ice growth is typically the fastest at this time of year. We can see daily ice growth of over 100,000km2, and it still be well below average. In fact, this has been happening over the last week or so, and according to the ADS and NSIDC extent measurements we're lowest on record by over half a million km2. For some perspective, that's over twice the land area of the UK. So the sea ice situation at the moment is worsening relative to the other years. Also, MASIE is not suitable for comparisons with other years, as it's an operational data set (they changes their methods and data sources frequently), so it's not an apples to apples comparison with other years. It makes this quite clear on their website. There are plenty of data sets designed specifically for making year to year or longer term comparisons, but MASIE is specifically not meant for that. ADS graph: VISHOP ADS.NIPR.AC.JP VIsualization Service of Horizontal scale Observations at Polar region NSIDC graph: Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis NSIDC.ORG MASIE FAQ: FAQs | National Snow and Ice Data Center NSIDC.ORG FAQs
  18. Wednesday 23rd October 2019 Variable cloud overnight, fog and low cloud forming around dawn. Vis <100 yards. Little change at observation, thick fog. 24-hour maximum 14.3c 24-hour minimum 3.9c Minimum temperature on grass 1.1c. Maximum wind gust: (Midnight to Midnight) 12.7mph SW Rainfall total: tr.mm Conditions at 09:00 GMT 8 Oktas Stratus, fog. Visibility <100 yards Temperature: 6.3c Humidity: 98.5% Wind Direction: S Force 2 Barometer 1011.0mb falling. Yesterday. Clear spells developing towards midnight and through the early hours. Clouding increasing towards dawn. Rather cloudy so far this morning, some brighter spells. Sunny spells and variable cloud through the day, dry.
  19. GFS looking good at 174, that trough over Canada is moving a lot slower, could be a stonker this one.
  20. What a stunning day yesterday. We mistakenly wore our winter coats to Nonsuch Park not noticing the 16 degrees showing on the car temperature. Yep, it was very warm in the sunshine. Not a brilliant pic below, I took it to capture the changing tree colours in the distance. In Uxbridge today, where the sky is resolutely grey under that cloud cover shown on @Blessed Weather satellite image.
  21. That low could trend south as we get to day 5 and stay dry and cool / cold..
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