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  2. The showers have turned heavier as they have moved east but here it's just about stayed dry and more or less been sunny all day (apart from a tiny 5 minute sprinkle)
  3. Just interested in the uncertainty that is prevalent at the moment, here is the situation at T180 on ICON, GEM, GFS and FV3: I don't think this evolution is nailed down at all, yes higher pressure towards the south, but other than that the models aren't telling us much.
  4. Tuesday 21st May 2019 Variable cloud overnight. Good sunny spells throughout staying dry. Maximum temperature to 18:00 GMT yesterday 19.6c. Minimum temperature overnight 6.5c 24-hour maximum 19.6c 24-hour minimum 6.5c Minimum temperature on grass 3.9c. Maximum wind gust: (Midnight to Midnight) 12.7 mph W Rainfall total: 0.0mm Conditions at 09:00 GMT 3 Oktas cumulus mediocris.. Visibility >10 miles Temperature: 13.6c Humidity: 75.3% Dew point 9.3c Wind Direction: NW Force 3-4 Barometer 1015.9mb Trend rising. Yesterday. Clear spells overnight, turning chilly for May. Sunny throughout the day, dry.
  5. The chaser convergence last night looked as bad as I’ve seen and OK moderate risk is well known for bringing the Yahoo brigade out in their hordes. I was on the Dodge City EF4 in 2016 and despite there only being one road N-S and hundreds of chase vehicles everyone behaved fairly sensibly (pull all the way off the road please!). Mind you that was a slight risk/OFB play and only the expert forecasters were on it in time
  6. Indeed, just a bit of patience required from the impatient grasshoppers!!..we are not eating into summer yet and as I've said, most of this week looks good for the majority, and you're right, reading miserable comments does have a deflating effect but we just need to look for the positives.!
  7. Thanks for that summer sun... Not all bad then, let's hope it has more success than it did in winter though..
  8. Dark sky here now with some rumbles of thunder and a heavy shower. Edit: Absolutely torrential rain and hail here now!
  9. Latest ECM monthly shows a drier than average week this week away from NE Scotland with temps around or a bit above average Weeks 2 shows temps going below normal with rain in the north the south hangs on to the drier conditions Week 3 again sees temps no better than average remaining below average in the west. Wetter than average for most but maybe still below average for some eastern areas Week 4 shows warmer and drier conditions returning nationwide
  10. Thanks for that Karl, in all honesty as you will be aware, I'm normally full of positivity, and like you say we have already had some decent spells of weather so far, I have found myself becoming more and more negative reading some of the posts on here... I mentioned it to a friend and they said.... Get a grip.... And it ain't even summer til June 21, and this coming from a novice who knows little about the weather. Thanks again for putting a positive spin on things which you are the master of to be honest. And them charts you have posted are not half bad! It looks like the south could do best which is relatively typical! And to mention long range signals appear to be weak, which basically means we could end up with any type of weather..... For better or worse I may add.. But we have a long summer ahead so let's just try to make the best of it, I'm sure we won't be waiting long for our first significant plume.... Happy days mate
  11. could be, normally it's late June, where westerlies return, summer starting in the south, finishing in Scotland
  12. Looking at the ukmo 12h there's some very decent weather in the coming days across central and especially southern uk with warm sunny spells and light winds, most of the rain and cooler temps confined to the far north. It does trend more unsettled later from the NW but again, the south may escape the worst of it and benefit from weak azores heights.
  13. Another mild day long sunny spells refreshing breeze Max temp 18.9C, now 18.2C, Barometer 1019mb rising, Wind F3 WNW, Rainfall Nil
  14. Today
  15. Sunny Sheffield now at 10.1C -0.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged at 32.3mm 56% of the monthly average. I'm now wondering if we will actually hit average. Certainly looking a dry month now as well for us which will tip the balance back towards a dry spring.
  16. Indeed, those longer term (T+240 plus) GEFS 6z mean charts i posted above look very nice but all I read on here is doom and gloom and it's not even summer yet!!..we seem to have had plenty of summery weather already but again that's conveniently glossed over as if it hasn't even happened!!
  17. Yet again another negative post, firstly signals are weak, which indicates nobody as a clue! Secondly, it runs to mid June which to my knowledge is not half the summer gone! Buts let's be honest, this is to be expected, because come 1st December with a poor pattern, folks will be calling time on winter.
  18. The long range forecast is about as vague as you can get lol so, again, no panic needed after one day of not so nice model runs.
  19. I think the relative warmth of May 2003 and 2007 were primarily down to higher minima given the very westerly nature of both months. Days were cool however. 2007 in particular I remember Ten Tors being affected due to the cold sodden conditions and the late May bank holiday was awful with a max of just 10C on the Sunday. There was a marked improvement in the first half of June though.
  20. It was amazing to cross from the cold air through the warm front the car steamed up instantaneously , in seconds. If I could spell bizarre that is what it was. As for the deer strike I have had to tape up my head light. Tom
  21. They are probably panicked by the latest long term met office forecast which is pretty woeful it must be said, if its summer weather you are chasing. There will be a fair chunk of summer gone if that forecast is in anyway accurate. And that is what the models are showing.
  22. Yh could have been mass casualties Nick Re the misting up of the windows yes we came across this after leaving the Mangum Storm it quickly became undercut by the front and the look went from tornadic to outflow, we headed south towards Altus and went from 57f to 83f in the matter of 3 miles and the windows were instantly fogged up, one of the best I have seen in fact
  23. London had quite a few days with 11-13c highs in early May.
  24. It still feels cold. So it’s not an exaggeration.
  25. Looking at he stats 16c in early May is where it should be in London and the SE..so cold is an exaggeration
  26. You're not the only one saying that, quite a number of chasers on Stormtrack saying they'll avoid big risks in Oklahoma. Sounds like a good move, not only to avoid the frustration, but for safety as well. Can you imagine if yesterday panned out as dangerously as it could have?
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