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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Metwatch replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Stuart Norman replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Robert1981 it was wasn’t it I know where you were from those pics mate lol at least I avoided the hail there was none between us and Bromham where I live but some serious rain, wind and lightning. -
Midlands Ice Age Yep, definitely agree with that. I think I was trying to illustrate the difference in type between what we call externally forced changes and internal variability. And also the difference between the shorter-term fluctuations and the longer-term ones. The key question is whether there are any good patterns that we will eventually be able to pick out to give at least somewhat reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal or annual forecasts. At the moment, it doesn't seem we can do much more than take a climatological guess - in other words if you had to take a bet on this summer you'd be safest to go for a degree or so above 1991-2020, say. Models really don't seem to be able to improve on that at that time horizon. My usual rule is that for the UK and NW Europe more generally, predictability falls to little better than climatology by week 3 in almost all cases.
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Stuart Norman replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
matty40s thanks it was pretty intense at one point I wasn’t even ready for that either tbh it’s very early in the year and when I started work in Sharnbrook today 7am it was another late winter early spring day. -
WYW.. Thanks for the above, but I was replying to Pennines note about whether the 'weather' will be the same over the next few years, and not LONG TERM climate change. HIs note suggested that the current situation was here for.... (ever?, he mentioned 10 years) due to the current 'stuck' situation. I was pointing out that natural climate change will be effective a long time before your 30 year averages for CC become effective. I was simply pointing out that , despite CC, that there will still be a large variation in 'regional' temperatures in exactly the same way as there always have been, with areas below the average values as well as those above, caused by the normal rhythms of changeable 'weather' and not climate. I was deliberately talking about the many different regions within earth's atmosphere., not talking about the global climate. 'Weather' changes will not cease with Climate Change. MIA
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Some carrot dangling providing a glimmer of hope, ideally it's a trend setter...
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
WYorksWeather replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
suxer I tend to agree In all seriousness, the forecast skill is very low. I've been sort of casually saying there'll be a flip to dry around mid-April for a week or so now - it'd be nice to have one of my predictions come true. The fact that both models seem to at least be interested in the idea is a start. But I don't trust it until its within day 5 - we've had so many attempts to put an end to this miserably wet pattern that just disappear like mirages as soon as they enter the 7-10 day range. -
raz.org.rain Yep, it's not a universal rule, but the injection of SO2 generally exceeds the opposite effect. However, it is plausible that a warming effect could be kickstarted if undersea volcanoes kicked off a massive methane release, for example. At some point, another Mount Tambora will happen though. However, they are very rare events. That eruption was the largest in recorded history. I actually understated it a bit - we only know of four eruptions of a similar scale since the dawn of agriculture. I still think at the very least, the aftermath of a Tambora-type event would at least temporarily return us to a pre-industrial climate for a few years. But none of us on this forum may live to see it happen.
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Robert1981 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Stuart Norman I was on the A421 at Bedford when the 2 close cg lightning happened it was a big storm for the time of year but got some good photos i posted. -
raz.org.rain More likely to see pigs flying.
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
matty40s replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Stuart Norman Well done mate for doing the best you can, the UK is a long way from proper storm warning systems, and not everyone believes weather geeks ...." there was no offishul warning".. Sometimes, you do what you have to do, and you can only do so much to protect and warn others, if they ignore, and laugh, they may well have to live with those consequences for a very long time. -
raz.org.rain Would be typical. Hope not though.
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raz.org.rain Hope so
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Rush2019 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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raz.org.rain Would be good to know how many wet springs were followed by dry warm summers, its not a combo I think happens that much.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
suxer replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If your idea has ec 46 backing then it's probably not going to verify -
I know some won't agree with me but I'm starting to get that lingering feeling that we'll end up sleepwalking into the hottest and driest summer on record because we'll be too complacent to see it coming.