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  2. North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

    got your 6 foot of snow coming first, tomorrow and Sunday, thaw will be quick Sunday night though
  3. Some patchy sleet and snow across the region tomorrow. Hills most at risk. Some snow possible for a time on Sunday. High ground and the far north and east of the region at highest risk. Any snow turning back to.rain through the day.
  4. 1cm again..... I’m looking forward to 18-22c southern Spain next Thursday for five days.... Tapas and Rioja....
  5. Come on this winter has been much much better than the last few. Where are the days on end of constant double-figure temperatures? Maybe one or two in December, but that’s all this year. There has also been more snow this winter, at least here since 14-15.
  6. A CHART CORRECTION TO MY LAST LONG POST AND THE UPDATED WEEKLY NOAA REPORT ON THE MJO General Matters: Just to prove that I'm capable of producing shorter posts, here's one (well, by my standards it is!). Just a couple of other matters to cover first. Thank you for your kind comments (@Blessed Weather). Malcolm. Re: your correction following that post - I find that one of the best ways to learn is by making a few mistakes along the way. Providing one is corrected in a polite and respectful manner, this can only lead to a positive outcome. I hope that some of the "silent readers" will feel confident enough to post on here and ask questions as well as getting involved in any debates and discussions - again another great way to learn. Unlike as we often see on the model thread, you should always be treated kindly over here. Almost all of us are learners, including the specialists in certain other areas of this vast science which has not been their main focus..On this subject, a big welcome to @Daniel* - please do feel free to participate. Malcolm, I often read some of the NOAA statements too and I know that @nick sussex (or a dark blue "N" now that NetWeather show the first name initial for those that do not provide a profile photograph - they'll quickly run out of background colours!) often posts some of their very useful reports on the MOD - always good to have some updated guidance from well respected sources. As you (Malcolm) now realise, it's so frustrating not being able to get the most up-to-date charts and plots on the latest direction of the atmospheric angular momentum tendency. The WDT site (referenced with a link in my last post) has updated several of their charts today up to January 16th (so a 4 to 5 day jump since yesterday) but most of the charts are still stuck on January 11th. There are some very marginal changes to the downward trend but far too little and far too early to get any coldies' hopes up. We'll need to exercise patience over this. GWO Chart Correction (from my long post yesterday): Yesterday, I posted a GWO forecast chart in my long post. It was up to January 18th. This morning it automatically updated itself to show January 19th which was a little different. It made my comments about that chart slightly inaccurate. I try to copy all the charts across in the same way which is: "save image in a new tab", then click on said tab, then "copy image address" and paste to my post in the pre-submit mode. On some sites like Meteoceil this generally works perfectly but on some sites (eg: these GWO charts and many of the NOAA charts) seem to have a life of their own and update automatically every day. I'm explaining this in detail in the hope that any computer buff or anyone else who's mastered these copying techniques can tell me if there's a better "fool-proof" approach to doing this. I'll try several ways now to see if it produces any better results - so please bear with me during this experiment!. I'll start with the Nicholas Shiraldi "Albany" GWO charts using my standard approach (outlined above): GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 18.1.18GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 19.1.18 Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html Next I'll "copy" and paste the same charts to a word document and copy and paste them back on here (this will mean that the white arrows will not appear (for moving back and forth between the charts): GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 18.1.18 GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 19.1.18 Next I'll simply copy and paste directly from the site to here: GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 18.1.18 GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 19.1.18 Finally, in a similar way to the first method but instead of "copying image to new tab", I'll "copy link to a new tab" before "copy image address": GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 18.1.18 GWO 15 DAY FORECAST FROM 19.1.18 Sorry for the duplications - it drove me half crazy too! Will any method work differently? We'll see tomorrow. Having got everyone suffering from a GWO overdose, I had better jolly well make a sensible comment on the changes. Yesterday the chart showed the AAM ending back well into phase 2. Today we see that it barely makes it back to phase 2 and mostly remains in phase 3. The AAM tendency is still negative but less strongly than recently. it is heading towards the centre which on these charts means the area where there is a weak GWO with no or little signal (no global position) - not that different to the "Circle of Death" on an MJO plot. Where the AAm goes from there is still very uncertain. Please refer to my post for the annotated GWO chart as well as to comments in several earlier posts (like from @Snowy Hibbo who helped me with this bit - thank you). MJO Update Reports from NOAA: Now for something more useful (for some). NOAA produce a detailed weekly report on the MJO. The last one, up to January 15th, was published yesterday. To read the full report, here's the link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf I shall just copy the summary below: Overview  The enhanced convective phase of the MJO has moved over the Maritime Continent through the last week.  Dynamical models show eastward propagation of the MJO signal, with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent for Week-1 and expanding over parts of the western Pacific for Week-2. Dynamical and statistical tools forecast a rapid decay in the signal during Week-1 and Week-2, with the signal rebounding at the end of Week-2. This is likely due to expected Rossby wave activity over the Pacific.  Based on dynamical and statistical model guidance, the suppressed envelope of the MJO is likely to continue to constructively interfere with the base state of La Niña. Enhanced convection is expected over the Maritime Continent, as well as parts of the western Pacific for Week-2.  An active MJO over the Maritime Continent in boreal winter yields a fairly strong teleconnection response in the Northern Hemisphere, though significance for parts of the continental US are low. Typical lagged extratropical circulation responses favor a period of persistent ridging building over the lower-48, especially over the eastern seaboard. I now realise that the MJO forecast chart that I copied from NOAA into my post last night has also updated automatically! Is it just me or does anyone else suffer from this "copying images" problem? I copy many charts into my posts and just do not understand the inconsistency. With these NOAA charts there are less copying options available in the first place. I fully expect the chart below to update tomorrow afternoon from Jan 19th to Jan 20th! It seems that we wait patiently for some charts to update and others do it when we don't want them to (I won't try 4 different copying methods with this one): MJO - NCEP/GEFS 15 DAY FORECAST 19.1.18 TO 2.2.18 Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml The slight overnight change is that the MJO is now forecast to reach phase 6 by day 15. It still looks set to lose amplification with many members showing it moving close to or into the "Circle of Death" or an inactivity period just when it might reach the phases 7, 8 and 1 (which favour HLB). The reasons for this have been stated by several posters on here and also in the NOAA statement. The La Nina induced easterlies may prevent any higher amplification (or increased activity) when it enters the western Pacific phases. I'm still learning about this fascinating relationship and I'll read up on it more (several useful links have been posts on this thread already). That's enough messing around from me. I'm sorry that part of my presentation has been compromised - normal will be resumed soon (I hope!)..
  7. Right - It hasn't been included in Hannah E Attard's compendium of SSW's or it hadn't the last time I looked.
  8. I remember last year we are gonna have the best north-westerly in years and it turned out as a slider, killing the heavy snow showers because of high cloud.
  9. Another heavy snow shower just passed here giving the cars and roads another covering, not that there is much left to cover Anyone have any idea how Sunday will pan out? How long will the snow last before turning to rain etc?
  10. What have you got up there, about 8 inches ?
  11. Some interesting radar watching going on over next 48 hours! Did a model show a chance of wintriness tomorrow for some? Or am I dreaming...
  12. It only lasted a day! Winds were up near 27m/s a couple of weeks later. The incredibly early final warming was 6th March 2016
  13. This was meant to be the best northwesterley in years...typicaly its turned out to be one of the worse.
  14. Somehow that whole thing evaded me...
  15. Light snow here. I imagine after midnight that's it until Sundays fun.
  16. I said that on the Model thread a few weeks ago but was told it doesn't count as a MMW because it was an early final warming.
  17. I have the key. No doubt it will not settle until I walk a quartter of a mile up the road where its 180M LOL
  18. Aye, it does, and in 09/10 we were still finding the dogs ones in the back garden weeks later when it all finally melted.
  19. 2014-15 wasn't too bad here, a winter index of 82, better than all but 3 winters of the 1990s.
  20. It really does say something abou places on the West Coast of NW England and how super duper they are for snow when for as long as I can remember on here now we have had members celebrating hail.
  21. Covering on all surfaces. for once the BBC heavy snow symbol proved correct - its had it for a total of about 30 hours on separate occasions this week and all ive had 3 or 4 dusting to 1 inchers - the rest rain or nothing
  22. Essentially no convection in the stratosphere, high static stability.
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