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  2. Not much time to post but it suddenly looks quite a bit better this morning guys
  3. Today
  4. What seems to not been mentioned in here too much is the potential for some localised flooding to occur with such a mild SW'ly flow and shall low pressure systems not going too far in a hurry, especially on any western slopes in the north. The ECM does offer a tease the milder air may be a bit slower than other runs to sweep right across the country, see if the morning run shows anything similar but the main emphasis for next week will be just how remarkably mild it could get for the first part of next week for some. The other kick in the seat for coldies during this period of model watching was when the outputs did initially show the potential for something colder via a Greenland high, the uppers did not look cold enough for snow with the exception of those couple of GFS runs so its a real kick in the teeth how all this plays out. My next point of interest will of course be the potential for a deep depression, unlike most on here it seems, I do relish a good old Autumn/winter deep low and the potential is there although details are impossible to nail at this stage.
  5. David Plowie doesn't even rhyme with David Bowie and Spready Mercury is just naff... Best left alone after all.
  6. It’s quite possible for it to fall to low levels across parts of Scotland first words from the MetO.
  7. Daily Report At Pollard's Hill, Surrey Recordings Taken At Midnight: Current Conditions: Cloudy Current Temp: 5.9°C Barometer Reading: 1027mb (Steady) Humidity: 43% Past 24 Hours Recordings: Friday 17th November 2017: Max Temp: 9.4°C Min Temp: 1.0°C Rainfall: Nil November 2017 Stats: Temperature: Max Temp Avg: 12.04°C Min Temp Avg: 4.58°C Mean Temp Avg: 8.31°C Highest Daytime Max Temp: 16.4°C on the 1st Lowest Daytime Max Temp: 7.9°C on the 13th Highest Night Min Temp: 9.8°C on the 15th Lowest Night Min Temp: 0.5°C on the 6th Rainfall: Highest 24 Hours Rainfall: 9.4mm on the 11th Total November Rainfall: 21.7mm Pressure: Barometer High 1028mb on the 16th Barometer Low: 1009mb on the 3rd and 4th Yearly 2017 Stats: Temperature: Highest Daytime Max Temp: 33.0°C on 21st June Lowest Daytime Max Temp: 0.8°C on 26th January Highest Night Min Temp: 18.7°C on 19th June Lowest Night Min Temp: -3.6°C on 23rd January Rainfall: Highest 24 Hours Rainfall: 36.9mm on 9th August Total Year Rainfall: 493.0mm Driest Month: 2.1mm...April Wettest Month: 93.2mm...July Pressure: Barometer High: 1038mb on 17th January Barometer Low: 985mb on 27th February
  8. The amount off times I have heard people over the last few years saying that the back groud signals etc etc are favourable for blocking and it's looking good It never comes off . So how you can say December is a write off when it's November the 17th baffles me ? Can't tell the weather 1 week ahead let alone 4,5 and 6 weeks ahead ?
  9. Not looking good again in the 18z with uncle Bartlett 👎〽️
  10. 2/20 GEFS go cold in short term and the same number out of 50 eps members, I'm not writing off cold zonality (you cant) or some of @bluearmy 's 'runners around the base of a trough' scenario but I'm writing off blocking, that's assuming the return to zonality occurs but I really think it will.
  11. Breezy with cloud slowly increasing Temp 6.5c
  12. Yesterday
  13. A few ens going cold in the mid term . Feb you can't be seriously writing off December for any cold spells , it's the middle off November ??
  14. I'm not writing off the first month of winter..details next week are still up in the air!..
  15. The ECM ensembles have trended even worse, the London graph is just about as bad as it gets after being quite promising recently.
  16. A little bit tongue in cheek but half serious, I firmly believe we will be requiring an SSW to enable any blocking and if it comes it will be much further into the season than early to mid Dec, I wholeheartedly disagree with those who suggest that the zonal winds in the stratosphere will not downwell In the 3 years before this there were at least some minor warmings present in Nov, no sign of any here. The stronger zonal winds retreating back up the strat in next few days will only be temporary before they downwell, the wave activity is the only thing that will stop that happening, these wave's are nowhere near potent enough to stop this happening and are weakening again by the end of the run. Ive seen w2 heights of 1200 - 1400m and w1 in the high 2000's before. Also I don't buy into this weak Vortex in November = better for later anymore, I still think the OPI definitely had some merit and was proven by some analoging by Steve Murr, we were just unlucky IMO that year. BUT - a lot of years where a weak vortex and a good Snow advance in October, also had a strong vortex in November but still delivered potent cold snaps in winter, in fact a lot of good winters had very zonal Novembers preceding them, 2010 and 2009 I believe had severe flooding and mild in November to name but 2, This could be that the sooner the vortex gets going properly, the better chance we have of it running out of steam in the middle of winter and thus not having to rely on early final strat warmings to produce a few flakes at the end, I admit this is a new theory I have developed recently and wont get the chance to put it to the test as this period of blocking has put pay to that but I have seen some papers recently on weak vortex's in Nov not staying weak for very long in the last few years, I think it was in the strat thread but I cant remember. There are some things in our favour and if we can keep the La Nina strength to a minimum and enjoy some spells of spotless solar activity, that's not a bad starting position in order to achieve an SSW later on but December - forget it, its a write off.
  17. Frost watch season 17/18

    Second frost of the autumn here, though only a slight covering on shed and car this morning.
  18. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    sunny and crisp Edmonton is still at -11.5c to the 16th..still yet to record a temp above 0c this month.
  19. Was in barrow this evening and it was a chilly old breeze!!
  20. I was surprised it stayed dry , some heavy cloud about .
  21. A groundfrost to start leaving a mainly sunny day max 7 deg min 1 deg
  22. Yet just up the road we had showers all day, again completely against the prediction on the telly!
  23. Welcome to SACRA

    Sorry - I feared that may be the case. Having been through it countless times - I feel for you. **** Virtual Hugs **** That's the best I can do - I know some people (non dog owners) will think oh it was 2 years ago - but as a dog owner - I know that it can still hurt when memories are stirred.
  24. The latest UKMO charts show the battle ground between the polar and sub-tropical air masses across the UK at T72hrs. A big temperature range north to south.
  25. still not decided yet. big differences in the ECM and GFS at day 10 and...
  26. Really Feb ??? You can see it being that bad ? I really hope your wrong and I'm pretty hopefull we are gonna see a better winter than the last few ?
  27. The Gfs 18z shows some remarkably mild weather across southern UK next week with temps into the low to mid teens celsius, possibly 16/17c in the southeast at times..very disappointing for coldies but it's still autumn for another two weeks which should soften the blow...Plenty of time for cold and snow during the next 3 /4 months!
  28. Big shout considering we’ve not seen the PV anything like that organised so far Feb..,.,and it ain’t even winter yet. Heights to the south can’t be there all winter.......can they? ....... surely.
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