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  2. A cold and misty morning at -7c, very nice
  3. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    When will the hi-res models start to bring this into view? Tomorrow?
  4. I don't visit the MOD thread these days but I wouldn't mind betting Sidney's nuts to a -10C isotherm that one or two in there will but a phone call away from a secure unit this morning,.
  5. Double take at this bit Blue. The big three all banging the drum for an inflated high in the transition to retrogression would be a concern. Is that a fair interpretation?
  6. Chill out it's Wednesday the cold air comes in Sunday anything can happen. Espcially when you have the North sea not so many miles away.Don't look at a silly app at this stage it will never pick up the snow.
  7. Yes, a good set of models runs. Nowhere near as immense as yesterdays 6z GFS, but still good enough for plenty of snow chances (and not all convective). Some runs are better than others for widespread snow showers (GEM and UKMO), but on Tuesday most develop a small feature traversing south west which delivers a more organise period of snow. One to keep an eye on as we head towards the weekend.
  8. Oh yes, with the amount of people here who can make guaranteed forecasts beyond the reliable its a wonder there is any uncertainty in predicting the weather at all. Every major meteorological agency across the world should just post here whenever they have jobs going.
  9. SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    I'm planning to stick to the regional thread now. The Mad thread will now switch to hyper sensitive breakdown mode given the initial cold is now pretty much a given.
  10. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Not sure you can say odds on in this setup. Easterly could just as easily be bitter cold and dry at the moment. Depends on angle of flow and what the high does thats over us. ECM hints at this as did a previous GFS run. More runs required and as you say we won't know until Sunday I reckon how likely we are to get a dumping.
  11. I’m struck by how many people on here are clairvoyant , their powers seem to increase after the T144 hour mark !
  12. Stage one (Sunday/Monday) Strong HLB in place ✅ cold heading west ✅ Stage two: (Mid next week) Wait for stage one to be a heck of a lot closer than it currently is! All looking good still this morning folks. Another step closer and no major spoilers, just variations on the theme. You could say, taking the past 24 hours of model runs in account, possibly the uppers have been slightly watered down. But still,... We are, naturally, going to see some imbyisms start to creep in as we near the event. Even if we are lucky enough to achieve a countrywide snow event, some areas are still bound to be significantly more prone than others.
  13. BBC still going with “might be a bit parky”....
  14. Ensembles for London marginally less jaw dropping but frankly still pretty incredible. ECM and GFS might have made us pause for thought this morning but hiccups are best cured by a short sharp shock and we’ve definitely got a cold one of those coming
  15. A lovely winter morning here, the cloud that has plagued the area has gone and it’s frosty with clear skies and a light NE’ly wind. Models continue to churn out very good charts for a cold spell, some great consistency over the last few days with encouraging Met Office updates. Hopefully, this will be a spell to remember with plenty of snow, but cold and sunny would be a good second, imo. A blizzard would, of course, be quite exciting and I’d be a child again lol.
  16. .. and I'd probably look for signs of Polar Low on the GFS first and foremost (post 36hrs to event). GFS was always good at picking out disturbances. like depressions that go on to become Hurricanes etc. Could do with a good blizzard....
  17. ***singing*** But no-one uses the GFS or ECM...didn't you know, didn't you know??? Real men use GEM, It's the model for all of them: So, that's how the model thread will go this morning. Add in a GFS P7 and P13 showing the same as the GEM and the job's a goodun.
  18. Morning all. Another great set of model runs this morning. Best stick to the short range outputs in this situation as we all know out to 240t charts hardly verify but they do indicate some sort of retrogressive set up.All in all, that's one heck of a cold block where ever the high is positioned. So my chart to highlight is the UKMO 96 t, now showing a super extended block to the north east with central pressure heading towards 1050mb. The latest fax for Saturday shows the human input from the Exeter team, note the embedded warm front crossing Western France, as Ian McCaskell would say, " That's about as warm as a Polar Bears picknic " . I think this is probably a section of warmer upper air in the flow, but will not affect cold surface flow. Looking at this same chart the real cold air is heading for South eastern Britain behind the front moving SW from the Baltic countries. Most models indicate this very cold air mass into British Isles during Sunday. Thereafter , an increased chance of convective snow, especially in Eastern Britain but by then we may be looking for troughs in the flow to push through , hence keep a eye on the fax chart human inputs. Should get back later today with a report from our forecast team over here that may shed some light on snow chances for next week. C
  19. With what has been modelled the past few days, any precipitation is likely to be powder snow.
  20. Polar Lows: Models hardly ever predict those. Look around the charts with your chess head on. Where is the 'non cold' or 'non precipitation' zone?
  21. ECM 144 to168 looks wrong the way it moves the Hp cell almost 180 degrees to the NW just looks wrong.
  22. John Hammond in full on ramp mode... https://weathertrending.com/2018/02/20/bitter-quickchat-next-weeks-extreme-cold/ Also explaining the Model Discussion very well!
  23. lol thanks for typing that! I was ready to type but I'm not long up and would of said something different to the post!! lol might be time to use the ignore button in this group very dramatic indeed!
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