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  1. Past hour
  2. Fine morning with mist. Plenty of Ci, temp 7C and no wind
  3. Favourite Inventions!

    I suppose the best phone ever, Nokia 6310/6310i
  4. As I said earlier nothing definitive about next weekend.and ex tropical storms as yet The ecm is completely different to the gfs even at this range. By 12 Saturday it has developed the nest system swinging in from the west far more than the gfs and has a low NW of Ireland with fronts and rain into same, The fronts sweep across the UK developing little disturbances as they (it) go thus a very wet and windy Saturday night and Sunday before the fronts reach the North Sea. At the same time Lee has lost it's identity to the west and Maria a way west of Cornwall and is about to drift south east and do the same.
  5. Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    yes, definitely, would rather rain at 13° than 2°
  6. A dry and cloudy start with no breeze Temp 13.6c
  7. Favourite Inventions!

    that's not an invention
  8. Today
  9. I suspect I may have been grabbing a little at straws last night leaning very much towards the latest EPS without NOAA being that keen. Need to wait and see what today brings forth for the medium term Yes I think it needs aday or two to be more sure of just which way the anomalies will go. Although the EC-GFS outputs have twice this month ourdone NOAA, something that never used to happen.
  10. Overcast, misty after thick fog earlier, dry, a low of 11.6 C
  11. Favourite Inventions!

    the cat
  12. In Memoriam

    not much of a surprise tbh... sad, but i didnt like him in benidorm...
  13. .... yes there is, when its sourced from a cold direction. nothing worse then cold wet, i prefer snow to that.
  14. I suspect I may have been grabbing a little at straws last night leaning very much towards the latest EPS without NOAA being that keen. Need to wait and see what today brings forth for the medium term Meanwhile today and tomorrow are not looking at all bad for most areas. With a light S/SE drift temps in some areas could reach 23C and with the front fizzling out it could be quite sunny once early morning mist has cleared. The caveat to this is that by tonight and tomorrow morning the next low will arrive west of Ireland and the associated fronts encroaching so wind and cloud will increase from the west as tomorrow progresses but still time for most places away from the west to have a pleasant day. The aforementioned fronts cross the country later on Weds and overnight to be in the North sea by 12z Thursday with the next depression 970mb and associated fronts to the west of Ireland. The low drifts up towards Iceland and the fronts, after some transient ridging Thursday, bring more rain to most areas on Friday.before clearing into the North Sea by evening. Thus by 12 Saturday we again have transient ridging but ex tropical storms Maria and Lee are girding their loins out west. They quickly get organised and form a deepening depression that tracks quickly ENE on a very strong upper flow and could well bring gusts in excess of 70 kts to northern Scotland in the early hours of Monday.Windy and wet for the rest of the UK on Sunday as well But it must be stressed that this depends on the precise track and intensity of the low and this is not as yet anywhere near definitive and for the moment the more southerly track and the duck southeast does appear to be off the table. . The low clears away to the NE as quickly as it arrived leaving the Azores to ridge in but best left here. So all in all after a good couple of days then changeable with rain and gales over the weekend and beginning of next week.
  15. Hurricane Maria

    Keeping my eye on the NHC forecast for the remnants of Maria and Lee, as models are now starting to show both systems combining to form a deep extra-tropical cyclone off the coast of Scotland by Sunday. Where and when exactly is still changing day-by-day, but if the trend continues southwards then Ireland, Scotland, Northern England will be getting hit by substantial gales.
  16. Yesterday
  17. The danger with La Nina is always that you get tropical subsidence and stronger than average sub-tropical high pressure zones enhancing the westerly flow and pressure gradient. My personal thoughts are that the -QBO in combination with lower solar activity and the relaxation of the PDO (neutral or negative) will tip the balance towards a -AO/-NAO winter albeit i don't expect Oct-Dec to be especially cold. If we are going to get a <1C below average winter month then it will be Jan-March.
  18. Daily Report At Pollard's Hill, Surrey Recordings Taken At Midnight: Current Conditions: Cloudy Current Temp: 14.8°C Barometer Reading: 1021hPa (Rising) Humidity: 64% Past 24 Hours Recordings: Monday 25th September 2017: Max Temp: 18.5°C Min Temp: 14.5°C Rainfall: 2.7mm September 2017 Stats: Temperature: Max Temp Avg: 19.33°C Min Temp Avg: 10.63°C Mean Temp Avg: 14.98°C Highest Daytime Max Temp: 22.9°C on the 4th Lowest Daytime Max Temp: 15.9°C on the 16th Highest Night Min Temp: 14.5°C on the 25th Lowest Night Min Temp: 7.1°C on the 22nd Rainfall: Highest 24 Hours Rainfall: 6.7mm on the 18th Total September Rainfall: 32.3mm Pressure: Barometer High 1023hPa on the 1st and 23rd Barometer Low: 994hPa on the 10th Yearly 2017 Stats: Temperature: Highest Daytime Max Temp: 33.0°C on 21st June Lowest Daytime Max Temp: 0.8°C on 26th January Highest Night Min Temp: 18.7°C on 19th June Lowest Night Min Temp: -3.6°C on 23rd January Rainfall: Highest 24 Hours Rainfall: 36.9mm on 9th August Total Year Rainfall: 438.1mm Driest Month: 2.1mm...April Wettest Month: 93.2mm...July Pressure: Barometer High: 1038hPa on 17th January Barometer Low: 985hPa on 27th February
  19. So, given this, what do you expect early doors this year then? I can only see anything more than a moderate nina being detrimental to our winter chances.
  20. I was actually referencing 2011-2012 which was close in strength to 2005-2006. Although i suspect we got a tad lucky with the severity i have always believed that the early cold of 2010-2011 was a kind of aftereffect caused by the winter of 2010 and the significant forcing of the seasonal wavelengths. I'm a strong advocate that events in one year can effect the next, nicely shown by the early final warming in 2016 leading to a struggling vortex last winter. ... With regards to La Nina i am personally now jumping on the moderate train. One of the great things about the hurricane season being August-Oct is that we are nicely able to take a hindsight look at the atmospheric indicator for the coming winter. As you see below, last season saw a more or less neutral state (though we did head to a weak Nina) with both the pacific and atlantic basins a little above average. This season however has a whopping La Nina signal with a subdued Pacific and well above average Atlantic. This for me indicates that the atmosphere right now is leading the ocean in terms of driving a deeper Nina to come.
  21. Cafe chill out - aka Banter - The 2nd Edition

    i can't be weebled to watch it, can you tell me what you know so far
  22. Premier League Discussion

    Well that was frustrating. Should have been ahead first half but didn't bother second half. Come away feeling frustrated and angry. Better than usual, most Pulis matches leave me feeling empty!
  23. Hurricane Maria

    And no doubt dragging more humid crap along with her.
  24. Not particularly pleasant today; far too muggy. Nothing worse than rainy weather when the air is sourced from a warm direction. I really wish that Azores High would <insert profanity here> off.
  25. Flying from Manchester... great deal with Iceland air.... yep saw that Monday looks a bit breezy... looking good atm for high pressure ridging Iceland 3-5th (gfs) so maybe just maybe clear nights fingers crossed just hope the aurora appears...
  26. Cafe chill out - aka Banter - The 2nd Edition

    OMG, watching How to stay young. I'm done for
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