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  1. Today
  2. raz.org.rain An early plume there with heat building over Spain and north Africa. A sign of things to come?
  3. I found August 2007 to be a reasonable month and although it had a cooler CET, it was a million times better than the following year!
  4. August 2007 was the best month of the summer here. It was a dreadful summer with below average temps and lots of rain but August was drier and warmer with one warm and sunny day reaching 25c. Autumn arrived early this year for the trees however I do remember a calm autumn as for colours this was one of the best autumnal displays I had seen here and many trees weren’t bare until December so a good autumn to be fair lacking the deep Atlantic Lows we usually get late in the year.
  5. Yes, I believe when the wet pattern does finally end, we will be in for a prolonged dry period. However, what seems to be more and more apparent these days is no matter whether it's a wet or dry period, it will be warm!
  6. Yesterday
  7. damianslaw Although I don't personally remember June 1998, I would say June 2008 was considerably better... the month had a fair bit of sunny weather varying from warm to occasionally hot to cool. Overall dry though, bar a few days. A lot of July 2008 I would say was worse than 1998, but the hot spell later in the month beat anything 1998 delivered. The Augusts are the most different for sure. raz.org.rain Funnily enough I did catch the iphone weather app with an 18C and 19C for the end of next week before it downgraded to mid teens. Not that they're accurate at all, but maybe whatever feeds the app is on to something.
  8. Broke my March record for rain. 146mm. My high wind gust record for March went as well. 52mph.
  9. raz.org.rain certainly wouldn't surprise me!
  10. It's rather clear now that this synoptic possibility quoted above that I deemed slightly lower likelihood around 40% is closer to the mark for the second week of April. Wetter conditions continuing, especially further south and then western UK later on, confidence rating in this being 70% A widespread drying trend from the northwest is less likely now for week 2 of April as a whole, would deem this 10% Upto 10-11th April, but still expect possible further wintry showers/longer spells of wintry precipitation on occasion in north and still it overall looks less wet than south at first, the wetter conditions favour the northwest/west for a time later week 2. Potentially still warmer by mid April in the south as the blocking shifts around slightly with a southwest to northeast elongated trough/areas of low pressure over us and especially to our west/southwest with higher pressure still over close to Greenland, heights also build to our southeast over central Europe but any drier than average spell over the UK and northwest Europe most likely from end of week 2 at the earliest, most likely for far north/ and or the south/southeast of England if it where to happen but the signal only loosely favouring a proper drying trend by then for now, with unsettled weather the main theme before then. Causing potentially large rainfall totals. Take care.
  11. A side effect if this long very wet spell is the price of straw is rocketing About a third of winter wheat crops have been drowned or never sown and if spring sowing is delayed till end of April yields of grain and straw will be reduced dramatically.
  12. I remember Atlantic 252 yes, I heard about it, but was working nights and missed it. Just got the slush in the morning. I saw about 5mins of falling snow a few weeks ago, but other than that...nothing for two years. I miss it!!
  13. Largest hail on record for the UK in the month of March it seems today!
  14. LeeKay/ omg, I'm so sad to hear that. I hope that you're bearing up. I know the love of and for cats, my thoughts are with you xx.
  15. Robert1981 it was wasn’t it I know where you were from those pics mate lol at least I avoided the hail there was none between us and Bromham where I live but some serious rain, wind and lightning.
  16. Midlands Ice Age Yep, definitely agree with that. I think I was trying to illustrate the difference in type between what we call externally forced changes and internal variability. And also the difference between the shorter-term fluctuations and the longer-term ones. The key question is whether there are any good patterns that we will eventually be able to pick out to give at least somewhat reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal or annual forecasts. At the moment, it doesn't seem we can do much more than take a climatological guess - in other words if you had to take a bet on this summer you'd be safest to go for a degree or so above 1991-2020, say. Models really don't seem to be able to improve on that at that time horizon. My usual rule is that for the UK and NW Europe more generally, predictability falls to little better than climatology by week 3 in almost all cases.
  17. matty40s thanks it was pretty intense at one point I wasn’t even ready for that either tbh it’s very early in the year and when I started work in Sharnbrook today 7am it was another late winter early spring day.
  18. WYW.. Thanks for the above, but I was replying to Pennines note about whether the 'weather' will be the same over the next few years, and not LONG TERM climate change. HIs note suggested that the current situation was here for.... (ever?, he mentioned 10 years) due to the current 'stuck' situation. I was pointing out that natural climate change will be effective a long time before your 30 year averages for CC become effective. I was simply pointing out that , despite CC, that there will still be a large variation in 'regional' temperatures in exactly the same way as there always have been, with areas below the average values as well as those above, caused by the normal rhythms of changeable 'weather' and not climate. I was deliberately talking about the many different regions within earth's atmosphere., not talking about the global climate. 'Weather' changes will not cease with Climate Change. MIA
  19. Thank you @SollyOlly His heart stopped at 10:32pm 30th January 2023, i miss him every day.
  20. Oliver, we had decent snow very early hours on 3rd Dec, decent event but thawed later same day
  21. Some carrot dangling providing a glimmer of hope, ideally it's a trend setter...
  22. suxer I tend to agree In all seriousness, the forecast skill is very low. I've been sort of casually saying there'll be a flip to dry around mid-April for a week or so now - it'd be nice to have one of my predictions come true. The fact that both models seem to at least be interested in the idea is a start. But I don't trust it until its within day 5 - we've had so many attempts to put an end to this miserably wet pattern that just disappear like mirages as soon as they enter the 7-10 day range.
  23. raz.org.rain Yep, it's not a universal rule, but the injection of SO2 generally exceeds the opposite effect. However, it is plausible that a warming effect could be kickstarted if undersea volcanoes kicked off a massive methane release, for example. At some point, another Mount Tambora will happen though. However, they are very rare events. That eruption was the largest in recorded history. I actually understated it a bit - we only know of four eruptions of a similar scale since the dawn of agriculture. I still think at the very least, the aftermath of a Tambora-type event would at least temporarily return us to a pre-industrial climate for a few years. But none of us on this forum may live to see it happen.
  24. Stuart Norman I was on the A421 at Bedford when the 2 close cg lightning happened it was a big storm for the time of year but got some good photos i posted.
  25. raz.org.rain More likely to see pigs flying.
  26. Stuart Norman Well done mate for doing the best you can, the UK is a long way from proper storm warning systems, and not everyone believes weather geeks ...." there was no offishul warning".. Sometimes, you do what you have to do, and you can only do so much to protect and warn others, if they ignore, and laugh, they may well have to live with those consequences for a very long time.
  27. I may well have said it before, but that's one hell of a beautiful cat, @LeeKay/! Really windy here tonight. Bins all over the place!
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