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Spring 2024
In Absence of True Seasons replied to Weather-history's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
SunSean Agree. We basically skip Spring in such set-ups (Spring here meaning something actually different, more useable and more pleasant than the winter weather prior), and get a 2-month minimum extension of December-like dross. Exactly the same as last year. I wouldn't be surprised if most of May is cool and cloudy and then out of nowhere we get the week-long heatwave in June with zero transition or steady shift to summery weather. Sure, May *might* be better, but the start of it certainly won't be, and by that point, we've wasted away most of Spring already. May is the final third of Spring and the latter half sort of bleeds into summer anyway (or it should, at least), so the time for high Spring is well past. Getting 17c-20c days in May isn't some grand feat or sign of a major pattern shift tbh. It's very expected weather in May especially for the SE. Such days I expected here and there during April too. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Howie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
jamesthemonkeh This is getting ridiculous now! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
jamesthemonkeh replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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...we just need higher pressure. Things like infill, or clouding over, or afternoon showers will keep happening whilst we have relatively low pressure in charge. We need a solid high at or above 1025-1030mb. We haven't had that for any length of time since early January.
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Spring 2024
In Absence of True Seasons replied to Weather-history's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Dare i watch the GFS 06Z I'm sure the polar bears will love the HP. Don't worry about us all in Northern Europe stuck under another month of cloudy, cool, wet dross lol -
Stabilo19 Because the new sunshine sensor under reports, so cant be compared to old data, or other locations in the UK or Europe.
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Moans, ramps and banter
In Absence of True Seasons replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
2 / 3 hours of sun this morning and now in comes the cloud, like clockwork. No doubt it'll all clear again this evening after dinner-tine lol. We genuinely need the starts to align in this country to get an actually sunny, or even mostly sunny day. Utterly infuriating. -
B87 why do raw sunshine values need to be corrected?
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Another clear blue start to 100% overcast by 10am. Worst climate ever!
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Up here in Tromsø it’s been incredibly sunny the last weeks. Dry easterlies but fairly cold. Maximum temp so far this year was on 10th April at 7.8°C, but the last week temps have struggled to reach 3°C during the day and fall well below freezing overnight. Still over 60cm snow in the garden but roads are clear now thankfully. View from the office today
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Derecho I'm sure that's coming our way. Forecast is for some rain later.
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danm Meanwhile here it is drizzly and only 6C
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
- Today
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Moans, ramps and banter
*Stormforce~beka* replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Walked out with Sophie and she was excited. Look mummy pure blue sky. That's how rare it is here ... Even my child notices! -
Yes exactly, I just don’t understand why the Met Office only publish the raw figures but not the corrected ones. Without that calculation you can never really know the exact actual sunshine hours for a particular location, unless you look at the anomaly maps which give a percentage range.
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A dry night with long clear periods until well into the early hours. Clouding over before dawn with an occasional spot of showery rain. At 0800 g.m.t Temp; 6.6c 24 hr max; 8.2c 24 hr min; 0.8c Grass min; -2.6c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t; Trace Mean wind speed; 13 mph W 6 oktas Cu, Sc and Ac Vis; 15 miles
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So anything mild now appears to have been pushed back until early next week at best. 5/6c overnight isn't a problem but when it only rises to 7/8c during the day it feels just as cold. On a different note, just watched the met-office online forecast (for the first time) and apparently -3 in England in late April is 'nothing unusual'.
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richie3846 As I said in the sunshine thread, that calculation won't work for Brize Norton or other stations. Every station, annoyingly has their own percentage of under-reporting. Some of the absolute worst stations for recording sunshine way under- Herstmonceux, Wakefield, Almondbury etc Poor under reporting of sunshine- Heathrow, Charlwood etc A touch under actual value- Shoeburyness, Leconfield etc Close to normal- Manston, Brize Norton, Tibenham etc
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Dare i watch the GFS 06Z "But...but...but the SSW will be different this time guys!" There's no other way around it- SSW = Sudden Spring Wrecker. We don't get a Spring if we get an SSW. The earliest we can expect ANY kind of settled sunny weather would be late May now but it's still a roll of the dice depending on all this crap northern blocking nonsense so we may just get the dullest year ever, time will tell!