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  1. Past hour
  2. Dry cloudy start Temp 9.6c
  3. Little change in outlook this morning. Essentially high pressure dominating but being centred to the W/SW systems will continue to swing around it on the strong upper flow, bringing strong winds and rain at intervals in the north and thus, with the south remaining dry with light winds and relatively sunny, maintaining the N/S divide. The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight As can be readily seen the high pressure ridging north east is the dominating feature which has resulted in a pretty clear and cold night in most places with some patchy mist and fog, the exception being the south where the front is still lingering. The 0300 surface chart illustrates this well So after a frosty and misty start in many places today will sunny with light winds apart from the far south and south west where cloud may well hang around. This leads on to a another clear night in most places. not as cold as last night, with again some mist and fog around but in the early hours cloud, rain and a strengthening south westerly wind will arrive in the north west, courtesy of a front associated with a low in the Iceland area. The front will track slowly south east through Friday, tending as usual to weaken en route, but still bringing patchy to areas as far south as northern England and Wales Elsewhere dry and relatively sunny. Overnight and through Saturday the front continues south but again weakening considerable and in fact Saturday has the makings of being quite a warm day in many areas. In particular the north east and eastern regions in the warm south westerly and further south where the cloud breaks.The exception being N. Ireland, western Scotland and the north west of England where rain will encroach courtesy of a frontal system associated with another deep low that has tracked north east into the Iceland area. By Sunday the low has deepened and tracked way north of Iceland but the strong flow around the high centred to the south west brings strong winds and rain to the north as the cold front tracks south east down the country. to the south of this sunny intervals and quite warm By Monday a deep trough has tracked east to be over north east North America which has the effect of amplifying the high pressure to the west of the UK which in turn veers the wind over the latter and this will be quite strong, perhaps near gale force in the north with some patchy rain from another frontal system, Drier and calmer in the south but with variable cloud not a particular warm day.
  4. Turnedoutniceagain

    Thursday 18th October weather observations

    Dry, still & chilly +4.5c
  5. Today
  6. Dry clear and cold Temp 5.7C, Barometer 1027mb rising, Wind F1 NNW, Rainfall nil
  7. 38.5*C

    Winter 2018/19

    I don't think we should be taking any long range forecasts as the gospel. Lessons should've been learnt by now! But the one thing im sure of this winter is it will be alot colder and darker
  8. jvenge

    Winter 2018/19

    The good thing about accuweather is that you can see how their previous winter forecasts fared. Still, they at least stick their neck out and do it.
  9. Walsall Wood Snow

    Winter 2018/19

    To be fair, I don't think any 'profesional' forecaster would be so bullish to forecast a dominance of easterly air during Winter into the UK anyway, especially this far out. I could be wrong,but it seems they'd rather play it safe to me, in which case if such was to ever occur we'd be unlikely to hear of it from them until it was almost upon us, which would be advertised by the models long before we heard about it from them.
  10. Yesterday
  11. Agree it was the most spectaculaer event ever though - ridiculous - couldn't see a metre in front of your face.
  12. I can only speak for myself being in Birmingham (higher parts of South Birmingham (over 200m) but I think this is a popular misconception that it was an all powder snow event, yes the dustings and some of the heavy showers on the Tuesday 5th and Wednesday 6th were powder but later on on the 7th, there was an occlusion associated with a small low which made its way westward, it was only around 7pm when the temp rose from -8c to -5c that those massive flakes really started to appear, by around midnight it was rougly just under a foot - it only really started around 5pm so about 11 inches in a few hours but definitely due to larger flakes with moisture getting injected into the trough.
  13. Lovely spell of weather here since Sunday last. Looks like it could last well into October with just the odd spot of rain or the odd shower based on latest models. Will take that and then hopefully some nice crisp frosty weather to usher in November before we go snow chasing again for 4 months or so.....love this time of year......
  14. Well I would like to relive the Burn's Day storm of 1990 I think. I was but a tender 11 year old at school watching tiles, sheds and goodness knows what whipping around the place. Too dangerous to send us all home. Luckily our Victorian buildings were made of stern stuff. I remember bits but not the savagery of the wind. It may not be recalled as often as 1987's storm but for me it was something I would want to relive but not repeat.!
  15. Roger J Smith

    Winter 2018/19

    If that's in reference to the Accu-weather forecast, I don't think they are implying an easterly regime for the UK there, though. But I agree, lots of combinations can occur.
  16. feb1991blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    You can still have it hot in Southern Europe and with High pressure but then have a trough over France and an Easterly into UK - there are many different combinations you can have, its not always simple.
  17. feb1991blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    Sorry France!!!!!!
  18. Very light drizzle all day here, very wet. It did not amount to much though, just 2.4mm. Temp maxed out at 14.4°C.
  19. Mapantz

    Winter 2018/19

    I have a weather site. However, no seasonal forecast this year due to my super-computer being down for repairs after a Windows 10 update started randomly deleting files.
  20. Roger J Smith

    Winter 2018/19

    The Accu-weather outlook is hard to assess because it conceals any reference to anomalies, other than suggesting a positive temperature outcome in Hungary (that would have to be the case because Hungary is not very often "warm" in winter). Cold shots in European Russia, they say ... well that has about a 98% chance of verifying at random. And frequently windy in western Europe could cover a variety of winter types, but I am thinking they are seeing similarities to 2013-14 after a spring and summer similar to 2013? (cold March, hot July). We all recall the non-stop parade of storms in the winter of 2013-14. I would say there is some similarity to my outlook but that I expect the cold shots to wander far and wide from Russia, as to wet France, I think that would verify well relative to normal and my scenario does not place the warm anomaly in southeast Europe so much as the eastern Med perhaps. The source region would be the north African flow but coming out more zonally. Noting an anomalously warm western Mediterranean, that might argue more for very wet in all of Spain and Italy with France perhaps a secondary wet zone along with those.
  21. Sunny76

    Autumn 2018

    Yes, that’s the one. Already feels like a long time ago for some reason.
  22. I don't think we will be as amplified as this quite so early - but I think this kind of chart has a decent chance of featuring this winter season, given the combination of background drivers in place. For early November I think the high a bit flatter with the jet curving over the top - but a month later? Not impossible.
  23. Yep - don't disagree with these options. I've just been musing elsewhere about what causes core features to embed over a season or part season...and my initial thoughts are more around the -EPO and NNE jet at least for the next few weeks. With Nino gradually increasing in strength and appearing to harness a high GWO orbit plus low solar/sluggish? vortex start, I wonder what our chances are of seeing sufficient amplification later on for a scandy high to enter the frame with a fairly constant retrograde signal? I'm hoping for the holy grail there (might even see a Murr sausage appear...) but we have to acknowledge that low solar, weak Nino and inconclusive QBO (would be great if the eQBO could hang a bit in the mid strat) gives us a very positive background signal. We certainly aren't looking at a raging Nina alongside a major wQBO and lots of solar forcing! All good. Glad to have seen the back of summer - didn't like it at all. Fingers crossed for white gold soon, even if it is bound to be the northern brigade that see it first |-[ Any cold initially from the north to start with, and later into January more from NE and E. That's my current call.
  24. feb1991blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    BTW - I like your forecast Roger - great work - just hope it comes off.
  25. feb1991blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    I can proudly report that its your imagination Roger, I definitely do not own one - although I am thinking of starting though eventually! - doing youtube videos.
  26. Roger J Smith

    Winter 2018/19

    Is it my imagination, or does everyone in the U.K. now have a weather site?
  27. feb1991blizzard

    Winter 2018/19

    Spain being wet isn't necessarily indicative of a +NAO.
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