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  2. It's just one run Shaky and totally different to the 12z,lets see where it sits in the ens soon there is still lots to be resolved for next week what has me interested a weeny bit is that there is slightly more warming on this run compared to the 12z elongating the pv
  3. Such a shame!!it looks like we gona miss out on an early cold snap with the frustrating west based nao unless it shifts east in the morning!!was looking rosey early in the week!!never mind still got all winter to look forward to!!
  4. Tornado watch issued in the SE by TORRO. Interestingly they don't actually update their website anymore, but rather their Facebook page.
  5. Dry with increasing cloud and also becoming breezier not as cold as last night with the cloud Temp 9.8c
  6. And now it's dropping very quickly. No more rain at the moment although there was a flash of lightning to the west not long ago. 12.9°C
  7. On a break in New Forest and just heard two deep rumbles to our SW - around Wimborne Minster showing a few strikes on lightning maps. Just wondering weather to go for a drive to see if we can catch a strike or two from a vantage point: or just stay in and eat chocolate truffles
  8. Meanwhile we might get an Easterly on this current GFS by 384, but this time if it does it will be a warm Easterly.
  9. There is a lot of flip flopping going on with the models at present with regards to next week,all good model watching at the moment,will the cold win out or will we get a warm plume from the south? the ICON seems to want the northerly again just like last evening,can it be trusted? well looking at the scatter from the gefs/ecm ens shannon's in the house(this for my local) gefs/ecm means at day ten show ridging still into Greenland with main chunk of TPV in Siberia,it doesn't look to out of the ordinary for the southern half of the uk and maybe warmer than of late with some pleasant weather with some patches of fog and frost at night the latest from cpc 8-14 day outlook showing stronger ridging into Greenland than last evenings and the NAO still into neg values gfs 18z rolling out and it looks quiet pleasant for the uk at this point.
  10. Yes, what we cannot afford though is a half baked effort, all that will do is delay the strengthening and thus delay any MMW.
  11. The only long range forecast model singing for a colder than average winter, yea looks like a persistent Greenland high -NAO..
  12. Seems I'm in a gap between two lively lines of showers at the moment. Feels surprisingly cold out there considering it's 14.0’C
  13. @feb1991blizzard seems it wasn't just me seeing the warming potential in the charts...
  14. Just seen a flash of lightning here in Christchurch, popped outside and my god it's windy! And cold Looks to be passing to the north east of where I am.
  15. Today
  16. Massive downpour here, with hail and gusty winds. Rain rate of 128mm/hr at 23:06 And now a long deep roll of thunder!
  17. Keep an ear out tonight if you're in the south - could see some thunderstorms tracking north off the channel.
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