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  3. Blast from the past has been calling a near ice age winter for some time Steve Murr on his usual easterly cometh and major northern blocking for about a week. Tamara on the other hand sits on fence.
  4. The jma and mean at 264. the gefs 850hpa temps(cet)
  5. Evening,late to the party tonight,sorry! but what a great set of runs this evening/tonight from a sobering morning of output of which was a bit of a downgrade and just shows you how finely balanced the weather can be,expect more chopping and changing to come as always when it comes to nailing narnia down to t0 what is certain is the block to our NE with an easterly of sorts,here are the latest wind directions from De-Built as you can see,all members(well 90 odd%) are going for this now,remember what i posted som days ago about getting more members on board?:- the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly's,the Atlantic is dead in the water there and hints of a trough forming out towards Siberia the latest from the NAO/AO still tanking 10-hpa zonal mean zonal wind we are in a good position here but will we land with the lottery ticket? i liked this.
  6. We'll put. I would say though some of your statements are posted with too much confidence or certainty on this subject considering the lack of scientific proof. Your language should always reflect this or it just comes across as misleading
  7. In the end the day turned out okay, dry after the early rain and very mild in the afternoon with a max temperature of 14C. Good going as the sun never really made an appearance. Lovely sunset accompanied by the usual skeins of geese heading home for the evening.
  8. I’ve been running around today none stop but I did manage to have a few words to myself in the car about the weather today (yes I’m mad) it was really quite warm today, didn’t need a jacket till around 16.00. Sooooo glad it has stopped raining, does anyone know the rain totals roughly over the last few days??? Maybe an interesting week or so ahead, can you imagine the S word so early in the season??
  9. Dry clear and calm not overly cold despite the lack of cloud cover Temp 8.3c
  10. Yesterday
  11. I can just about squint that When you get to my age I have an excuse
  12. Not wishing to split hairs, sorepaw1, but at 1mb increments, it shows 979.
  13. I have been talking to Feb1991 a fair bit about prospects this winter. He will tell you that as far as I'm concerned, I see little sign of mobility next month. This being said, I favour a UK HP scenario predominating rather than a true high latitude block dominated month. Interestingly this fits rather well with the prognosis from Tamara and Catacol WRT a slightly flatter pattern next month. Bear in mind that December could still return a decently below average month CET wise with this set up, owing to minimal sun strength and the fact we'd be likely to see some hard frosts and struggling day time temperatures! January to be THE month as far as this winter is concerned (IMO)
  14. How about this from the GFS parallel............................
  15. I haven't seen the precipitation chart but could that be a front with front edge snow? Turns out after further analysis be something else! Ha
  16. yes some great looking charts within the 18z GEFS
  17. And the beeb have backtracked a little with their monthly outlook, they are suggesting a spell of easterly winds but no mention of snow , maybe not suprising... They still expecting a return of the Atlantic earlish December with west or south west winds.. All in all the theme until the last paragraph is cool/cold..Hopefully the long term prognosis is incorrect..
  18. The ECM mean is a long way from the Op so we can probably expect something different from the 00z run.
  19. Just thought I'd post this with a marvellous end to the day Or something for you to wake up too T+300 HRS granted but a 964mb low from the North and a block to the west. Goodnight all or Good morning
  20. 18Z swingometer Despite an OP run that was rather benign till the latter stages, the ensembles are still pretty good. All to play for
  21. The only people who will be wrong with regard to long range weather predictions based upon teleconnections are those making forecasts based upon them, It is certainly a worthwhile pursuit because obviously the weather is physics driven and eventually accuracy will improve but we have so little data that it is impossible to determine cause from effect and we have no idea if our starting state is anomalous aside from assumption. I love the competing theories, egos aside, but the reality is what is proved to be "true" one year will fall flat on its face the next. If that were not the case people could consistently correctly predict weather patterns a month ahead, the telling thing is that people with opposing theories claim as much now. Between facts and reality there is opinion and opinion should never be stated as fact. So long as people put forward their theories on teleconnections as theories and they are tested in the public forum that can only help progress and rather than competition there should be comradery between the various proponents because the only guarantee right now is that no one person has a handle on this. Can't wait to find out if the pattern flattens out or remains amplified into December and thank you all who have researched this and put forward your ideas.
  22. Ensembles central England skewed by a few mild runs but good grouping for quite a few of the perbs
  23. Steve Murr? Never boring when he posts! Don't think I've ever seen him post a mild chart!
  24. FV3 at T168, more evidence that the high will set up such to deliver cold air in the direction of the UK: 'Night all.
  25. Great chart @tinybill plenty of ppn around, hopefully as we get nearer the time uppers become even more conductive for snow
  26. Superb post from Catacol as usual. Sticking with the 10 day Blocking theme: how about these charts for means? Slowly generating consensus for Greenland height rises. As both C and Tamara allude, given that the intervening easterly burst is unlikely to provide serious snowfall (early season, relatively benign uppers etc), this is really the key thing to nail down if we are to attain some “proper” winter weather out of this. Very encouraging though and certainly, irrespective of wintery outcomes, a period to analyse carefully when it comes to attaining HLBs in the future Edit: just to reinforce my point, the lack of snowfall I was referring to wasn’t intended to dampen the excitement - as I said, the setup is heading towards an incredibly favourable one for snowfall. But this chart for E/SE england shows that despite the E’ly and the PPN next week, the snow row remains 0. The E’ly helps facilitate the westward advection of the high though so it is all part of the puzzle...
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