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  2. 16:49 18.4°C, 52% humidity, few clouds. Well the sun has cum out, and it has warmed up nicely now
  3. Estona

    20190225071952.JPG

    so are you using photo editing? I also wonder what you think about it http://fixthephoto.com/blog/retouch-tips/4-photo-editing-levels-in-1-photograph.html
  4. Please don't remind me, I got to the Brighton Coast half an hour too late
  5. Agreed, looking at the 850-500hpa Lapse Rates, these looking extremely steep especially towards the middle of the week. So I would expected prolific lightning from any elevated convection.
  6. Looking at the 6z operational ...for the last time!!!..there's a risk of thunderstorms next week, for most of next week!!!!!!
  7. Here is the icon 12s take on it, it's very warm in most places, but the core of the heat remaining that bit further East.
  8. Surely though there might be troughs/shortwaves in the flow which could provide the lift to erode and break the cap? A bit like snow in winter.
  9. Just had to re-check the GFS 00z from this morning,and yes,it does have the +26c isotherm making it into the South.
  10. The day a storm out in the East Midlands caused the Olympic Torch relay to be paused (28th June) https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-nottinghamshire-18629401/olympic-torch-relay-halted-by-lightning-in-mansfield
  11. There was a fair deal of warmth elsewhere though. It got upto 31C in Hull I think and it hit over 32C-33C elsewhere on a few days. Short in length but a pretty decent spell of heat. I reckon if the 06z GFS came off a few areas would get into the mid 30s and perhaps a few favoured spots getting a bit higher if the hot uppers persist longer.
  12. Yes a can of petrol doesn't do anything without a lit match. Certainly surface based convection is off the table
  13. It's dark out to the West at the moment. I was going to take a snap, but I'm saving my memory card for next week's Supercells.
  14. Looking at many of the operational models for next Monday midnight (96 hours in, expect for the latest 06Z GFS and ICON where I’ve had to use the 90 hour charts), and they all generally agree on the same idea... 06Z GFS 00Z ECMWF: 00Z UKMO: 00Z GEM: 06Z ICON: And yep, even the NAVGEM : All these runs essentially showing a plumey sort of scenario over us - a sausage High Pressure system getting dragged over Northern UK, with an upper and surface Low Pressure system getting cut-off and caught underneath to the South-West of the UK. This bringing up some very warm, humid, air over Northwards, especially over South and Eastern UK. Being 4 days away, there’s still an isolated chance for a differing outcome to occur (for example, the upper Low to the South-West of the U.K could still break through further North-East and beat up the modest upper ridging over Northern UK). But I think the broad pattern for early next week, particularly, looks pretty much nailed! While it’s uncertain how long the very warm, possibly hot, conditions for next week, and how widespread the very warm/hot conditions may be, I think there are certainly real possibilities for some strong thunderstorms and thundery showers to break about in places. Any triggers, such as Low Pressure to the South or South-West of the UK trying to pushing up towards us with attempts of mixing in some less warm upper air around them could help destabilise the plumey-like conditions at times to set off some thundery monsters! ️ For those of you who like very warm or hot conditions, including any storms fans, next week (for the moment), is mostly looking like a yummy, tasty, candy bar for you! Especially so, the further South and East you are in the U.K, as they’re likely to be the areas benefitting the most from the plumey conditions, but perhaps a chance those further North-West could benefit too.
  15. OMG - the Oracle has changed in a MASSIVE way for next week! Look at those temperatures - big increase on just last night
  16. It will be interesting how this all evolves......current modelling infers a set up similar to June 2012 (subject to change though)
  17. Some beefy showers here this afternoon after a dry morning. Just what the garden ordered!
  18. Today
  19. Well there's no doubt that the models have upgraded rather than downgraded next week's heat and humidity so far today (the Gefs 6z mean is astonishing for next week) it's pretty much certain that a plume event is coming with an increasingly continental pattern next week..i.e..very warm / hot and very humid with torrential thunderstorms and hot sunny spells with sticky uncomfortable nights..get the fan ready and get ready to kick the duvet off the bed!
  20. Yes, Chris, in that scenario with other parameters in play (warm moist lower level air, cold pool overspilling aloft to steepen lapse rates, trough etc etc), elevated storms (above the 850hpa boundary) would be the most likely form of convective weather...Surface convection would be limited, with a pretty strong cap (inversion) in the lower atmos
  21. i was living in Exeter In 2000.. the 850 is at 20c but having a look at the records it only reached 23c that day
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