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  2. I know it's not the typical thing to be posted in here, but I came across this while I was switching my energy to this company, and there's actually some really good, thought provoking pics in there (in my opinion at least). So I thought I would share. https://octopus.energy/climate-art/
  3. High ground needed to get above this mist and murk we're currently under...
  4. I think we could well be looking at a Manchester winter index as low as 2013-14 if things remain as poor in February as this month; at the very least we are looking at a winter index as low as some of the other low winter indexes in the last 30 odd years if the pattern does not become more favourable for colder weather soon.
  5. More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.
  6. Well at least some wet and wild weather coming next week. It will clear away the grey dullness hopefully. Big convective showers too. Weather can be interesting without snow too.
  7. Earthquake in NE England?

  8. Interestingly the GFS goes from this: to the previous in a short period of time and the +120hrs FAX chart from last night is really not too far off the GFS before it bombs:
  9. Morning. A day of classic anticyclonic gloom by the looks of it
  10. I think its around -5763546254736046734758634879?
  11. Having viewed the Current Form Book (00z Model Runs), there's nothing remotely Wintry showing up there. I've decided to consult an Ancient Form Book, that of Scottish Meteorologist Alexander Buchan. Buchan Spells Buchan spells are either cold or warm spells that the 19th century Scottish meteorologist Alexander Buchan claimed happened at roughly the same times each year. Through statistical analysis, Buchan claimed to have discerned patterns in the Scottish weather that repeated about the same time of the year. He theorized that these were predictable interruptions (either warmer or colder) in the smooth annual transition of temperatures between the seasons. They are now believed by meteorologists to be random events. Buchan cold spells: 7-14 February 11-14 April 9-14 May 29 June - 4 July 6-11 August 6-13 November So, I'm going for a Snowy, Romantic and Snuggly Valentine's Day (14th Feb). Which falls right at the end of Buchan's February Cold spell. It also happens to be a Day before my Wedding Anniversary. We tried to book Valentine's Day but the Registry Office were fully booked for Valentine's Day. What makes you think I'm taking this seriously?? But my Selection, is a complete "stab in the dark" and just a bit of fun. It's so nice to be entering someone else's Competition, after all those I've "hosted", in the Lounge Forum. Lately, I've been suffering from C.F.S.!! (Competition Fatigue Syndrome). Snowray, any chance I could invite my Wife Colette, as a guest into the Competition? She's not a NW Member but has an uncanny habit of predicting future events, and being correct. So much so, I refer to her as "Septic Peg." Below, myself and "Septic", getting hitched. The Photo was taken outside Sidcup Registry Office. We're flanked by my younger Sister (who was Colette's School Friend), and my Brother-in-Law. I know it's been said before, that I look like her Father, giving her away. My excuse, I am 10 Years older, than Colette. If you squint you may be able to make out some very fine Snow Grains, falling. How cool is that? Snow on your Wedding Day and Nature's own Confetti, although Colette had enough in her hair. Poor thing was shivering, in her thin Wedding Dress and tiny shawl!! Regards, Tom.
  12. Slowly getting there.....back the right side of 8am for sunrise, getting beyond 4:30pm for sunset. This 'winter' will soon be a distant memory!
  13. Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so. As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close. Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to: mean D16> MJO> Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on? For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.
  14. Today
  15. I like a good storm but this is needs downgrade.. Hopefully the GFS is doing its usual biased self towards blowing up low pressure.. Although given the conditions setting up in the Atlantic again it bods well for some nasty storms in the next few weeks
  16. Another day, another set of useless runs. Perhaps a little bit of wintriness over high ground early next week, before it turns milder with SW'erlies once more. No signal for anything drier and more settled returning in the near future either. Might have to chuck in another above average prediction in the Feb CET competition. Been on the money so far for Dec and Jan, easy game this!
  17. Does anyone know what the Manchester winter index is running at
  18. Looks great, would be lovely even to see a few flakes, but met office not having any of it?! They’re not even forecasting much in the way of wind?
  19. Morning all Some of us could see our first low ground snowfall between Monday and Wednesday - short window of opportunity but as I said before I will take that with both hands! One man’s/woman’s trash is another man’s/woman’s treasure! ECM 120 hours GFS for similar timeframe. If you are over 200 meters in the above areas it is game on - low ground will at the very least have a wintry mix! (If these charts come true!) Mention of showers turning increasingly wintry here from Monday with the risk of gales - interesting weather for myself and many other weather enthusiasts. Bring on the snow and severe gale events! It is supposed to be Winter after all! Have a great weekend everyone!
  20. Morning All, temperature still at the overnight low 5.8°C at: 04:37, and overcast & drizzle is the name of the game this morning...
  21. Looks like a lil cold snap next week with the snow row going up to 11 for London on the latest GEFS!
  22. For once the 00z follows the 18z. It’s a horror show!
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