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  2. Ian Browns hacked feb’s account ECM is quality. Theme of all 3 is good. Forecasting nightmare which is when surprises happen.
  3. We all laugh about the boom charts at D10 but seriously there are a vastly bigger percentage of such boom charts put out by all models than there are boom realities. So while we talk of certain bias that is built into individual models, we should really take into account a significant bias on the part of all models to bring cold snowy weather to us. Not sure I can remember ever seeing a cold spell that was never hinted at 10 days out in the models. But I've seen loads of winter nirvanas modelled 10 days out that never bore fruit.
  4. A cold and sunny day max 1 deg min -2 deg snowcover above 200m
  5. It is lovely and sunny now but the sky has a reddish tinge to it, which could mean stormy weather is coming soon.
  6. I think there will lots of similar incidents like this next week. Some places will get rain, where as 5 miles up the road it it will be snow. Plenty of forecasting headaches next week, it might just come down to looking out the window.
  7. Apologies I may be to blame for a part of that, just couldn’t help myself, whilst I know it’s about looking for colder weather the banter just got a bit out of control in there last night unfortunately not much going on around these parts for the foreseeable future, hope that changes as we head into February. Edit: I also fully understand some people are not interested in colder weather which is also fine as colder weather can have a big impact on some peoples lives, just hope we can see some interesting weather turn up soon!
  8. Dry, cloudy and calm after a dusting of snow overnight Temp 0.3c
  9. CatchMyDrift

    Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

    Cold with snow potential.
  10. Yes, GFS looks like a decent upgrade in the mid term concerning snow chances, but sounds like its least favourable? However all should change in the next run
  11. That's the concern for sure.
  12. Yes, that is a great mean, let's just hope that actual result is snow rather than rain. It will be interesting weather watching from Saturday night.
  13. Only problem is, they don’t go much lower than -6 at any point. Will be the wrong side of marginal for a lot of us
  14. So this morning the GEM and ECM move, at D10 move towards the GFS Pacific profile of any wave being interfered with by troughing so no real progress as to a Pacific Ridge, in fact, now like the GFS a big step towards a Pacific trough. So at D10 the three models: Upstream a much flatter pattern, this means that we will have a faster influx of HP cells flowing west-east. The net effect will be a gradual easing of the trough east and/or warming out, fewer chances for ridges to develop to higher latitude and the possibility of the jet to split near the UK sending some of the energy east rather than SE. We see the three models in the UK region having variations of this outcome, the GEM more zonal, the GFS split energy, more cold-zonal, and the ECM in its early stages of handling this upstream pattern change, so still trying to be more progressive with heights ridging north. Unfortunately, at D10, we know the ECM bias, so we can have low expectancies of that being repeated at 12z, the mean D8-D10 highlights this. It does appear that the failure of the models with their MJO signal means we will get no help from there, the opposite in fact, and with downwelling really not showing its hand even at D16 on the GEFS, little productive help there. The D9-D16 development of the Pacific lobe: Mean D9-D16>>> Mean D0-D9>>> We can see the wedge move from the Pacific to Siberia draining the Canadian lobe towards the Asian/Pacific side. The routes for the Canadian lobe are split so less energy filling the euro trough, compared to the above D0-D9 where the Arctic High and wedge forced the NW-SE flow over the UK. No way to sugar coat this, a bad trend. Hopefully, by then the downwelling would have reset the pattern and this scenario will not bear fruit. Still on the colder side of the climate, so the further north and higher ground could still be interesting...
  15. Sceptical

    Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

    A continuation of the generally cold and dry theme or something different?
  16. If GFS is least faverable out of the big 3 then we are in a good position!
  17. The ECM more or less follows the mean up to day 7 and the envelope is pretty tight. Thereafter, there is some divergence as expected, although that is well outside any semi reliable time frame. It's worth remembering how useless the ensembles have been so far this winter, so probably wise not to go looking for any trends beyond 120hrs as they are likely meaningless.
  18. It was snow here almost an hour ago, didn't last long but was pretty and has left a dusting on some surfaces over the top of a lovely frost which has oddly enough started melting with it still being below freezing. Temp -0.5c and dew point -1c, any explanations as to why its turning to rain further south?
  19. its icy under foot for sure, although unless i've suddenly grown to tolerate cold, it didn't feel that cold to me. However gutted that my snow was just icy rain.
  20. It will and all depends on several factors on the day especially by the coast. I live on the Wirral Merseyside generally a poor place for snow, however Tuesday delivered snowfall right on the coast and laying snow just 2 minutes drive from here. I might add next week looks better than Tuesday just gone with snow chances for most of the country.
  21. it looks to me as though that band of snow on the radar is breaking up/weakening as it gets towards kent, apart from that we had a hard frost here in ramsgate last night and some lovely winter sunshine now
  22. It's only just about an outlier by D10 of course, and we all know how likely that's going to be on the money whether it be showing mild or cold. The mean looks good throughout at around -5c from D4.
  23. FlightlessWings

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    Absolutely stunning walk to work through Dorking this morning, although only just thawed out...
  24. Yep lovely improvement this morning . ECM looking tasty . @bluearmy the day 9 chart on the ecm , is there lots of snow ??
  25. As mentioned last evening, more traction from the east European ridge, energy diversion mid Atlantic and trough slipping south equates to temps below average and a tricky surface analysis
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