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  2. The azores high is moving East though, confirmed by the ensembles by about 240, its as flat as a pancake with Westerly winds, I would put my life on a spell of zonality now, and don't see how anyone could possibly deny it.
  3. Thank you very much for your answer.
  4. There is no signal for a Euro high. If you take both UKMO and GFS at 144, both illustrate this point.
  5. Okay. So the H-W plot shows a brief phase 8 followed by a strong multi-day spike in phase 1, but what we're seeing is more akin to if phase 8 is the stronger forcing, which suggests the H-W plot is being interfered with by non-MJO activity further east. GEFS then keep the MJO in phase 1 on the H-W plot so perhaps still more like 8 in actuality, before eventual decay. Perhaps this is why GEFS/GFS look a bit magnetised toward the positively tilted mid-Atlantic trough scenario in the 8-14 day range. ECMF and UKME both take the MJO readily on through phase 2-3. With that comes alternative options, mainly a trough stalling to our NW in the 7-12 day range and then sliding SE in the 10-16 day range (an overlap here due to uncertainty of propagation times for tropical signals). Not my usual style of posting today as I'm in a hurry. Curious times are upon us it seems.
  6. A lot of cloud at times this week, but with high pressure in charge, it stays mainly dry. The southeast corner, in particular will have a frost risk, and that'll spread as skies clear in other places at times during the week. Watch the video here
  7. Here is a paper with more on the CET series http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ParkerHorton_CET_IJOC_2005.pdf
  8. Almost always wrong side of marginal these days.
  9. All chocolate bars seem to have shrunk, yet they cost more and what's with all the palm fat?

    1. Show previous comments  1 more
    2. Snowflake Queen

      Snowflake Queen

      Melt it and use it as body butter 

    3. Cloudy daze
    4. lassie23

      lassie23

      smearing snickers is a bit messy:oops:

  10. Really? UKMO looks cold out to 144 to my eyes.. More to the point i think 99% of your posts belong in the moan thread. Strat warming quite intense byvearly Feb on 12z, hopefully it will gather momentum.
  11. We can only hope that the models are ignorant, when it comes to putative SSWs.
  12. Not looking past 168 from now on, just to much chop and change. Both UK Met and GFS interesting prior to this cut off point, get a feeling something is in the mix and it isn't resolved yet. This coming weekend seems to be trending colder each run.
  13. Cheers for the link @Dorsetbred I've bookmarked it as I'm sure those posts won't be there later lol
  14. I believe it is a mean of the whole triangular area, with some adjustment for urban warming. That is what I have gleaned from online sources anyway.
  15. Karlos Here's a map. http://www.stormtrack.co.uk/Pages/CET.aspx
  16. Is the centre of it used for temperature purposes though?
  17. We look to be joining in with the "continental" type climate under high pressure towards the end of the week. With some cold nights and low dew points. How the incoming Atlantic Lows will eventually interact within the developing pattern is still up in the air, and there is still a slim chance we could see a more southerly track, or maybe a wedge of high pressure disrupting any major Atlantic onslaught. Though the form horse is for the Atlantic lows to break through and we will up on the warmer side, i wouldn't say it's totally nailed. And with some cold continental air (even though the 850s are not that cold) any approaching fronts, as long as they have a south easterly element in the flow, could bring some transient snowfall at least. GFS for FRI/SAT/SUN morning min temps, looking cold, especially for England and Wales.
  18. According to the Hadley centre, representative of a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Lancashire, London and Bristol.
  19. Otherwise the next week or so is looking pretty tedious
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