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Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 3 Issued 5th June 16

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J10

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This update concentrates on the NOAA pressure charts and the ensemble charts for the Somerset area.

This will enable us to see what the current projections are to the run up to the festival.

NOAA Updates

Looking firstly at the 6-10 day outlook we can see the High Pressure scenario initially favoured being slowly edged away to the North and East, however without the Low Pressure starting to dominate as the longer term (8-14 day) outlooks would have suggested.

01 June - 6 to 10 days.gif02 June - 6 to 10 days.gif03 June - 6 to 10 days.gif04 June - 6 to 10 days.gif

Next onto the 8-14 outlooks, this continues the theme of turning unsettled from the South West, and by the 2nd June run (covering 10-16th June) has low pressure over the UK.

However the latest run (4th June covering – 12th to 18th June) although still having low pressure around the UK, moves the centre of the low pressure away to the North West. With more a NW flow over the UK rather than a SW flow. So a trend to a slight improvement and possibly reverting back to something a little more settled before Glastonbury starts.

1 June - 8 to 14 days.gif2 June - 8 to 14 days.gif3 June - 8 to 14 days.gif4 June - 8 to 14 days.gif

Ensemble Runs

Pressure

The ensembles tend to suggest pressure dropping over the next week to average 1005mb, but then tending to rise close to 1015mb by around the 21st June.

Somerset Pressure 1 June.PNGSomerset Pressure 2 June.pngSomerset Pressure 3 June.pngSomerset Pressure 4 June.pngSomerset Pressure 5 June 06Hz.png

 

Precipitation

All runs show some precipitation for Somerset for much of the 2 weeks running up to the festival, some runs show some heavy rain at times, but most go for moderate rain at worst.

Somerset Rain 1 June.PNGSomerset Rain 2 June.pngSomerset Rain 3 June.pngSomerset Rain 4 June.pngSomerset Rain 5 June 06Hz.png

Temperatures

Currently the 850Hpa temps are around +10c, which are giving temps above 20c, over the next week or so these are set to fall back to +5c at 850Hpa, with maybe a slight increase before the festival.

Somerset Temps 3 June.pngSomerset Temps 4 June.pngSomerset Temps 5 June 06Hz.png

Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england

Looking rather unsettled for the mid part of June, but with some drier sunnier periods between the spells of rain.

Into late June and early July, Turning generally drier, warmer and sunnier to the south and east, although still with a risk of some rain or showers at times. Temperatures improving over the period,so mild to warm.

Summary

If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period.

My guess at this stage would be for a getting better sort of festival, with a better weekend than the runup. But if last year is anything to go by, things will frequently change before then.

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