Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

JACKONE's Blog

  • entries
    36
  • comments
    2
  • views
    7,052

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 25 March 2016

Sign in to follow this  
J10

211 views

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
Snow conditions remain generally good or very good across the Alps. Snow over Austria in recent days has improved the conditions here. Elsewhere there has been a lack of snow generally for the past week and on piste the conditions remain very good. However off piste conditions are worsening and some fresh powder is desired.
With temperatures dropping over recent days, spring snow has also been less of a problem.

Alps 25 Mar.JPG

Charts - Saturday to Monday
For the weekend, low pressure moving the over the UK and into North Western Europe will try to edge South Westerly winds and unsettled weather over the Alps. For Saturday, it should remain mostly settled over the Alps as High Pressure hangs on. For Sunday and into next week, the fronts start to edge in over the Alps form the North West, bringing some moderate precipitation along with fluctuating temperatures.   

Alps 25 Mar + 1 Day.JPGAlps 25 Mar + 2 Days.JPGAlps 25 Mar + 3 Days.JPG

Charts – Tuesday and Wednesday
By midweek, the flow turns more to a westerly with further mostly showery precipitation with 850Hpa temps generally above freezing, the precipitation concentrated in Northern and Western areas.

Alps 25 Mar + 4 Days.JPGAlps 25 Mar + 5 Days.JPG

Charts – Thursday and Friday
Towards the weekend low pressure to the south may introduce southerly winds with the risk of some very mild air, but this is a long way away at present.

Alps 25 Mar + 6 Days.JPGAlps 25 Mar + 7 Days.JPG

Alps Detail
Saturday – Winds from the South to South West, Turning milder from the West
850Hpa temps +2c to +8c and FL 1800m to 2400m (France, Switzerland, Northern Italy, Liechtenstein, SW Germany, Western Austria)
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (SE Germany, Northern and Eastern Austria)

Sunday - Winds generally from the South to South West, Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m  (W France Alps, N and W Switzerland, Liechtenstein, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +1c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Austria, S and E Switzerland, Northern Italy, E France Alps)

Monday - Winds generally from the West to South West
850Hpa temps +3c to +7c and FL 1900m to 2200m (generally)
850Hpa temps +1c to +3c and FL 1700m to 1900m (Far SE areas - SE Austria, NE Italy, and Far NW areas, NW Switzerland, Far SW Germany)

Alps 25 Mar Europe +1.JPGAlps 25 Mar Europe +2.JPGAlps 25 Mar Europe +3.JPG

Tuesday - Winds generally from the West, Low Pressure over the South of the Alps and milder here
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, N and E Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S and W Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, France Alps)

Wednesday – Winds generally from the West to South West, as Low peruse moves east over north pars of the Alps.
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (N and W Switzerland, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2200m to 2600m (French Alps, rest of Switzerland,. SE Germany, Northern Italy and FL 2600m to 3000m ( Far east Austria)

Alps 25 Mar Europe +4.JPGAlps 25 Mar Europe +5.JPG

Thursday – Low Pressure over the Alps, much milder from the South
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2400m to 2800m (generally)

Friday – Huge uncertainty with GFS model runs varying 850HPa temps by as much as 15c for some parts of Austria, however more consistently showing looking milder weather to the south.

Alps 25 Mar Europe +6.JPGAlps 25 Mar Europe +7.JPGAlps 25 Mar Europe +7a.JPG

Precipitation – A succession of fronts are set to move in this week from the west, most are cold fronts, with snow to quite low levels at times, especially to start the week.

Weekend - Precipitation for Austria is expected to continue through Saturday morning, before decaying slowly during the afternoon, snow initially above 1000m, perhaps 1200m later.

Alps Precip 26 March 12 noon.png

A cold front from the North West slowly edging east during Sunday, reaching central areas overnight before decaying in Austria Monday, Snow generally 1200-1400m on the front, but higher on the front edge of the front and over Italy, 1600-1800m here.

Alps Precip 27 March 12 noon.pngAlps Precip 27 March midnight.png

Monday - Early Next Week
Later on Monday, the next front edges in from the west for Western parts of the Alps, with snow restricted above 1600m-1800m for daytime and evening.

However as colder air pushes in from the west, snow levels falling back to around 1200-1400m overnight and into the morning, with a few more hours of precipitation for western areas, before it moves to Austria by early morning.

Alps Precip 28 March 12 noon.pngAlps Precip 29 March 6am.png

Showers for Tuesday afternoon over Southern parts of the Alps with snow levels back up to close to 1800-2000m.Further showers seem likely on Wednesday, with snow above 2000m, there is a chance of frontal precipitation from the NW later with snow to 1400-1600m, but uncertainty as to its location.

Alps Precip 30 March 3pm.pngAlps Precip 31 March 6pm.png

In terms of snow amounts, 25-50cm of snow are possible in places, above 1750-2000m, below 1500m though and the snow/rain mix is always likely to change.

Outlook -

So in summary a messy week, conditions look pretty good for Easter Weekend, with generally good snow conditions. For the first part of next week, a succession of fronts from the west will bring precipitation with snow likely above 1750-2000m and to lower levels at times.
Towards the weekend, perhaps turning very much milder from the south, but a lot of uncertainty.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...