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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 January 2016

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J10

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Current Synoptics and Conditions
Some very mild weather over the Alps over recent days with South Westerly winds. However due to the previous heavy snow, still some very good conditions, although lower slopes were starting to suffer with thinning snow depths.56aba2847e218_Alps29Jan.thumb.JPG.dd24b2

Synoptics Ongoing

Weekend
Mild South Westerly winds continuing to bring mild and settled weather over the Alps for Saturday morning and early afternoon. However a cold front is set to edge in from the north West later Saturday and into Sunday.  This will bring colder weather from the North West and heavy precipitation over much of the Alps for Sunday, more details on the expected snow level in the detailed section below. However turning a bit milder from the South West later in the day.

Alps 29 Jan + 1 Day.JPGAlps 29 Jan + 2 Days.JPG

Monday and Tuesday
Very mild South Westerly winds and High Pressure edging into the Alps for Monday and Tuesday, and any precipitation in the east quickly edging away, Freezing levels may reach 4000m for South Western parts of the Alps, but turning a little cooler from the North West later on Tuesday.

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End of Week
Continuing to turn much colder over the Alps with a Polar Maritime airmass affecting all areas by Thursday, and with fronts edging in bringing a snow risk across the Alps.
There are also signs of a further North Westerly outbreaks over the Alps into the weekend.

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Alps Temperatures

Saturday - Sunday
Mild to start, turning colder from the North West late Saturday into Sunday, before turning mild again from the South West later Sunday.

Saturday
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2200m (Generally)

Sunday
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 900m to 1800m (Austria, colder in the east)
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2600m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW)

56aba353ad357_Alps29JanEurope1.thumb.JPG56aba35c12db9_Alps29JanEurope2.thumb.JPG

Monday – Tuesday
Turning much milder for Monday and to start Tuesday, turning a bit colder from the NW later into Tuesday evening.
Monday 850Hpa temps +4c to +11c and FL 3000m to 4000m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW)
Tuesday 850Hpa temps +4c to +7c generally and FL 3000m to 3200m

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Wednesday - Friday
Colder again from the North West, but slightly milder again from the west on Friday
Wednesday 850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1200m to 2200m (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Thursday 850Hpa temps -4c to -7c and FL 600m to 1000m, perhaps locally 1200m in the south  (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Friday 850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (France, Switzerland and Germany) 850Hpa temps -2c to -7c and FL 600m to 1400m (Austria, coldest further east)

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Total Precipitation

 

There appear to be two main areas of precipitation this week.
A cold front is set to edge in from the North West later on Saturday across much of the Alps, and is set to remain over the much of the Alps on Sunday, before clearing Austria to the East early Monday. 
Snow levels to start around 1200m to 1500m Saturday midnight, dropping to 1000m to 1200m by 6am Sunday, however increasingly steadily to around 2000m by midday Sunday for France, Switzerland  and other Western areas, and this spreading into Austria later.

Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 0cm (rain event) 1500m 20cm (rain later) 2000m 50cm (perhaps rain later in west) 2500m 50cm-75cm

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Then drier until midweek before another front edges down from  the North West around Wednesday, looking light to start but intensifying as it edges south. With the snow level  1400m on its leading edge, 1000m behind the front.  This is forecast to drop steadily through the event to 800m by midnight and to 600-800m during Thursday so a much better event for lower slopes and resorts than the one over the weekend.

Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 15cm (rain to start) 1500m 20cm (snow preceded by rain) 2000m 30cm 2500m 40cm

56abbaabe1f41_AlpsPrecip3Feb-noon.thumb.56abbaa667f14_AlpsPrecip3Feb-6pm.thumb.p56abbaa90ff96_AlpsPrecip3Feb-midnight.thAlps Precip 4 Feb - 6am.png56abbab12ea09_AlpsPrecip4Feb-12am.thumb.

Summary
A complete mixed bag this week, Some snow at times for all, but also some rain for most late Sunday, Very mild indeed Monday and Tuesday.
Then colder from the North West with the forecast of snow for many, and looking cool, with the chance of further NW outbreaks into next weekend and quite possibly beyond.

 

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