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El Nino vs UK winter

Snowmad79

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[code=auto:0] Weak El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +0.5 to +0.9) Dates Winter Class Info 1951 – 1952 Mild & snowless According to reports this winter was generally mild but snowy in March 1952 when easterly winds and blizzards caused havoc for the South East. 1952 – 1953 Mild & snowless Despite a cold end to Autumn with 20-25cm of snow across a belt from Wales to East Anglia the winter turned out to be rather snowless with more in the way of Atlantic storms including a north sea storm surge during January 1953. 1953 – 1954 Very cold & snowless Whilst this winter was very cold with bitingly cold winds the end of Jan into Feb saw heavy snow fall in the south with Kent reportedly seeing 2 metre drifting. 1958 – 1959 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than it being proceeded by Stormy atlantic weather with flooding in places and followed by a fine warm spring. 1968 – 1969 Cold & Snowy Notably one the few White Christmas in the UK with overnight heavy snow giving wales and the cotswolds a foot of snow. Generally cold through winter with severe blizzards across the norther isles courtesy of a polar low slipping SE across the country effecting the Midlands, east Anglia and parts of the south. 1969 – 1970 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than Autumn finishing with one of the 5 driest Octobers and 3rd equal warmest. 1976 – 1977 Mild & Wet Notable very wet autumn in 1976 followed by one of the wettest Februarys across England and wales. Wet snow was actually reported at times during this winter. 1977 – 1978 Cold & Snowy Winter started off with a generally wet December being reported. By mid January things had turned colder with heavy snow and blizzards reported around the UK and again in February. 6 ft drifts reported in a number of regions. 1979 – 1980 Mild & Wet Classed mild and wet due to lack of reports. One being that this winter had a record of 5 episodes of severe gales/ storms. Snowfall was recorded on two dates, with one in february and one in march 1980. 1994 – 1995 Cold & Snowy Conflicting reports on this one. Two sources state overall snowless and wet where as netweather historical reports frequent bouts of heavy snow at times in January, february and march 1995. The early to mid naughties were indeed cold and snowy in my part of the NW of the UK with deep drifting. 2004 – 2005 Mild & snowless This was overall a mild and wet winter due to the dominace of westerlies. With that said, these westerlies did bring some snow showers to Scotland and NW England on occasion. February was fairly mild on the whole with anticyclonic nw'erlies. 2006 – 2007 Mild & snowless Exceptionaly wet on the whole for most of the UK with Snow showers mostly confined to Scotland. England did see some snow at the end of winter into spring 2007. Moderate El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.0 to +1.4) Dates Winter Class Info 1963 – 1964 Cold & Dry Exceptionally dry winter for the most part with only one incident of snow showers reported. 1986 – 1987 Cold & Snowy This winter saw record breaking low max temps in Jan 87 and heavy snow, mostly for the South through SW. Snow continued for SW into March 87. 1987 – 1988 Mild & Wet Winter 87/88 followed the well know known “Great October Storm” when the SE experienced damaging winds of over 100 mph which caused local devistation and a number of death. Winter 87/88 continued in much the same vain with wet and windy weather. Jan 88 was the wettest January for 40 years. 1991 – 1992 Cold & Dry Winter 91/92 turned out to be the driest winter for 28yrs with any snow mostly confined to the Scottish highlands. 2002 – 2003 Mild & snowless Reports on this winter state that Aboyne Aberdeenshire recorded temps of 18.3c on the 26th Jan 2003. In England 17.4c and 16.3c was recorded in Kent and Gravesend respecively. Though the occasional easterly winds did bring some biting wind chills. 2009 – 2010 Very cold & snowy After an unsettled and reasonably mild first half of December this winter turned out to be the coldest since 78/79 broadly speaking. Prolonged periods of harsh frosts and frequent snowfall recorded right across the country. -22.3c was the lowest recorded for Sunderland. I'm sure most people remember the frequent below freezing Ice days and travel disruption caused in winter 2009/10. A classic winter for very cold and snowy conditions. Strong El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.5 plus) Dates Winter Class Info 1957 – 1958 Snowy Surprisingly this winter started off on the mild side with temps of 18.3 c recorded at Aber N. Wales before Cold air swept south across the UK from thr 19th with heavy snow across large parts of the UK. Shoeburyness recorded level lying snow depths of 25 inches. 1965 – 1966 Snowy The second half of November saw heavy snow for most parts of the UK. Late January saw the Eastern parts effected by snow followed by the NE of the country in Feb. 1972 – 1973 Mild and Wet Most reports do not refer to this winter directly and only generalise that the lead up to and the following spring were dominated by stormy depressions. And that only leads to one thing. 1982 – 1983 Snowy A number of reports don't mention anything notable about this winter. However, that is because this was a northern affair. Very cold and snowy in the north up the pennines to Scotland in November, December and February. 1997 – 1998 Mild & snowless An exceptionally mild winter this one and largely snowless, though snow was reported right across the country on a few occasions. The poor winter was also followed by a “white easter”. No % Total Number of El Nino Winters since 1950: 23 No of Weak El nino winters since 1950: 12 No of Moderate El nino winters since 1950: 6 No of Strong El nino winters since 1950: 5 Total number of El nino winters that were poor for snow: 15 65 Percent of El Ninos were Largely Snowless Total number of El nino winters that were good for snow 8 35 Percent of El Ninos were Snowfests % of Weak El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 9 75 Percent of weak El Nino winters were snowless % of Moderate El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 4 67 Percent of moderate El Nino winters were snowless % of Stong El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 2 40 Percent of strong El nino winters were snowless Summary: 65% of El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK in terms of snow. 35% of El Ninos resulted in good winters for the Uk in terms of snow. During an El Nino winter there is overall a 65% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. 60% of Strong El Ninos resulted in Snowy UK winters. 40% of Strong El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK for snow. During a strong El Nino winter there is a 60% chance of a snowy UK winter and 40% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a Moderate El Nino winter there is a 33% chance of a snowy UK winter and a 67% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a weak El Nino winter there is a 25% chance of a snowy UK winter and 75% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. [/code]
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