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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 10

J10

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This is the 10th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

[b]Run up to festival[/b]
[attachment=253459:ECM 20th June 00Hz.png]

[attachment=253510:GFS 19th June 00Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253509:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 48.JPG] [attachment=253508:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 48.JPG]
Monday remains rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but circa 5-10mm is expected.
Tuesday looks drier as pressure builds from the west.

[b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]

[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]

[attachment=253490:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253491:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253507:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 96.JPG]

[attachment=253458:ECM 20th June 00Hz +96.png] [attachment=253540:ECM 20th June 12Hz +96.png][attachment=253453:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 96.png]
Low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak areas/ridge of High Pressure builds over the UK, giving benign settled conditions with a little sunshine at times, Mostly dry temps low 20s.

[b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
[attachment=253493:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253492:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253506:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253539:ECM 20th June 12Hz +120.png]
Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.

[b][attachment=253452:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253456:ECM 20th June 00Hz +144.png][/b]

[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads for the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK. Temps high teens perhaps touching 20 later in the day, Sunshine amounts currently looks very limited.

There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.

[attachment=253494:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253496:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253505:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 144.JPG]
[attachment=253451:UKMO 20th June 00Hz + 144.png] [attachment=253456:ECM 20th June 00Hz +144.png][attachment=253536:ECM 20th June 12Hz +144.png]

[size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size]
A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with the risk of a few showers, some of these could be heavy but it could remain dry. Temps again Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.

[attachment=253498:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253497:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253504:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 168.JPG]
[attachment=253455:ECM 20th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253538:ECM 20th June 12Hz +168.png]

[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with low pressure deepening with the risk of some rain/showers at times. Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain

[attachment=253500:GFS 20th June 06Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253499:GFS 20th June 00Hz + 192.JPG] [attachment=253503:GFS 20th June 12Hz + 192.JPG]
[attachment=253454:ECM 20th June 00Hz +192.png] [attachment=253537:ECM 20th June 12Hz +192.png]

[b]Ground Conditions [/b]
The rain on Monday which could be around 10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.

At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the showery potential for the weekend.

[b]Ensembles [/b]
[b][size=3]Pressure[/size][/b]
Pretty steady to around 1020mb to around Friday but then dropping back a little over the weekend.
[attachment=253519:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 00Hz.png]][attachment=253515:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253512:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 12Hz.png]

[size=3][b]Temperature[/b][/size]
Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend.
[attachment=253517:Ensemble Temp 20 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253516:Ensemble Temp 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253511:Ensemble Temp 20 June 12Hz.png]

[size=3][b]Rainfall [/b][/size]
After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some rain on Friday and over the weekend. Generally drier than recently suggested.

[attachment=253518:Ensemble Rain 20 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253514:Ensemble Rain 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253513:Ensemble Rain 20 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Summary [/b]
The models have really been playing with us lately, initial suggestions of a dry festival replaced by something far more unsettled. Yesterday saw the first step back and today continues this trend.

I think I will scrap the dust bowl - mudbath meter, due to its wild swings and the far of jinxing the recent improvement in the weather prospect for Glastonbury.

(It would have been the just the right side of 5.0)

[b]Note [/b]

Tomorrows blog will be published much earlier, due to other commitments.

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