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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 9

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This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.

The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

So a definite trend towards a wet festival. Is today the day to stall or reverse this trend.

[b]1. Operational Runs from GFS[/b] (06Hz and 12Hz) [b], ECM [/b][b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][b] and UKMO [b](00Hz and 12Hz)[/b][/b]

[b][size=3][b]Monday 22nd June [/b][/size][/b]
[attachment=253397:GFS 17th June 06Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253404:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253410:ECM 19th June 00Hz +72.png] [attachment=253425:ECM 19th June 12Hz +72.png] [attachment=253406:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 72.gif] [attachment=253427:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 72.gif]

The General theme remains the same. Low Pressure to the North East, with a wave moving east across southern areas of the UK probably during the morning, this is likely to give some rainfall for Glastonbury, although the 12Hz run pushes this a little further south.

A ridge of High Pressure builds over Tuesday, keeping things dry and helping to dry the ground after Mondays rain.
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
[attachment=253398:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253403:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253405:UKMO 19 June 00Hz + 120.gif] [attachment=253409:ECM 19th June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253424:ECM 19th June 12Hz +120.png] [attachment=253426:UKMO 19 June 12Hz + 120.gif]

Today there is better agreement of a ridge of High Pressure over Southern areas, with the rain reserved for Northern parts of the UK, so looking dry for Glastonbury. Max Temps low 20s.

The fronts to the west continue to edge closer to the UK on Thursday, but the ridge holding for the moment, keeping things mostly dry, temps again low 20s.
[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
[attachment=253399:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253402:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253408:ECM 19th June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253423:ECM 19th June 12Hz +168.png]

Friday continues to look the problematic day, there is currently decent agreement between the models that some rainfall is likely to move east during the day, most likely in the morning. The operational GFS runs show the heaviest of the rainfall further north, with moderate rain for Glastonbury in the morning, with showers for the afternoon. Pinning the details on this has a major impact on conditions for the weekend. Temps high teens / low 20s.

Operational runs today have reduced the rainfall projection for next Friday compared to yesterdays runs.

Saturday looks mostly dry at this stage, with some sort of ridge of high pressure. Temps mid to high teens.

[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
[attachment=253400:GFS 19th June 06Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253401:GFS 19th June 12Hz + 216.JPG] [attachment=253407:ECM 19th June 00Hz +216.png] [attachment=253422:ECM 19th June 12Hz +216.png]
A lot of uncertainty for Sunday at the moment, with it looking rather unsettled, ECM has it quite wet and GFS perhaps a little drier.

[b]2. Ensembles [/b]

[attachment=253414:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253412:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253415:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png]
These show average pressure of 1020mb dropping back on Monday as Forecast, and then rising back up to 1020mb, so better confidence of a more settled Wednesday and better runs than yesterday suggested. Pressure then dropping back a little on Friday to just above 1010mb, before perhaps recovering a bit of the weekend. It is noticeable that the operational runs for both 06Hz and 12Hz are towards the more settled of the runs.

[size=3][b]Rainfall [/b][/size]
[attachment=253416:Ensemble Rain 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253411:Ensemble Rain 19 June 06Hz.png][attachment=253417:Ensemble Rain 19 June 12Hz.png]

These continue to show a number of ensembles going for periods of rain during the festival, although Monday does look a little drier. Again the operational GFS runs (06Hz and 12Hz) are drier then the ensembles runs.

[b][size=3]Temps [/size][/b]
[attachment=253418:Ensemble Temp 19 June 00Hz.png][attachment=253413:Ensemble Temp 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=253419:Ensemble Temp 19 June 12Hz.png]

These show cool weather on Monday, and then temps steadily rising until Friday, reaching +8c to +10c (850Hpa) by Friday, and then staying similar over the weekend, so looking warmer than was the case yesterday.

[b]Rainfall (GFS Operational)[/b]

Rain expected Monday, and then some on Friday, but amounts not as great as suggested yesterday.

[b][attachment=253440:Rhgfs8414.gif] [attachment=253439:Rhgfs14414.gif] [attachment=253438:Rhgfs18614.gif] [attachment=253437:Rhgfs22514.gif][/b]

[b]Summary [/b]
A mass of conflicting data tonight, however lets start with the good news, the operational GFS runs are much better than yesterday, in terms of being drier. It is looking more settled generally than was the case yesterday for Wednesday, which is now looking mostly dry. Also it looking a bit warmer for the festival, with temps in the drier weather reaching the 20s at time. There is now a glimmer of hope for the festival being decent, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

However there are still concerns, the ensembles remain troubling in terms of pressure and more especially rainfall with a number still having enough rainfall to cause mud problems. The operational run forecast some rain on Friday, but will this be enough to cause problems.

Saturday looks not bad generally and Sunday looks rather unsettled once again.

If it was based on operational GFS. the rating would be 5, the ensembles a 6 and ECM 6.5.

So on this basis my rating today is 6.0, an improvement on yesterday.
[attachment=253428:glaston 19th June.JPG]

Pack those wellies, they may well be needed during Friday and maybe at times during the weekend.

But to end on a more positive note, pack your sun scream as well. :D
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