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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 4

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J10

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Which weather term best sums up Glastonbury 2015  

8 members have voted

  1. 1. Which weather term best sums up Glastonbury 2015

    • Heatwave
      3
    • Washout
      0
    • Dustbowl
      2
    • A mixed Bag
      3

The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,

This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.

[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]

[b]6-10 day [/b]
[attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping conditions rather settled as time goes on, this improves the chances of dry weather in the run up towards Glastonbury festival.

[b]8-14 day[/b]
[attachment=252592:814day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252605:814day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252593:814day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252594:814day.03 from 10 June.gif]

This again keep pressure higher than average just before the Glastonbury festival but perhaps but not quite as much the 6-10 day chart.

All in all these charts are rather positive for dry weather. For sunnier weather you would would to see the High positioned more to the east.

[b]2. GFS Ensemble Charts [/b]

From 7 June

[attachment=252601:Ensemble Pressure 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252602:Ensemble Rain 7 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252603:Ensemble Temp 7 JUne 12Hz.png]

These charts are rather messy, pressure averaging 1020mb before Glastonbury with a high degree of variation but dropping a little in the run up to Glastonbury. Rainfall variable with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

From 9 June

[attachment=252598:Ensemble Pressure 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252599:Ensemble Rain 9 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252600:Ensemble Temp 9 June 12Hz.png]

Pressure around 1020mb-1030mb to the 21st June before dropping back to around 1015mb on average by the end of run, rainfall looking low in the run up to Glastonbury, but turning a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury with a few ensembles spikes of high rainfall with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

From 10 June

[attachment=252595:Ensemble Pressure 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252596:Ensemble Rain 10 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=252597:Ensemble Temp 10 June 12Hz.png]

Pressure around 1020mb-1025mb from the 15th June to the 25th and only then dropping slightly below 1020mb, very little variation in the ensembles members either. Rainfall looking very low in the run up to Glastonbury, but a few runs a little wetter a few days before Glastonbury but drier generally than the 9th June with average 850HPa temps in the range 7-10c.

[b]Summary [/b]

The NOAA charts are very promising in the run up to Glastonbury for settled weather. The Ensembles go for a settled period the week before Glastonbury, but will it last for the festival, the 7th/9th June runs suggest no, but today's suggest they might.

A long way off still, but the more patterns are starting to emerge time will tell if they are the right ones. However not the worst charts ever seen in the run up to Glastonbury.
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Cheers Jack, I'll be keeping an eye on the GFS runs now they are in range, it certainly looks fairly settled next week after this week-ends potential thunderstorms 

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