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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 3

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J10

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This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.

This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.

This weeks forecast methods

1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com] - This is the last forecast to use this model
4. Prognostic Charts at 500mb from NOAA

[b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

[b]June[/b]

[attachment=252232:June 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252233:June 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252234:June 15 Temps 7 June.png]

The Pressure charts show Higher pressure areas both to the west and east of the UK, with pressure only slightly higher than average over the UK itself. Temperatures are now generally around average, and slightly above average in Northern parts of the UK with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.

In Summary pretty neutral to say the least.

[b][b]July [/b][/b]
[attachment=252229:July 15 Pressure 7 June.png] [attachment=252230:July 15 Rainfall 7 June.png] [attachment=252231:July 15 Temps 7 June.png]
The pressure charts show Higher pressure areas to the North west of the UK and also slightly above average over the UK itself.

Temps above average generally, slightly in Southern and Eastern areas, well above average for Northern areas. Rainfall below average generally, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall around average rainfall.

[b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 31/05/2015 HP over UK first moving North, and then rebuilding over all parts Turning Unsettled from west with LP on top of UK for Glasto weekend 01/06/2015 HP over the UK, LP trying to edge from SE at times HP in Control over the UK esp. West parts 02/06/2015 Westerly winds with quite low pressure. HP to Azores Weak LP for festival period 03/06/2015 LP over UK to start pressure building slowly LP pressure for a time Thursday, then Pressure building over weekend 04/06/2015 HP builds up from SW HP to SW flattened out over time 05/06/2015 Unsettled to start, HP slowly building from South LP moves from west to east, HP building for late weekend 06/06/2015 HP over W to start builds initially before LP edges in from south Deep LP to start, slowly weakens over weekend [/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 31/05/2015 Cool and unsettled SE to NW Yellow / Light Orange Showery to start, perhaps more general rain Saturday 5.0 01/06/2015 Dry warmish and settled NE to N Light Orange / Orange Mostly Dry , perhaps odd showers Wednesday 9.0 02/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Wet W to NW Dark Green light yellow Damp/wet most days 4.0 03/06/2015 Dry warm and settled East Orange / Deep Orange Mostly dry , poss. shower Friday 8.0 04/06/2015 Cool Unsettled and Damp NW to W Light Orange / Orange Showery Precipitation at times 6.0 05/06/2015 Mild, wet and unsettled SW to NW Yellow / Orange Periods of rain most days, some heavy 4.0 06/06/2015 Cool to Warm, Damp and Unsettled W to SW Yellow to Deep Orange Periods of rain most day, some moderate 5.0 [/code]
The runs this week are not as promising as last week with the average down from 7.4 to 5.9 out of 10.

[b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 30 May Yellow -1/-0 +0/+1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -1/+1 (Gen) -2(N)/+1(S) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c (S) /+2c(NW) Light Blue/White Generally 31 May Yellow +3/+4 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Light Blue JULY +2(S)/-2(N) +1(S)/-2(N) -1c(NW)/+1c(E) +0c(SE) /+2c(NW) Blue Gen, white Midlands 1 June Yellow +1 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +2c/+3c Blue JULY +4(N)/+1(S) -0(SE)/+2(NW) -0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +1c(S) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 2 June Yellow -3 -1/-0 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -4(SW)/-2(SE) -1/-0 -1c(S)/+0c(N) -0c(Mid)/+4c(NW) White S areas, Red Midlands 3 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 4 June Yellow -2/-1 -2/-1 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c Light Blue JULY -2(SW)/+0(NE) -1(W/-0(E) -0c(SW)/+0c(NE) -0c(SE) /+4c (N) Blue Gen, Red Midlands 5 June Yellow +2/+3 -1/-0 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Red JULY +2(SW)/+5(NE) -0(SW)/+2(NE) +0c(SW)/+2(NE) +1c(SE) /+4c (N) White/Light blue SW, Red Midlands 6 June Yellow -8/-7 -5/-4 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Deep Red JULY -8(SW)/-2 (N) -4(Cen)/-2(S/N) -2c(S)/+1c(N) -1c(SE) /+4c (N) Deep Red All southern areas[/code]
No runs for June this week, for July the outcomes very varied and similar to last week in terms of averages. .

[b]4. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
link for those interested [url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php[/url]

[b]6-10 days[/b]
Shows high pressure initially for this week, but turning slightly unsettled as we move into the forecast for 12-16 June i.e. into next week
[attachment=252235:610day.03 from 1 June.gif] [attachment=252236:610day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252237:610day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252238:610day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252239:610day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252240:610day.03 from 6 June.gif]

[b]8-14 days[/b]
Shows High pressure briefly but quickly turns things unsettled, however perhaps the pressure becoming neutral, by the end of the forecast period 14-20 June.
[attachment=252241:814day.03 from 1 June.gif][attachment=252242:814day.03 from 2 June.gif] [attachment=252243:814day.03 from 3 June.gif] [attachment=252244:814day.03 from 4 June.gif] [attachment=252245:814day.03 from 5 June.gif] [attachment=252246:814day.03 from 6 June.gif]

In summary of above, turning a little unsettled after this week, however perhaps things settling down once more as we move into the run-up to the festival.

[b]Summary[/b]
The long term models not so good this week, but looking at the medium term models, unsettled next week, and perhaps a slight sign of things improving just before the festival starts.
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