Jump to content

Netweather Community Blog

  • entries
    149
  • comments
    133
  • views
    337,990

Contributors to this blog

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 1

Sign in to follow this  
J10

2,508 views

This is the first blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], welcome to the roller coaster.

At this stage were are still using long term models, so should be taken with a cellar full of salt, Nevertheless here we go.

[b]Sources of Information[/b]
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]

One thing you may be thinking why use July forecasts when the festival is in June, well IMO as the festival is at the end of the month, the forecast for July can add confidence for weather trends at the end of June.

[b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

[b]June[/b]
Higher Pressure to the North of the UK, with closer to average pressure for Southern parts. Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, rainfall around average for most southern areas.

[attachment=250945:June 15 Pressure 24 May.png] [attachment=250943:July 15 Rainfall 24 May.png] [attachment=250947:June 15 Temps 24 May.png]

[b]July [/b]

[b]Pressure slightly above average for all of the UK, Temperatures above average for all parts of the UK, moreso for northern parts, and a hig[/b]her positive anomaly than compared to June, rainfall forecast to be slightly above average especially in the

[attachment=250942:July 15 Pressure 24 May.png] [attachment=250946:June 15 Rainfall 24 May.png] [attachment=250944:July 15 Temps 24 May.png]

[b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read Forecast Pattern 18-23 June Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 18/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to W Yellow - Orange (Sunday) Damp to start, wet Friday, drier weekend 5.5 19/05/2015 LP to North of UK, keeping Azores ridge to SW to W mainly Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to NE Yellow / Light Orange Damp at times, mostly Eastern UK 6.5 20/05/2015 LP over North if UK, slowly edging away with ridge of HP to S Cool, Damp and Unsettled NW to N Dark Green / Yellow Damp, wet at times, mostly Eastern UK 4.5 21/05/2015 LP over UK slowly weakening over time Mild Wet at times SW to W Light Orange Wet to start, drier over weekend 5.0 22/05/2015 HP to start then LP form SW Mild/Warm Wet at times SW to W Light Orange to Light Red Rain/showers most days, drier Sunday 5.0 23/05/2015 Ridge of HP from SW to start edged away by LP to NW Mild Damp and Unsettled SW to W Yellow Wed to light orange Rain Wed-Fri, damp/showery weekend 4.0 [/code]
Just realised that my analysis of the festival period itself was missing, so now shown below.[code=auto:0] Date read Forecast Pattern 24-28 June (Festival period) 18/05/2015 LP over UK to start, edges away to be replaced by flat westerly pattern 19/05/2015 Battle between ridging HP to SW and LP to North East 20/05/2015 LP deepens over UK, and then deepens over SW, before edging away Sunday and centred over S UK 21/05/2015 LP to west of UK with SW winds ahead of it, HP slowly building by weekend 22/05/2015 LP to West slowly weakening with HP building from SW for Sunday 23/05/2015 LP of various strength over UK for festival period [/code]
Not the best charts this week, but these are often rather more unsettled compared to the real outcome.

Sample daily Charts [attachment=250962:daily Precip.png] [attachment=250963:Daily Pressure.png] [attachment=250964:Daily Temps.png]


[b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temps Pressure Temps Run (JUNE) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter] 17 May Yellow +3 +2/+3 0c +1c Blue 0(SE)/+10(NW) +2(SE)/+6(NW) -0c(SE)/+0c(NW) 0c(SE)/+2c(NW) Blue gen White Midlands 18 May Blue +3/+4 +2/+3 -0c +1c Blue/Deep Blue +2(S/N)/+4(Cen) 0(S/N)/+2(Cen) -0c(Gen)/+0(NE) +0c(SE)/+2c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue all Southern UK 19 May Yellow -3/-2 +0/+1 -1c -0c Light Blue/White -3(SW)/+0(NE) +0(SW)/+4(NW) -2c(SW)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+2c(NW) Light Blue Gen, White Midlands/SE 20 May Yellow +12/+13 +5 +4c +3c Deep Blue +10(NW)/+14(SE) +4(SW)/+7(NE) +2c( N)/+4c(SE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Deep Blue Gen, White Midlands 21 May Yellow +7/+8 +5 +1c/2c White/Blue +6(SW)/+10(NE) +4(SW)/+6(NE) +1c(SW)/+2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c NW) Deep Blue Gen, white/Red Midlands 22 May Yellow +3 +0/+1 +1c/2c +0/+1 Light Red/White +2(S)/+8(N) +0(SE)/+4(NW) +0c(SW)+/2c(NE) +0c(SE)/+3c(NE) Blue Deep Gen, white/Red Midlands/SE[/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temps Pressure Temps Run (JULY) z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain z500 PRMSL 850HPa 2m Rain [Blue Drier/Red Wetter] 17 May Yellow +8 +5 +1c +2c Deep Blue +6(SE)/+ 9(NW) +4(SE)/+6(NW) +1c +0c(SE)/+3c(NW) Deep Blue gen White Midlands 18 May Blue -1 -2 0c +1c Red -2(SW)/+ 2(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) +0c(SW)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red Deep Red Midlands 19 May Blue +4/+5 +1/+2 +1c +2c Blue/White +2( W)/+ 6 (E) +0(NW)/+2(SE) +1c (W)/+3(NE) +1c(SE)/+4c(N) Blue SW White/Red Midlands 20 May Blue +2/+3 -1 +2c/+3c +3c/+4c Red/White +0(SW)/+10 (N) -2(SW)/+4 (N) +1c (S)/+3 (N) +2c(SE)/+6c(NW) White South, Red Midlands 21 May Yellow -3/-2 -2 +0c +1c/+2c Red/White -3(SW)/+ 1(NE) -2(SW)/-0(NE) -0c(SW)/+1(NE) +1c(SE)/+6c(N) White/Red South Deep Red Midlands 22 May Yellow -10 -6/-5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Light Red -10(SW)/-2(NE) -6(NE)/-2(SW) -2c (S)/+1(NE) -0c(SE)/+4c(NE) Red/Deep Red Generally [/code]
Generally quite positive for Glastonbury in June and for the UK as a whole.

For July however less positive with more in the way of unsettled weather and a bit wetter for northern parts of the UK faring better.

So overall a very mixed picture, with no real pattern as of yet. Hopefully the charts next week will be a more positive.
Sign in to follow this  


0 Comments


Recommended Comments

There are no comments to display.

×
×
  • Create New...