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Alps Weather Forecast 23 January 2015

J10

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[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
Last week was a much better week than recently, the forecasted snow arrived in abundance last weekend, and largely cold conditions have remained ever since.

[size=4][font=arial][b]Synoptic Pattern[/b][/font][/size]

[font=arial]Currently the Alps has cold winds from the East to North East squeezed between the High to North West and a low pressure system over Italy.
[attachment=240930:Alps 23 Jan.JPG] [attachment=240929:ALps 23 Jan +24.JPG]

Over the weekend colder air will edge in from the North West (850Hpa sub -5c), over the top of the High with low pressure remaining to the south east of the Alps.
[attachment=240928:Alps 23 Jan +48.JPG] [attachment=240927:Alps 23 Jan + 72.JPG]

This weather pattern of High Pressure riding from the Azores High will continue into next week, at times this introducing slightly milder in from the Atlantic, more so for western areas of the Alps, but no sign so of massively mild weather and always colder to the east.
[attachment=240926:Alps 23 Jan + 96.JPG] [attachment=240925:ALps 23 Jan + 120.JPG]

Perhaps milder for a time, after midweek, with westerly winds but then signs of turning more generally unsettled from the Northwest, and this perhaps reintroducing colder air.[/font]
[size=4][attachment=240924:Alps 23 Jan + 144.JPG] [attachment=240923:Alps 23 Jan + 168.JPG][/size]

[size=4][b][font=arial]Precipitation[/font][/b][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]Dry to start in the west, showers over western Austria on Saturday morning. More general precipitation edging in from the North West in the afternoon for Switzerland and SW Germany, spreading eastwards overnight into Austria, with showery precipitation over NE Switzerland, S Germany and NW Austria for Sunday daytime and evening. Snow below 800m at worst daytime Saturday, 200-400m overnight [/font][/size]
[attachment=240955:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24.png] [attachment=240963:Alps 23 Jan Precip + 30.png]

[size=4][font=arial]Monday sees are lingering snow showers fading by morning, with more general precipitation edging in from the North West with moderate precipitation for Switzerland, S Germany, and the French Alps and perhaps W Austria. Snow above 600m in Eastern areas, perhaps as high as 1000m in the Western Alps.[/font][/size]
[attachment=240962:Alps 23 Jan Precip + 48.png] [attachment=240961:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 57.png]

[size=4][font=arial]This spreading South East overnight into Tuesday with moderate precipitation for a time over Central areas but this dying out by the afternoon. Snow above about 800m daytime, to sea level overnight. [/font]
[font=arial]Some showers in places on Wednesday, with snow above circa 600m. [/font][/size]

[attachment=240960:Alps 23 Jan midweek.png] [attachment=240959:Alps 23 Jan THurs.png] [attachment=240957:Alps 23 Jan Midweek 2.png]

[size=4][font=arial]Towards the weekend further bands of precipitation edging from the North West, looking heavy for SW Germany, Switzerland and the French Alps, fringing Austria at times. Snow above 1000m or so to start this falling to around 400m later. [/font][/size]

So plenty of precipitation for much of the Alps, however looking a far bit drier for Italy. Currently modeling also suggests a fair bit of precipitation for Thursday into Friday, so uncertainty at this stage.
[attachment=240967:Rmgfs120sum.gif] [attachment=240966:Rmgfs144sum 23 jan.gif]
[size=4][font=arial][b]Freezing Levels (Based on 12Hz GFS run – Fri 23 Jan)[/b]

Sat – 400m-800m S Germany, N Switzerland, N and E Austria, 800-1200m French Alps and the remainder of Austria and Switzerland, 1400-1600m N Italy
Sun – 400m-600m Germany, French Alps, most of Switzerland and Austria, 600m-1000m for the Italy and the southern areas of Switzerland and Austria
[attachment=240955:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24.png][/font][/size] [attachment=240964:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 24b.png][attachment=240954:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 48.png]
[size=4][font=arial]Mon – 400-800m Austria, S Germany, N and E Switzerland, 800-1000, NW Italy, French Alps, 1000-1400, Far NW Italy, SW Switzerland
Tue – 600-800m Central and Northern Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland, 1000-1400 S Switzerland, N Italy, SW Austria, French Alps
[attachment=240953:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 72.png] [attachment=240952:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 96.png]

Wed– 400-800m Austria, S Germany, N and E Switzerland, 1000m-1400m French Alps SW Austria and S Switzerland
Thurs – 400-800m Eastern Austria 1000m-1400m French Alps SW Austria and S Switzerland
Fri – 400m-600m Germany, French Alps, most of Switzerland and Austria, 600m-800m for the southern areas of Switzerland and Austria, 800-1000m Northern Italy
[attachment=240951:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 120.png] [attachment=240950:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 144.png] [attachment=240949:Alps 23 Jan Temps + 168.png][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b][/font][/size]
[size=4][font=arial]So while not quite cold as recently, it looks mostly cold this week, with temps below freezing all week at high level, and at worst freeze thaw at lower levels. And no blowtorch southwesteries. There will be frequent precipitation much of this light to moderate, it seems likely that above 1500m all of this will be snow, with 1000-1500m seeing the vast of precipitation falling as snow, with more of a mix below this. [/font][/size]

All in all, this should mean an improvement in snow conditions for most of the Alps.

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