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Weather guide Monday 19th to Sunday 25th January 2015

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly cold and frosty with a few wintry showers but often dry; more unsettled with snow risk Tuesday to Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

A mild start to last week - it reached 12c in places on Monday which was a wet day especially for West Wales (WW). It turned colder on Tuesday with some areas getting snow, parts of WW saw quite a bit, several inches on high ground, even Llanwnnen collected 3cm relatively low down by the Teifi valley. Further wintry showers into Tuesday evening and night with vivid lightning and thunder across Wales, large hail and a tornado affecting Haverfordwest! Quite strange to watch the lightning flashing away while stood on a snow covered lawn! Wednesday evening and night saw heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, about an inch of rain for much of Wales and the Cotswolds, and locally damaging winds, highest gusts 96mph Capel Curig, 83mph Aberdaron, 81mph Mumbles with 61mph here at Llanwnnen (site record SRB 2013) Parts of the Midlands relatively unscathed though getting little rain and shelter from the worst of the winds. The low did have a warm sector overnight Wednesday when temperatures widely 10 or 11c. Chilly then since Thursday with wintry showers and some further temporary slight snow coverings in places, particularly Friday night (1cm Llanwnnen) and including parts of the Cotswolds and South Midlands. A fresh 10cm lay over the Brecon Beacons on Saturday morning.

The first 17 days of January have been wet across Wales and much of the Midlands, but only a little above average for some parts of the Midlands, 125mm so far here at Llanwnnen, 41mm at Coventry, and 31mm Long Lawford thus far. It has been a mild month to date.

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Quite a cold week ahead, indeed it looks like being the coldest week since March 2013 such was the absence of cold throughout last Winter. Sunny intervals and a few wintry showers for the most part with plenty of dry, bright weather between, and frosty nights. However Tuesday and Wednesday sees an unsettled interlude, and given the chilly air there could be some sleet and snow about, although this perhaps not widespread at lower levels, for high ground (above say 250m) though the mid week period will be quite snowy with a good few inches settling up there.

A frosty, sunny Sunday morning for many, largely dry this aftenoon with further sunny spells and the odd wintry shower, especially for Pembrokeshire as a 'Dangler' shower line may set up. Rather cold highs between 4 and 6c with a moderate north breeze. Clear and calm tonight with a sharp frost and freezing fog in places, lows between -3 and -6c, milder for most coasts. A slight ridge over us for Monday so a dry cold day in store. Freezing fog patches may be slow to clear and where these linger temperatures struggling to reach 0c, but elsewhere sunny spells and chilly highs between 2 and 4c with little wind. Another frost sets in during Monday evening and a dry, frosty night for the Midlands down as low as -4c, but clouding over WW by around midnight.

Tricky predictions follow with fine and shifting margins dictating just where it will rain or snow: an occluded front edges east during Tuesday this bringing some rain, sleet and snow across Wales in the early hours, snow more likely inland and especially above 150m. This mix of precipitation moves onto the Midlands through Tuesday morning, again rain or sleet more likely at low levels with snow tending to be restricted to land above about 150m but this by no means certain, and it could turn out that even some low level places see snow falling at least for a time on Tuesday. Coastal areas of WW for sure will only be getting rain however. The wintry mix in any case clears WW afternoon with sunny intervals and the odd wintry shower following before dusk. Highs Tuesday between 2 and 5c with quite light winds. Some clearances during Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, however another wintry band of weather is set to move in from the WNW during the night. Slightly colder air digging in and so perhaps this band falling more generally as sleet or snow, with hills in particularly getting several cm coverings, but even some lower ground could have a covering come Wednesday morning.

A flabby low slowly sinks south over the UK during Wednesday and with the still rather cold airmass there could be some wintry surprises for some! Bands of wintry precipitation or wintry showers within the lows circulation, although equally there will be areas where it is largely dry. All we can say is that there is a risk of snow for some places once more, perhaps the NE Midlands most at risk? Other places will see only rain, sleet or hail (especially coasts) while others escape largely dry, but for some of us a snowfall will occur during Wednesday even giving some accumulation. For hills above about 250m it should be snow all the way so long as precipitation is falling that is, with a good few inches settling should this happen. Maxima Wednesday generally 2 to 4c, perhaps 6c for coastal SW Wales. Wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow continue well into Wednesday night, with perhaps the Midlands seeing a spell of snow and a covering even to lower levels by Thursday morning, but anywhere really could wake to a covering of snow. Clear intervals too which will allow slight frosts to form and so there will be icy stretches to watch for even if no snow cover exists, lows down to -2c in places.

During Thursday the low sinks south into the Continent, a drier, brighter day expected with sunny intervals, but still some further wintry showers about and a cold NE breeze, highs just 2 to 4c. Any showers die out pm Thursday and it will be a frosty night, minima between -3 and -5c generally and even colder where there is snow cover, perhaps a -9c here and there. By the end of the week a degree of uncertainty as to whether the cold weather relinquishes or holds on over the weekend? On the whole a prediction of it staying on the cold side through most of the weekend would seem applicable. Plenty of dry weather for Friday and Saturday then but some further wintry outbreaks are possible in places too but these probably not widespread if at all. Some sunny spells and frosty nights. Sunday too could hold onto chilly and fairly dry weather..
[attachment=239881:PPVG89 dry frost poss ff MO cold.png][attachment=239882:ecmt850.048 cold frosty Mo.png][attachment=239883:PPVJ89 wintry mix r cold Tu.png][attachment=239885:ecmt850.072 unsettled TU WE wintry mix chiefly hill snow r cold.png][attachment=239886:ecmt850.096 cold wintry precip about WE.png][attachment=239893:PPVL89 wintry mix WE chiefly hill snow cold.png][attachment=239898:viewimage wintry bands about We cold.png][attachment=239890:ecmt850.144 disruption wintry chances later FR.png][attachment=239887:viewimage wintry mix disturbance r cold Sa.png][attachment=239892:ecmt850.168 frsoty R Su.png][attachment=239894:viewimage precip TU WE otherwise m dry.png][attachment=239895:viewimage r cold week.png][attachment=239896:viewimage unsettled mid week.png][attachment=239897:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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thanks for that forecast ,although i,m over the channel in somerset it gives an idea on what to expect ,but must be said the coming week very hard from a forecasters point with many things in play ,it could be just 1c that makes a big difference on snow settling or slush ,cheers 

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Indeed its interesting trying to work it all out, but its a hit and miss week on the whole if its snow you are after :) Some areas will be in luck though I'm sure!

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