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Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th December 2014

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TonyH

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[size=4][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain at times and localised flooding; fine Christmas Day; potentially stormy late Friday into Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Very mild indeed during the middle of last week, highest readings on Thursday Hereford at 15.3c, much of the Midlands above 13c. Exceptionally mild by night, many places stayed above 11c during Wednesday night with some spots still over 13c in the early hours of Friday - virtually as mild as it gets in December! As expected West Wales (WW) saw the worst of the rain last week, the mild, moist air having no problem precipitating out over the hills while in contrast much of the Midlands escaped mainly dry for most of Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately the Capel Curig rain gauge has been faulty but pretty sure over 100mm up there Tuesday to Friday, the Teifi was in spate Friday so quite likely the Cambrians received above 75mm, here at Llanwnnen next to the valley 37mm fell in this period. Not much in the way of frost last week with all the mild air over us.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Through to Tuesday night we are in a very mild moist WSW flow having travelled thousands of miles across the Atlantic. A mostly cloudy 3 days ahead then, very mild mostly being above 10c throughout, brisk SW or west winds and rain or drizzle at times, Snowdonia and perhaps some other hilly districts of WW likely to see a lot of rain in this period, over 100mm with flooding issues for Snowdonia. Some detail on this: Sunday afternoon cloudy, mild and breezy with occasional light rain or drizzle, probably very little for the Midlands though, highs between 10 and 12c. Temperatures hold above 9c during Sunday night, further light rain or drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, with a fresh to strong WSW wind. A similar day but windier Monday, largely cloudy and damp, only a little light rain or drizzle for the Midlands, a thoroughly damp, drizzly day for much of WW, and turning increasingly wet over NW Wales through the day. Very mild, maxima 11 to 13c. Some cloud breaks producing bright intervals across favoured sheltered parts of the Midlands may result in the odd 14c being achieved, this some 7c above the late December norm! Winds gusting to severe gale force (50mph) for exposed places during Monday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Similarly damp and drizzly for Tuesday night, still windy and very mild no lower than 9c anywhere. Again Snowdonia could be receiving a lot of rain and flooding could well be an issue by this stage across NW Wales. More of the same Tuesday as well, perhaps largely dry for the Midlands, but damp and drizzly across WW again, and as we go through the day it turns more generally wet here with some heavier bursts of rain. Quite windy and perhaps a touch less mild highs between 9 and 11c. This more general rain front then heads SE crossing the Midlands on Tuesday night as WW eventually dries up, and another mild night. Rain should clear the Midlands first thing on Christmas Eve, with cooler air behind giving sunny intervals and just the odd shower. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon between 6 and 8c but a cool WNW breeze. Clear spells overnight lead to a widespread ground frost, minima 1 to 3c, with a few spots attaining 0c, a mostly dry night too, just the odd shower for NW Wales and NW Midlands possible.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Christmas Day looks a pleasant one due a ridge of high pressure, a frosty start in places, and a largely dry, bright day with sunny spells just a gentle NW breeze. Just the odd shower affecting WW and Staffordshire into the afternoon with maxima close to the average at 6 to 8c. Clearing skies and light winds during the evening lead to another widespread ground frost and perhaps local air frost as temperatures dip close to freezing by midnight. Likely then that cloud and breeze increases after midnight across WW lifting temperatures with the frost gone by dawn here, but expect a frosty start to Boxing Day for the Midlands. High pressure gives way during Boxing Day permitting rain fronts from the west. A cloudy day with spells of rain for WW and clouding over during the morning for the Midlands too with occasional rain here throughout the afternoon and evening. Turning into a wet a windy day then but temperatures eventually quite mild after the chilly start, perhaps up to 10c by evening, although the really mild air could be resticted to SW Wales?[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In fact late Boxing Day into Saturday has the models showing potential for a rapidly deepening low to cross the UK, obviously this feature is almost a week away, but potential for some damaging weather on Friday night and into Saturday depending on its track and how much it deepens. Best bet is for a deepening low to cross England Friday night into Saturday and which is likely to be bringing heavy rain and localised flooding along with widespread gales and possibly damaging winds. The latest GFS model output is not good with damaging destructive gales affecting all parts but especially the Midlands and East next Saturday, this driving down wintry showers and with blizzards for high ground! Just one option though with the ECM model showing a much more tame affair, but still there is a stormy possibility to be wary of. Next weekend then looking at least chilly, windy and showery, perhaps with a longer spell of rain and hill snow. Looking out to the start of 2015 and its looking mixed and perhaps turning colder?[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=234239:PPVE89 windy VM drizzle Mo wet NW Wales pm.png][attachment=234241:ecmt850.072 unsettled to Tu night wet NW Wales VM.png][attachment=234243:PPVJ89 wet WW m dry til later Mids mild.png][attachment=234240:viewimage VM windy damp MO TU wet NW Wales.png][attachment=234244:PPVL89 WEd rain clears early to bright odd sh colder pm.png][attachment=234245:ecmt850.096 Chr Eve colder bright few sh.png][attachment=234246:PPVO89 m dry Chr Day to frost night.png][attachment=234247:viewimage m dry bright Chr Day.png][attachment=234248:ecmt850.144 becomes wet windy BD.png][attachment=234249:viewimage heavy rain gales Fr night.png][attachment=234250:viewimage stormy wintry showers Sat.png][attachment=234251:ecmt850.168 windy showers lsr hill snow WEND.png][attachment=234253:viewimage rain times dry CHr Day.png][attachment=234254:viewimage H TH deep L SA.png][attachment=234255:viewimage variable temps after mild start.png][attachment=234256:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/size]
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