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Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st December 2014

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable: Rain or showers at times, near average to mild temperatures; driest Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

[font=arial][size=3]An unsettled, often windy and chilly week gone, however temperatures were not far from the monthly average (around 8c) on most days, just that the wind made it feel quite cold However, a brief warm sector incursion on Tuesday saw maxima widely above 11c with a few spots such as Hereford managing a very mild 13c. Some rain or showers fell on most days in most places last week, as is usual parts of West Wales coming off quite wet overall for the week. With all the cloud and wind, and in spite of the rather cold air over us, frost was restricted until late in the week. There was some hill snow at times, but generally you had to go above 1000 feet to experience this and even then amounts appear to have been small. Heavy rain Thursday night gave over one inch to parts of Wales and half inch or so to much of the Midlands, wettest spot Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 34.6mm. After the mild, wet night Friday was mostly dry with sunny spells but quite cold, as indeed was Saturday.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Overall a rather mild and unsettled week to come, further rain or showers at times. However Monday is mostly dry and bright and Friday into next weekend looks like seeing brighter, colder conditions with night frosts. It has already turned mild on Sunday morning across Wales with rain in places, indeed a cloudy, mild and rather windy afternoon too, some more rain at times, but not a washout. Mostly cloudy and breezy for the Midlands, it was chilly this morning but turning fairly mild this afternoon when there will be a litlle rain scattered about but some spots remain dry. Highs Sunday 10 or 11c for Wales and 8 or 9c the Midlands. Rain clearing West Wales (WW) after dark with a spell of mostly light rain this evening for the Midlands, just a few showers left overnight around coastal Wales. Dry soon after midnight for the Midlands, just a touch of ground frost possible for inland WW and the Marches. Monday is a quiet, mostly dry day with sunny spells, just the odd shower affecting parts of WW. Light winds Monday with maxima close to the mid December average at 7 to 9c. Clear periods and a slight frost on Monday night, down as low as -2c in places as a weak ridge crosses southern UK.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A dry bright start to Tuesday but soon clouding over for Wales as Atlantic fronts approach. The Midlands perhaps staying dry and bright well into the afternoon and a chilly day here no higher than 6c by tea time. For WW however rain arrives during the afternoon accompanied by a freshening SW wind and along with much milder air by evening. Indeed the night is set to milder than the day everywhere! Rain at times then for Tuesday night, heavy bursts in places, temperatures between 10 and 12c for all areas after midnight. Quite a windy night too. The weather for both Wednesday and Thursday is then controlled by a deep low in the vicinity of Iceland. Elongated fronts remain strung out across Wales and England through this 48 hours or so, the air is mild and moist, this giving further spells of rain, especially for WW, and it will be windy at times too. Some detail then and Wednesday is a largely cloudy, mild and quite windy day with rain and drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, but expect no more than a few spots across the Midlands. Highs Wednesday not really changing from overnight values of 10 to 12c, although the odd 13c is possible over the South Midlands where there could be some brighter intervals. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Wednesday night is again very mild with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9 or 10c. Thursday a similar picture of mild, damp and cloudy conditions, worst of the wet weather across Snowdonia and other high ground of WW, and where some quite high rainfall totals could be totting up after two days rain! Maxima Thursday once more between 10 and 13c, best for the SE Midlands, but a fresh to strong SW to west wind. The rain then perhaps more widespread and heavier for Thursday night which again is mild and rather windy. At long last the cold front should be clearing through by Friday morning taking the rain away and introducing brighter, colder conditions. If this proves to be the case then temperatures gradually fall off through the day, afternoon values likely to be at 5 to 7c, and there will be some showers about chiefly for WW and the NW Midlands. with hail in these. Clear spells with a widespread frost Friday night, lows around zero, but with a breeze continuing to feed showers into parts of WW. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A chilly NW breeze with further showers for WW Saturday too, but much of the Midlands escape dry and bright, highs between 5 and 7c which will feel quite cold. Hail showers for Wales with a little snow possible for highest ground above 500m. MIxed signals as we get as far out as Sunday, with indications of a transient ridge of high pressure so it could be a mostly dry cool day after frost - but this by no means definite. A Christmas prediction: a White one is most unlikely away from Scottish Mountains![/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=233249:ecmt850.048 dry some sun Mo.png][attachment=233250:viewimage slight fr MO night.png][attachment=233251:PPVJ89 dry chilly Mids rain pm WW.png][attachment=233252:PPVL89 We mild rain in place esp WW.png][attachment=233253:PPVO89 mild windy wet Th.png][attachment=233254:ecmt850.120 mild wet windy Th.png][attachment=233256:metslp.120 CF through Th night.png][attachment=233255:ecmt850.144 colder bright some showers FR.png][attachment=233257:ecmt850.168 transient R weekend.png][attachment=233258:viewimage few showers Su.png][attachment=233259:viewimage changeable week overall.png][attachment=233260:viewimage v mild mid week otherwise near ave.png][attachment=233261:viewimage WW rain times most days.png][attachment=233262:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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