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Weather guide Monday 1st to Sunday 7th December 2014

TonyH

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[b]Headline: Becoming mostly dry and rather cold with some frosty and foggy nights[/b][/font][/color]
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[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Frosty nights early last week, Sunday night registered a low of -4.8c here at Llanwnnen, which, as occasionally happens, was colder than any of the official UK weather stations, Pembrey Sands (Carms) being the coldest of these at min -3.1c along with Benson (Oxon). A lovely sunny Monday followed but it felt a bit more like Winter, 7c the high here inland compared with 11.6c at Milford Haven on the coast - the mildest spot in the UK. Monday night even colder for many places, the -5.2c here seems to have been coldest in the UK again! However I only need delve back into the record books one year to find a colder November night, that of 23/11/13 was a chilling -7.3c in our garden. At Bablake, Coventry -2.6c did though make it the coldest November night for 4 years (-8.5c there during the severe late November 2010 cold spell) [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]Bablake WS[/url] Freezing fog quite widespread on Monday night especially over the Midlands, the slow clearance of this restricted daytime temperatures to just 3c at Sennybridge and 4c at Coleshill Tuesday. Mild weather returned by the end of last week though, on Friday Pembrey got up to 13.7c, even milder Saturday when Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth was the warm spot at max 15.6c with plenty of sunshine! Rainfall amounts generally rather negligible last week although the Midlands was damp at times.

November 2014 has been a mild month, indeed 2014 could be the warmest year in the 350 year Central England Temperature (CET) series - only a cold December would scupper this! Rainfall has been quite variable from place to place during November; the wettest regions being Pembrokeshire and parts of the Midlands with respect to the average, with Anglesey and the Aberystwyth area having quite a dry month. Some monthly totals with % of average:

Llanwnnen 139mm 97%
Aberporth 122mm 112%
Trawsgoed 108mm 76%
Pembrey Sands 159mm approx 129%
[b]Milford Haven 186mm approx 141%[/b]
[b]Valley, Anglesey 60mm approx 58%[/b]
Coventry 87.4mm 150%
Church Lawford 68.4mm 113%
Long Lawford 71mm 127%
Pershore 99mm 175%
Little Rissington: 95mm 125%


[b]The week ahead[/b]

Early December looks to be shaping up mostly dry but colder as successive high pressure areas affect the UK, with us now into being Winter any clear skies will readily lead to sharp night frosts and the formation of thick fog patches, this can be reluctant to lift with the sun now at its weakest. Often fairly cold then looking ahead, but little sign of pronounced cold weather as yet! Sunday is another dry, mild day with sunny spells and just light winds, highs 11 to 13c, and the last time we are likely to experience such mildness for several weeks at least! Clear intervals tonight could give localised ground frost and fog patches, lowest temperatures 1 or 2c. Generally dry but somewhat cooler on Monday, variable and rather extensive cloud, misty for parts of the Midlands, maxima 8 to 10c, a few places catching a drizzly shower perhaps. During Monday night a weakening cold front moves down from the NW this bringing some rain to West Wales (WW) around midnight. Only a little rain left on the front as it arrives across the Midlands by dawn Tuesday and some places remain dry here. Lows Monday night 3 to 5c.

The front lingers but fizzles out over the East Midlands during Tuesday, so rather cloudy and cool for the East Midlands still with a little rain or drizzle in places. Elsewhere a dry day with sunny intervals, decent sunny spells even for WW. Colder with a keen NE breeze highs 6 to 8c. By Tuesday night we are under a ridge from off the Atlantic, clear spells and a widespread frost lowest temperatures -3c or -4c for prone spots of Wales, but more generally around zero. Perhaps some mist and fog patches too by morning. High pressure over the UK on Wednesday, dry with some sunshine, WW most favoured with shelter from the NE breeze. Rather cold maxima on Wednesday generally of 5 to 7c but 9c possible for parts of the WW coast where it may be quite a nice sunny day! Frost and local fog develops once again on Wednesday night given clear periods, down below zero fairly widely, again -3c even -4c for the coldest spots.

Still a dry chilly picture Thursday too, sunny spells if you are fortunate, mistly and cold if not! Highs for most in the 5 to 8c range and with light winds again. Widespread slight frost and fog in places once more Thursday night, -3c possible for inland Wales. Friday may see a weak cold front crossing the UK from the NW but it is doubtful this will produce much if any rain, a rather cold day once more should be expected with plenty of cloud. The next belt of high pressure looks like extending across southern Britain next weekend, so the mostly dry weather continues with further frost and fog by night. HIghs still below average so expect no better than 5 to 7c, colder where mist and fog lingers into the afternoon, with sunny spells where it clears or did not form in the first place.
[attachment=231344:PPVG89 m dry r cloudy MO.png][attachment=231345:PPVJ89 m dry colder Tu.png][attachment=231346:ecmt850.072 m dry bright colder Tu.png][attachment=231347:PPVL89 dry r cold WE.png][attachment=231350:h850t850eu dry r cold WE frost local fog.png][attachment=231348:ecmt850.096 dry chilly frost and fog WE TH.png][attachment=231349:PPVO89 dry bright W cloudier Mid TH.png][attachment=231351:ecmt850.168 dry weekend night frost and fog.png][attachment=231352:h850t850eu dry chilly weekend fr fo likely.png][attachment=231353:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=231354:prmslWest~Midlands mostly H all week.png][attachment=231355:t850West~Midlands r cold after MO.png][attachment=231356:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]


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GFS sure underdo's those minima! Nothing lower than -2c showed for last night yet several spots including here down to -5c.

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