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Weather guide Monday 24th to Sunday 30th November 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often dry but chilly with frost and fog up to Thursday; thereafter rain at times and milder[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Lampeter area had an unexpected air frost last Monday night, the low of -0.7c here at Llanwnnen colder than any official UK weather station, closest values in our regions being Sennybridge and Shawbury minima 2.8c. Tuesday a lovely sunny day across much of West Wales (WW) with Wednesday a decent day too. Much of the week had temperatures in the average to mild bracket, with 13c reached over parts of WW Thursday. Much of the week was rather dry, particularly the Midlands, but rain arrived for Friday and during daylight it was rather cool over the Midlands at just 8c or so max. Saturday in contrast a very mild day widely reaching 13 to 15c - top spot Hereford at 16.1c, nothing though compared with the 24.8c reached at Socoa beneath the Pyrénées in France yesterday![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The coming week[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A difficult week to call - although there will be rain in places mid week, the outlook through to Thursday is mostly dry with sunny intervals (particularly for WW) and frosty and in places foggy nights as temperatures drop to where they should be at the end of November! It then probably turns unsettled with more widespread rain at times for Friday and into next weekend, but it must be stressed that uncertainty reigns by the end of the week! Lingering rain over the East Midlands this Sunday afternoon gradually edges away, while for Wales and the West Midlands its a dry afternoon with the sun breaking through. A cooler day highs at 8's and 9's c with light winds. Clearing skies and calm this evening sees frost setting in along with the formation of fog patches. It could well be the coldest night of the Season thus far (well we have n't had any cold as yet!) down below zero widely, coldest spots of inland Wales and the Marches at -2 or -3c. High pressure over southern Britain on Monday and typically for November this will mean thick fog in places which slowly thins and clears to give sunny spells for the afternoon. Where mist and fog persists longest a chilly day at just 5 or 6c max, but where it brightens up near average at 8 or 9c. Clear and cold again for Monday night again with fog in places, frosty lows generally -1 or -2c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A ridge hangs on giving another dry day on Tuesday, some sunny intervals - once any fog and low cloud clears that is, rather cold though maxima just 5 to 7c, milder around coasts. However a shallow low over France is bringing a front up from the south and we could see rain breaking out in places by evening. A cloudy night follows with rain at times, not everywhere wet though, NW Wales may well escape, and no frost concerns for Tuesday night. The weakening weather front keeps it cloudy with some rain in places during Wednesday for the Midlands, while WW has a dry, bright day with sunny intervals. Maxima Wednesday 7 to 9c, even the odd 10c for parts of coastal WW where it could be quite a nice day! Light winds and clearing skies sees more fog developing on Wednesday night with frost in places, lows between 0 and 3c generally.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Thursday and we are between weather systems but with Atlantic fronts crossing Ireland towards us. Mostly dry with sunny intervals after any early fog, highs a chilly 7c or so for the Midlands but a milder day for WW as southerly winds increase, 10 to 12c here by evening. Uncertainties by this stage around frontal progress/ nature, but cloud and some rain for WW perhaps during Thursday afternoon becoming more widespread and heavier during the evening seems the likely outcome. It is doubtful the rain will extend far into the Midlands until Friday however as the fronts stall over the west during Friday night, so potentially a wet one for WW. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The models are quite difficult to interpret by the end of the week (more than unsual!) and so things may not pan out exactly as anticipated here: a 'disrupting' (splitting/ stalling) trough is somewhere over southern UK during Friday so there will be areas of wet weather but hard to ascertain exactly where - as the frontal sytem's behaviour and progress will be rather unpredictable until nearer the event. Suffice to say wet in places, not everywhere though, and for some of us just a cloudy day with little rain. Temperatures should be average to quite mild, say 8 to 11c on Friday. Next weekend model outputs remain indecisive with various possibilities, best guess is somewhat unsettled with some rain at times and on the mild side with frost unlikely by this stage.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=230679:PPVG89 (1) early fog then bright dry Mon.png][attachment=230680:ecmt850.048 dry Mo.png][attachment=230681:PPVJ89 Tu m dry after fog patches little rain eve.png][attachment=230682:ecmt850.072 rain places Tu night to WEd.png][attachment=230683:PPVL89 little rain MIds m dry Wed WW.png][attachment=230684:PPVO89 m dry Th rain wind eve WW.png][attachment=230685:ecmt850.120 rain wind WW Th night milder.png][attachment=230686:metslp.120 rain wind TH night.png][attachment=230687:h850t850eu rain places FR.png][attachment=230688:ecmt850.168 mild somewhat unsettled weekend.png][attachment=230689:h850t850eu changeable weekend some rain times r mild.png][attachment=230690:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire often dry to TH then unsettled.png][attachment=230691:prmslWarwickshire H early low late.png][attachment=230692:t850Warwickshire chilly early week milder later.png][attachment=230693:mgram_Birmingham m dry fr and fog becoming unsettled.png][/font][/color]
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Looks like a mild Friday and weekend yes but perhaps little in the way of rain now.

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