Winter 2014 - 2015 Forecast December to March
Entry posted by Zenarcher
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I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.
[b]December[/b]
Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as December progresses its more likely to gradually become colder than average.
[attachment=230421:decsim.png]
Rainfall - Most of England and Wales can expect a wetter than average month along with parts of Ireland and Scotland while the far North West of Scotland looks fairly average and may end up drier than average.
[attachment=230420:DecRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS predictions seem to match the Climate Simulator, with close to average temperatures for most of the UK. Temperatures across England and Wales do look like they will be slightly higher than average but only by a very small margin.
[attachment=230422:DecTemp.png]
[size=5][b]December Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks of December (1st to 21st) is expected to be mainly unsettled with average rainfall totals and at times some heavy rainfall for places in Wales and England. High pressure is expected to sit to our North East forcing low pressure systems to track further South than usual thanks to a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. When the low pressure systems are not about high pressure will mainly be strong over England and Wales giving some short settled periods along with mild temperatures.
The last week of December (22nd to 31st) is expected to turn colder there seems to be a strong signal for this to occur I expect to see a blocking pattern occur around this point. The cold weather will bring snowfall mainly to the Northern half of the UK but high ground areas across all of the UK and Ireland could see snowfall. Strong Northerly winds with at times very low temperatures will affect the North West of the UK and all of Ireland. The rest of the UK that's further South can expect cold temperatures along with frosts and perhaps some short cold snaps producing wintry weather.
[b]January[/b]
Climate Simulator - It's going for temperatures to continue to stay on the cold side for the entire month.
[attachment=230424:jansim.png]
Rainfall - Mostly Wales, Southern parts of England and Ireland look to have just a small amount of rainfall more than average but mostly places look average for January.
[attachment=230423:JanRain.png]
Temperature - Again we see the Climate Simulator and CFS closely agreeing here. The CFS goes for average temperatures for all of the UK and Ireland.
[attachment=230425:JanTemp.png]
[size=5][b]January Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of January (1st to 18th) remains on the colder side with widespread frosts and some wintry weather affecting parts of the UK mainly in the North where winds will be strong at times as well. I expect the blocking pattern to weaken slightly here but still enough to give off some cold weather. The far South of Ireland and England will see some unsettled weather at times as low pressure systems pass nearby giving some wet and windy weather but average temperatures remain.
The second half of January (19th to 31st) turns much colder for all parts of the UK and Ireland as the Atlantic begins to lose some power and the blocking pattern begins to get stronger again. Some settled periods can be expected with frosts and drier spells along with some wintry weather affecting any parts of the UK and Ireland could occur at some point but most likely at the very end of the month.
[b]February[/b]
Climate Simulator - It's saying February looks to be the coldest month out of winter.
[attachment=230427:febsim.png]
Rainfall - It is looking very dry for most of the month, especially across England and Wales.
[attachment=230426:FebRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures again here.
[attachment=230428:FebTemp.png]
[size=5][b]February Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of February (1st to 15th) continues to stay on the cold side of things with some wintry weather being widespread across much of the country as the blocking remains strong up to this point and we could see some short dry spells occur.
The second half of February (16th to 28th) see's a change. The blocking pattern that's been mostly in control collapses as the Atlantic begins to take power again. England and Wales still enjoy settled weather though as high pressure remains over them giving off average temperatures and very dry weather. However for Ireland and Scotland while temperatures are close to average, a lot of wet and windy weather moves in for the remainder of the month.
[b]March[/b]
Climate Simulator - It says the first half will remain cold and the second half does become slighter warmer but stays just under average.
[attachment=230431:marsim.png]
Rainfall - It's looking mostly average with the South West of England perhaps seeing drier weather.
[attachment=230429:MarchRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures during March.
[attachment=230430:MarchTemp.png]
[size=5][b]March Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks (1st to 22nd) is looking mostly cold as the Atlantic begins to weaken again the blocking pattern reappears giving the UK and Ireland a chance to see more wintry weather.
The last week (23rd to 31st) the blocked pattern starts to collapse again and the cold temperatures start to rise. High pressure starts to move in across the South West giving off settled weather across the South as the North turns unsettled.
[b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - December mainly unsettled and average turning colder in the final part with a chance of snow. January mostly cold but unsettled in the South at times and turning colder everywhere towards the very end. February first half looking very cold and wintry but turning more unsettled in the North at the end and the South remains settled. March switches back to cold weather for most of the time but becomes more average and unsettled in the very end.
I will continue to do my monthly forecasts through the winter. I just decided to do a very long range forecast for this winter.
[b]December[/b]
Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as December progresses its more likely to gradually become colder than average.
[attachment=230421:decsim.png]
Rainfall - Most of England and Wales can expect a wetter than average month along with parts of Ireland and Scotland while the far North West of Scotland looks fairly average and may end up drier than average.
[attachment=230420:DecRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS predictions seem to match the Climate Simulator, with close to average temperatures for most of the UK. Temperatures across England and Wales do look like they will be slightly higher than average but only by a very small margin.
[attachment=230422:DecTemp.png]
[size=5][b]December Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks of December (1st to 21st) is expected to be mainly unsettled with average rainfall totals and at times some heavy rainfall for places in Wales and England. High pressure is expected to sit to our North East forcing low pressure systems to track further South than usual thanks to a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. When the low pressure systems are not about high pressure will mainly be strong over England and Wales giving some short settled periods along with mild temperatures.
The last week of December (22nd to 31st) is expected to turn colder there seems to be a strong signal for this to occur I expect to see a blocking pattern occur around this point. The cold weather will bring snowfall mainly to the Northern half of the UK but high ground areas across all of the UK and Ireland could see snowfall. Strong Northerly winds with at times very low temperatures will affect the North West of the UK and all of Ireland. The rest of the UK that's further South can expect cold temperatures along with frosts and perhaps some short cold snaps producing wintry weather.
[b]January[/b]
Climate Simulator - It's going for temperatures to continue to stay on the cold side for the entire month.
[attachment=230424:jansim.png]
Rainfall - Mostly Wales, Southern parts of England and Ireland look to have just a small amount of rainfall more than average but mostly places look average for January.
[attachment=230423:JanRain.png]
Temperature - Again we see the Climate Simulator and CFS closely agreeing here. The CFS goes for average temperatures for all of the UK and Ireland.
[attachment=230425:JanTemp.png]
[size=5][b]January Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of January (1st to 18th) remains on the colder side with widespread frosts and some wintry weather affecting parts of the UK mainly in the North where winds will be strong at times as well. I expect the blocking pattern to weaken slightly here but still enough to give off some cold weather. The far South of Ireland and England will see some unsettled weather at times as low pressure systems pass nearby giving some wet and windy weather but average temperatures remain.
The second half of January (19th to 31st) turns much colder for all parts of the UK and Ireland as the Atlantic begins to lose some power and the blocking pattern begins to get stronger again. Some settled periods can be expected with frosts and drier spells along with some wintry weather affecting any parts of the UK and Ireland could occur at some point but most likely at the very end of the month.
[b]February[/b]
Climate Simulator - It's saying February looks to be the coldest month out of winter.
[attachment=230427:febsim.png]
Rainfall - It is looking very dry for most of the month, especially across England and Wales.
[attachment=230426:FebRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures again here.
[attachment=230428:FebTemp.png]
[size=5][b]February Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of February (1st to 15th) continues to stay on the cold side of things with some wintry weather being widespread across much of the country as the blocking remains strong up to this point and we could see some short dry spells occur.
The second half of February (16th to 28th) see's a change. The blocking pattern that's been mostly in control collapses as the Atlantic begins to take power again. England and Wales still enjoy settled weather though as high pressure remains over them giving off average temperatures and very dry weather. However for Ireland and Scotland while temperatures are close to average, a lot of wet and windy weather moves in for the remainder of the month.
[b]March[/b]
Climate Simulator - It says the first half will remain cold and the second half does become slighter warmer but stays just under average.
[attachment=230431:marsim.png]
Rainfall - It's looking mostly average with the South West of England perhaps seeing drier weather.
[attachment=230429:MarchRain.png]
Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures during March.
[attachment=230430:MarchTemp.png]
[size=5][b]March Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks (1st to 22nd) is looking mostly cold as the Atlantic begins to weaken again the blocking pattern reappears giving the UK and Ireland a chance to see more wintry weather.
The last week (23rd to 31st) the blocked pattern starts to collapse again and the cold temperatures start to rise. High pressure starts to move in across the South West giving off settled weather across the South as the North turns unsettled.
[b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - December mainly unsettled and average turning colder in the final part with a chance of snow. January mostly cold but unsettled in the South at times and turning colder everywhere towards the very end. February first half looking very cold and wintry but turning more unsettled in the North at the end and the South remains settled. March switches back to cold weather for most of the time but becomes more average and unsettled in the very end.
I will continue to do my monthly forecasts through the winter. I just decided to do a very long range forecast for this winter.
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