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Weather guide Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd November 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Some rain at times but plenty of dry weather, rather benign[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A fairly mild breezy week gone with rain or showers at times, especially across Wales as is typical! A mostly dry start to last week for the Midlands in particular, not much rain until the latter part of the week, even then overall the week was not a wet one for the Midlands. Temperature wise consistently on the mild side especially by night - bar some ground frost at the very beginning and again across West Wales (WW) on Saturday night. Mumbles, Swansea reached a very mild 15c Thursday, a day on which many places exceeded 13c. Friday another very mild day with some sunny spells too, Mona on Anglesey attained 14.6c, with most places getting above 13c - it had been 13.3c at midnight here at Llanwnnen! This weekend, in spite of the proximity of low pressure, has been mostly dry, and for (WW) bright, although cooler for the Midlands with a NE breeze.

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Some rain at times in the coming week but with quite a lot of dry and benign if rather cloudy weather. No Autumn storms on the way just yet! Sunday afternoon is dry with some brightness for WW although with winds off the North Sea its a rather dull and dank day for the Midlands, with drizzly showers possible in places too. Highs Sunday ranging from 10 to 13c, best for SW Wales. During Sunday night a low moves into eastern England from the Continent, its associated frontal system bringing rain to the Midlands soon after midnight and onto WW by dawn. With all the cloud no lower than 5 to 7c tonight. Monday is largely overcast with further drizzly rain at times, more especially during the morning, although perhaps some late brightness for SW Wales before sunset. Quite a cool day highs of 8 to 10c, although a 12c where it brightens over Pembrokeshire is possible. Mostly cloudy on Monday night still a little drizzle in places, but largely dry, lows 4 to 6c.

Sunny intervals should appear for Tuesday which is a dry day bar the odd isolated shower, maxima of 9 to 11c bang on the mid November average with a moderate SE breeze. A dry night with clear intervals but no frost follows. A low in the Atlantic well west of Ireland is sending fronts our way on Wednesday however these should weaken considerably as they head towards a Scandinavian blocking high. Early brightness for the Midlands but Wednesday is a mostly cloudy day and rain soon arrives after dawn into SW Wales and edges slowly NE. Rain and drizzle, generally light, on and off much of the afternoon for Wales then, but the front tends to die over the Midlands so probably only a little rain here, and the East Midlands may get away with a completely dry day with a few sunny intervals. Familiar highs of 9 to 11c once more for Wednesday, but the SE wind could be fresh for a times over Wales during the day so making it feel chilly. Any rain and drizzle left over on Wednesday evening dies away overnight, plenty of cloud and no frost, no lower than 5 or 6c.

The high to our NE exerts a reasonably strong ridge across northern Britain by Thursday which should be a dry day for many with some sunny intervals. A touch milder at 10 to 12c but still a that keen SE breeze. For Friday and much of next weekend it looks as though the Scandinavian blocking high should continue to keep Atlantic influences at bay, so plenty more mostly dry weather seem likely, although we still get weakened fronts into western UK from time to time, so a little rain may occur at times and probably with a good deal of cloud for the most part. Temperatures next weekend should be up to average (around 10c) although a minority of the models do bring in cooler air and given that particular outcome there would be a frost risk. We must also be aware that as recent as yesterday the GFS was suggesting a rather wet weekend, such are the variations in model output a week hence!
[attachment=229930:PPVG89 drizzle esp am r cool.png][attachment=229931:PPVJ89 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229932:ecmt850.072 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229933:PPVL89 some rain pm WW m dry Mids WE.png][attachment=229934:h850t850eu light rain Wales m dry Mids WE block.png][attachment=229935:PPVO89 m dry some sun TH.png][attachment=229936:h850t850eu m dry TH.png][attachment=229937:ecmt850.120 TH dry.png][attachment=229938:ecmt850.168 m dry cooling weekend.png][attachment=229939:h850t850eu often dry ave weekend.png][attachment=229940:prcpWest~Midlands little rain times.png][attachment=229941:prmslWest~Midlands H dry TH FR at least.png][attachment=229942:t850West~Midlands mild or cool latter week.png][attachment=229943:mgram_Birmingham plenty of dry weather this week.png][/font][/color]


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Damned you! ...shallow low and cold front from the east subsequent SE flow breaking the cloud to give clear skies and air frost over Ceredigion!!

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