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Weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th November 2014

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cooler and showery with drier, brighter intervals; wet windy Thursday[/b]

[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Very mild much of last week, on Tuesday many places reached over 15c, with parts of the Midlands over 18c, warmest of all Church Lawford and nearby Coventry both at 19.9c, and some 7c above normal! Then a resurgence of really mild conditions from Thursday onward saw some remarkable warmth for the very end of October..with record temperatures by day and night for this time of year with 24c being reached in the London area. Here at Llanwnnen Thursday night only fell to 14.9c while Friday peaked at 19.4c. Many places exceeded 19c over our regions on Friday. Readings for this remarkable day across our regions Pershore 22c, Trawsgoed, Church Lawford, Coleshill and Little Rissington all attaining 21c 70f. Rainfall amounts were small in total last week, West Wales being mostly cloudy and at times drizzly while the Midlands saw a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather. Wales had heavy rain and strong winds Saturday evening however (time of my compiling this)

October was very mild and for most places quite wet. Some rainfall totals:

Capel Curig 353mm
Llanwnnen 193.8mm
Aberporth 110.2mm
Long Lawford 63.8mm
Coventry, Bablake School 72.2mm

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Cooler weather than we have been accustomed to in this coming week, down nearer the average for early November (11 or 12c). Monday and Tuesday are both to be dominated by an area of low pressure that is slow moving over the UK. Some sunny intervals but occasional showers, heavy with hail in places. As is often the case in these set ups at this time of year, warm seas means WW is most prone to showers while parts of the Midlands could escape with a dry, bright day. Cooler on Monday highs of 10 to 12c with quite a fresh SW wind. Clear spells and only a few showers for Monday night, chilly lows of 3 or 4c inland. Tuesday a similar day, showery but with sunny intervals and as usual some places escape with a mostly dry day. Quite cool highs between 9 and 11c but less wind than there will be Monday. Clear spells overnight and with light winds some places seeing grass frost by dawn Wednesday with lows of 1 to 3c.

Wednesday is transitory ridge day so a dry bright day with sunny spells, a few unlucky spots catching a rogue shower. Temperatures reaching 10 to 12c with fairly light breezes. Clear skies on Wednesday evening leads to local ground frost again down to 2c or so for the Midlands, but clouding over with the wind picking up for WW where temperatures are on the rise before midnight. A deep low south of Iceland brings wet and windy weather during Thursday, this may have set in by first thing across Wales and will soon reach the Midlands too. The rain especially heavy for WW on Thursday, a strong SW wind but a little milder at 12 or 13c max although these levels perhaps not reached until evening over the Midlands when the warm sector arrives. The rain could last well into the night especially over the Midlands, but should have cleared by Friday morning (unless it gets stalled by developing a wave which is possible). Friday then we should be back into a more showery regime with sunny intervals and a brisk SW breeze. Some heavy showers with hail for WW in particular, maxima 10 to 12c. Next weekend and low pressure still looks like dominating so further showers about, and a longer spell of wet weather could occur too. temperature look close to the average, frost should be unlikely.
[attachment=228506:PPVI89 showers Mo.png][attachment=228507:ecm500.072 r cool showery MO Tu.png][attachment=228508:PPVO89 Wed dry R.png][attachment=228509:ecmt850.096 m dry WE.png][attachment=228510:h850t850eu.png][attachment=228511:ecmt850.144 showers FR esp WW.png][attachment=228512:ecmt850.168 showery weekend.png][attachment=228513:viewimage lo wall week.png][attachment=228514:viewimage r cool to ave weeek.png][attachment=228515:viewimage showery week.png][/size][/font]

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