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Weather guide Monday 20th to Sunday 26th October 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with further rain at times; often mild but a cool windy blip Tuesday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights: [/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week began cool and in places wet, on Monday most places only reached 11 to 13c. Wet across the Midlands and South Wales, but much of West Wales (WW) narrowly missed this soaking. Parts of the Midlands had around an inch of rain Monday, wettest being Pershore, Worc 26.8mm. Torrential downpours over Wales on Thursday heralded the arrival of warm, humid sub- tropical air, 13mm in one hour at Llanwnnen lunchtime followed by rather warm, sunny intervals and a high of 16.6c, well above the mid October norm (14c). Thursday ended up the wettest day of the month so far with a total 31.9mm here. Many places have already exceeded their October rainfall averages, here at Llanwnnen the figure is 163mm to date (average 143mm) while Coventry is on 62mm (average 59.4mm). The very mild weather has lasted through until this weekend, Friday night was exceptionally mild for October, the low of 15.0c here being the warmest so far into October that I have recorded. Most of Wales and the Midlands remained above 15c in fact, with Trawsgoed, Mumbles and Pembrey even warmer not falling below 16c! Saturday in spite of being a windy day generally was the mildest day of the week, most places attaining 17 to 19c, not at all bad as we approach November![/size][/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4][b]The week ahead:[/b][/size]

[size=4]Unsettled again in the coming week, further rain at times, although perhaps not quite as wet as was last week, with the Midlands favoured for several essentially dry days; often mild, but with a cool blip Tuesday. Sunday is very mild again, after a warm night, quite a windy day, sunny intervals and a few scattered showers with highs 16 to 18c. Showers may become heavier and more frequent as we go through this afternoon over NW Wales and Cardigan Bay. A few showers keep up tonight for these same exposed areas but elsewhere a largely dry night with the wind easing and mild lows close to 10c. Brisk westerly winds brings a mix of sunny intervals and mostly light showers for Monday, the Midlands may be afforded shelter from the showers, quite mild at 13 to 15c. During Monday night a nasty little low which contains the remnants of ex- hurricane Gonzalo zips across Scotland. Although the worst of the wind and rain is over northern Britain, all of us see a spell of heavy rain after midnight along with a strong SW veering west wind with gales for exposed areas. The rain will have cleared all but the SE Midlands by dawn Tuesday. Tuesday itself is a cool, windy, showery day, fresh to strong NW winds feeding showers, some with hail, to typically exposed areas such as NW Wales, Cardigan Bay and the NW Midlands (Staffs to Birmingham), while elsewhere it could stay essentially dry and bright, just the odd rogue shower. Cool highs 10 to 12c. Showers die out Tuesday night with clear spells but not especially cold as a a breeze continues, so no lower than 5c to 7c.[/size]

[size=4]High pressure close to our south over France on Wednesday, near enough for a largely dry and bright day, especially Midlands, however a weak warm front clouds it over for WW afternoon with drizzle in places later. Maxima back up to the late October averages of 12 to 14c but it will be a breezy day. By Wednesday night we are in a broad warm sector bringing some rain and drizzle to WW in particular. A mild night no lower than 10c, and in fact temperatures may well be on the rise after midnight. A very mild SW flow for Thursday, lots of cloud but it could brighten a little over the Midlands where temperatures reach 17 or 18c in places, compared with 14 or 15c WW and where there will be further mostly light rain and drizzle on and off. The Midlands not immune from the odd spit of drizzle either, and quite a fresh SW wind on Thursday too. Mild and quite windy for Thursday night, further rain at time especially WW, not getting below 12c for most places. [/size]

[size=4]A cold front sinking SE may well develop a wave during Friday across southern Britain, and so stalling its progress, there is then potential that some areas see a thoroughly wet day, but hard to say exactly where, and no doubt some of us miss the worst of this (if it happens). Uncertainties as usual for next weekend although signals suggest further rain in places on Saturday, with Sunday having the better chance for dry weather, temperatures at least up to average. Some of the models are going for high pressure and a dry end to October, this far from conclusive however![/size]
[size=4][attachment=227415:PPVG89 breezy light showers Mo.png][attachment=227416:PPVI89 Gonzalo Mo night.png][attachment=227417:Recm482 Gonzalo wind rain Mo night.gif][attachment=227418:h850t850eu Gonzalo mon night.png][attachment=227419:h850t850eu cool showers Tu.png][attachment=227420:Recm962 m dry bright WEd.gif][attachment=227421:h850t850eu m dry bright dr later WW.png][attachment=227422:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227423:metslp.120 developing wave FR potentially wet.png][attachment=227424:Recm1442 potentially wet spell FR.gif][attachment=227425:Recm1682 changeable weekend.gif][attachment=227426:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227427:t850Warwickshire mild week bar cool blip Tu.png][attachment=227428:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]
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