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Weather guide Monday 6th to Sunday 12th October 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain; becoming mild[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Past week/ month highlights:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Warmth last Sunday, Pershore 22.9c, Coleshill 22.8c, with most parts just above 20c, and then Coleshill the warmest spot in the UK Monday 21.5c max.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Last Monday saw some showery rain about, especially the Cardigan Bay area, 11.4mm falling at Trawsgoed inland from Aberystwyth compared to just 1.4mm Aberporth & 1mm Llanwnnen, while parts of the West and North Midlands caught an early evening thunderstorm, most places then had very little if any rain again though until Friday or Saturday.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Surprising to record the Season's first air frost on Wednesday night here with a pre dawn low of -0.3c in our Llanwnnen garden! Nowhere else in Wales or the Midlands seems to have got this low, Trawsgoed the nearest at min 1.5c. However the generally warm weather lasted to Friday with some places still managing to get above above 20c. An active cold front introduced Autumnal conditions of heavy rain and strong winds on Friday night into Saturday, West Wales getting more rain in just 6 hours than in the whole of September! Anglesey was especially wet on Friday night, 24 hour totals at Valley 58.4mm and RAF Mona 56.8mm. Clearing skies last (Saturday) night saw a local touch of frost. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]September[/b] was very dry and warm everywhere. Quite a sunny month for West Wales but below average sunshine for the Midlands. It was the driest September since 1959 generally, in the Lampeter area it was drier than any September found in the local long term record back to the late 1800's, and the driest of any month for at least 12 years (April 2007 14.4mm). Some monthly totals with approx % of average:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 9.4mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawsgoed 13.6mm 14%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Aberporth 13.0mm 18%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pembrey Sands 10.6mm 13%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mona, Anglesey 14.0mm 20%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake 4.8mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill, Warks 5.2mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford, Warks 5.2mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 7.1mm 14% [/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Little Rissington, Glos 6.4mm 8%[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Sunday sees hazy sunny intervals, just the odd light shower over Wales but many places have a dry, bright day. Temperatures close to the early October average reaching 14 to 16c, the breeze freshens over West Wales (WW) in particular later this afternoon. As Atlantic fronts approach a strong southerly develops over WW this evening gusting gale force (>40mph) and with heavy rain arriving around midnight too. A wet, very windy night then for the Principality, 60mph gusts for exposed coasts and hills may bring a few trees down, even lowland inland gusts of 50mph may occur. Windy with locally gale force gusts for the Midlands too tonight the rain arriving by dawn. A wet and windy morning for the Midlands on Monday, chilly too, whilst the rain should have cleared WW by mid morning leaving only a scattering of showers for the afternoon, some heavy with hail perhaps, and much lighter winds. The rain should clear the West Midlands by mid afternoon leaving a bright, dry end to the day but may linger longer over the East Midlands, and as a consequence a very cool day here, no higher than 11c if it stays wet, compared with 14 or 15c for brighter Wales and the West Midlands. Showers may be turning more frequent with local hail and thunder during Monday evening into the night over WW, but a mostly dry night Midlands. With a deep low pressure sinking west of ireland Tuesday looks another unsettled day, showers, perhaps longer spells of rain, especially for WW, again the risk of hail and thunder, some very heavy downpours knocking about. Some showers also affecting the Midlands, but with shelter from the keen SW breeze a better chance of a dry, bright day here. Highs Tuesday in the 13 to 15c range, mildest Midlands. Showers should become restricted to western coasts and hills on Tuesday night, a cool one 3c locally with a grass frost risk.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep slow-moving low still close to Ireland on Wednesday, so further showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places, even the Midlands rather wet at times too, and generally a lot of cloud. A strengthening SSW wind may be gusting gale force over Wales by Wednesday evening. Maxima ranging from 14 or 15c WW to a mild 17 or 18c South Midlands. Rain or showers keep going for WW on Wednesday night driven by the strong SW wind, while only a few showers reach the Midlands, a mild night not lower than 9 or 10c. The low still there over Ireland Thursday too, but it starts to edge away northwards. More showers then, even a longer spell of rain, and rather windy, although parts of the Midlands may escape and see some decent sunny intervals. Mild again, highs 15 to 18c, latter East Midlands. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Low pressure should be filling up over Scotland by Friday, essentially a showery day, but with lighter winds and sunny intervals, with parts of the Midlands having a dry, bright and quite warm day. Maxima Friday 14 to 16c WW, but as high as 19c Midlands. An outside chance that another low develops to our SW on Friday and drags even warmer, humid air across the Midlands in particular through, but in this scenario WW could see a spell of wet weather and not benefit. Saturday looks another unsettled showery day and a touch cooler, but pressure is on the rise next weekend and Sunday may be mostly dry with sunny spells and light winds, if rather cool... we shall see![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=226338:PPVG89 Mo wet Mids few sh WW cool.png][attachment=226339:PPVJ89 showery perhaps TH Tue esp WW.png][attachment=226340:ecmt850.024 wet v windy Su night WW.png][attachment=226341:ecmt850.072 heavy sh Tu.png][attachment=226342:PPVM89 showers lsr windy Wed.png][attachment=226343:ecmt850.096 showers lsr r windy Wed.png][attachment=226344:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=226345:ecmt850.144 fewer sh FR.png][attachment=226346:ecmt850.168 drying cooler weekend.png][attachment=226347:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire rain daily.png][attachment=226348:prmslWest~Midlands low all week R poss SU.png][attachment=226349:t850West~Midlands mild from mid week.png][attachment=226350:mgram_Birmingham unsettled week becoming mild.png][/font][/color]
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