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Weather guide Tuesday 2nd to Monday 8th September 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, especially in the west; possibly less settled next weekend for Wales in particular[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]A wet Bank Holiday Monday especially for the Midlands - however much of Cardigan Bay escaped with just a little rain and drizzle, wettest places that day were Capel Curig 29.4mm, Little Rissington 27mm, Long Lawford 24.8mm and nearby Church Lawford 22.2mm. There was some showery rain at times last week after the washout BH but thereafter totals generally quite low, apart from (as so often the case) Snowdonia where orographic (hill forced) rain fell quite heavily last Friday giving 28mm. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]A very cool Bank Holiday too across much of the Midlands and NW Wales, highs last Monday just 14c at Nottingham and not much above 15c eleswhere across the Midlands. The really cool weather eased by mid week, by Tuesday parts of SW Wales were a rather warm 20 or 21c the highest for a fortnight or so, Pembrey Sands was warmest spot in the UK at 21.1c max. No day reached 19c (late August average) here at Llanwnnen from 12th to 28th so a most prolonged spell of cool weather, with Thursday finally breaking average at max 19.5c, and then yesterday (Sunday) 20c was breached for the first time in 3 weeks! Capel Curig did not see 20c at all in August so a very poor show for Snowdonia.[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]August was a cool, rather wet month almost everywhere, some rainfall data:[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Llanwnnen 143.3mm (130%)[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Aberporth 105.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Llanelli 145.8mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][url="http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICARMART4"]http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICARMART4[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Pembrey Sands 125.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Hereford 84.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Little Rissington 98.8mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Coleshill 89.6mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][url="http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html"]http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Coventry approx 81mm [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Long Lawford 86.7mm (125%)[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]August certainly cooled down the decent Summer of 2014 which has ended up only slightly warmer than average, and with rainfall around average, except locally where downpours have made it rather wet overall. For parts of West Wales including here at Llanwnnen rainfall was below average this Summer, we had a June to August total of only 236.4mm (85%) compared with 198.2mm (115%) at Long Lawford, Warwickshire [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Sunday was a lovely day with plentiful sunshine, and much of the coming week will be dry and warm with reasonably sunny weather at times, although some days may prove more cloudy affairs, for the East Midlands in particular. A weak front has brought further small amounts of rain overnight and during Monday, from fronts associated with former Hurricane Cristobal which recently crossed Iceland as a deep low. For most of the coming week we are under the influence of high pressure and hence the predominantly dry theme but perhaps with variable sunshine depending on wind flows and positioning of the highs. Overall I would expect West Wales (WW) to fare best for warmth and sunshine in the coming week, the East Midlands perhaps plagued by North Sea cloud at times as we will be seeing east or NE winds featuring quite a bit. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Monday afternoon has seen the drizzle and rain clearing the Midlands, with sunny spells for WW and eventually parts of the Midlands. Highs have been near the early September normal reaching the upper teens (17 to 20c) generally. High pressure is over us tonight so dry with clear periods and chilly lows widely below 10c and just 5c in parts of Mid Wales, after tonight the nights this week are looking milder at mainly 10 to 14c min though. Variable cloud and sunny spells on Tuesday, the East Midlands perhaps more troubled by cloud, highs for most at 20 to 22c, rather warm. High pressure over Scandinavia with more of an ESE flow Wednesday promises greater amounts of warm sunshine for all, a lovely day highs 21 to 24c with gentle breezes. Similar prospects for Thursday too, a light ESE flow off the Continent so decent sunny spells and warmth, maxima in the 21 to 25c range, decidedly warm for September. Some good opportunities for a late Season trip to the beach this week! [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Friday, and the high pressure relinquishing its grip a little, so with the threat that some of us could catch a sharp shower or two, most likely over the Wesh hills, but in general another fine early Autumn day, decent sunny spells and warm again at 21 to 25c. A chance though of the NE breeze dragging cloud across the East Midlands so perhaps rather cooler here on Friday? Next weekend and a new high is close to Scotland so the mostly dry weather continues. Perhaps more keen an easterly breeze over the weekend but with sunny spells feeling quite warm nonetheless, maxima between 18 and 21c, perhaps best in the west and cooler for the East Midlands, where cloud may be more prevalent. Nights too cooler, certainly falling below 10c and even down to 3 or 4c locally, quite close to a ground frost. A minority of the modelled outcomes of late suggest it turns less settled as we go through the weekend, but the likelihood is of quite a fine weekend and indeed start to the following week, with any rain or showers likely to be restricted to Wales.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][attachment=223411:PPVG89 m dry variable cloud rw Tu.png][attachment=223412:PPVJ89 warm SP.png][attachment=223413:ecmt850.048 warm SS TU WE.png][attachment=223419:h850t850eu warm SP widely We.png][attachment=223414:PPVL89 warm SS Th.png][attachment=223415:ecmt850.096 warm SS Th.png][attachment=223416:metslp.120 H changeover days m dry warm.png][attachment=223418:PPVO89 m dry isolated sh warm Fr.png][attachment=223417:ecmt850.144 m dry warm weekend.png][attachment=223420:prmslWarwickshire H likely all week poss lower Weekend.png][attachment=223421:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][attachment=223422:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion less settled weekend WW.png][attachment=223423:prcpWarwickshire chance less settled SU MO.png][attachment=223424:mgram_Birmingham dry warm week.png][/size][/font][/color]

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