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Weather guide Monday 25th to Sunday 31st August 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b][font=arial]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times (especially Monday); near average temperatures but some cool weather still[/font][/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A notable and unusually cool spell of weather over the past week or so, 'Autumnal' being a most apt adjective. [/font]Here at Llanwnnen the highest reading since a week Saturday a poor 17.2c (Sunday 17th), while the average maxima since Wednesday 13th August (12 days) is just 16.4c and unprecedented here for August in my albeit short record (11 years), with no day getting above 18c. Three successive days failed to reach 16c at Llanwnnen - again an almost unprecedented occurrence at this time of year, poor Capel Curig never getting higher than 16c all week! The week started not as cool though for the Midlands in particular, close on 20c recorded on Monday at Church Lawford on Monday, thereafter all downhill! Coventry has not been above 17c since last Monday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some of the more notable cool maximum temperatures of last week: Aberporth 14.4c and Llanwnnen 15.2c on Tuesday, Sennybridge (Powys) 13.8c, Capel Curig (Snowdonia) 14.0c, Little Rissington (Cotswolds) 15.2c and Llanwnnen 15.2c all Wednesday then the lowest just 13.3c (56f) the 'high' on Thursday at Capel Curig. Nights were chilly too, especially from mid week, some of the lowest readings being: Sennybridge 3.6c on Tuesday night; Llanwnnen 2.6c (with an unseasonable touch of grass frost), Hereford 3.4c, Pembrey Sands 4.2c, Little Rissington 5.3c all on Wednesday night; Pembrey Sands 3.6c Friday night; then last night Capel Curig 3.7c, Sennybridge 3.8c, Pershore 3.9c (with a ground frost) Mona & Pembrey Sands 4.3c. This prolonged very cool spell means August will end up a cool month in spite of the warm start.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]At least the showers were well scattered and mostly quite light, most places getting at least a dry day or two last week, and rain totals for most were low, indeed some spots escaped with a virtually dry week. Coventry only having 1.0mm, Coleshill 1.0mm, Pembrey Sands 2.4mm, while Trawsgoed in contrast caught quite a few showers obtaining 30.8mm over the past week.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Sunday and it has clouded over across much of Wales but the Midlands has had a bright morning. A dry but increasingly cloudy afternoon for most, bar the odd isolated shower, but with rain gradually spreading into Pembrokeshire during this afternoon and the rest of West Wales (WW) early this evening. Another cool day, no higher than 17c for many but 19c for brighter parts of the East Midlands, so not feeling too bad here. Moderate winds for the most part on Sunday, but a freshening southerly for Wales this evening along with the rain. Rain and drizzle at times for all regions tonight, a milder one though. The deep low bringing this rain is situated close to SW Ireland on Monday with its rain fronts ahead of it, so a wet day for many especially in the south of our regions where over 25mm is possible in places, even 50mm for a few spots, perhaps in the Cotswolds, which may cause flooding. Quite windy too on Monday and very cool with all the cloud and rain, highs no better than 18c, and even 15c for wetter spots of the Midlands. Further showers or longer spells of rain for Monday night as the low crosses southern England. Still a trough left over the SE on Tuesday so another unsettled day, rain or showers knocking about, more specially for the Midlands, probably mostly dry with some sunny intervals later for WW. Temperatures closer to the late August average at 18 to 20c. A weak high east of Scotland tries to dry things out on Wednesday, sunny spells and mainly dry for a time,but the next front may be bringing some further showery rain into much of Wales and the SW Midlands through the afternoon, that it clouds over means rather disappointing temperatures 18c for WW and but perhaps 21c for the East Midlands with brightness. LIght to moderate SE breezes on Wednesday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A shallow low or trough seems likely to be crossing over us Thursday so another rather unsettled day threatens some further rain or showers in places. Rather cool 18c for WW and a more respectable 20c for the Midlands on Thursday afternoon. [/font]Friday and Saturday see a continuation of the unsettled weather so more rain or showers at times, some places getting more than others, there should be some sunny intervals too during which it will not feel too bad. The models were showing some promise of drier and warmer conditions next weekend, however this signal now seems to be faltering, so even Sunday may be seeing showers or longer spells of rain knocking about too? [/font][/color]

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