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Weather guide Monday 11th to Sunday 17th August 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often cool and showery, some sunny spells, windy at first; perhaps mostly dry and becoming warmer Friday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The worst of the rain and showers held off last week, so most places ending up with a reasonably dry, bright and warm week. Some exceptions as always, on Monday and Tuesday some places caught downpours with thunder but these few and far between, then a wet Tuesday night, Valley on Anglesey getting 43mm rain in less than 12 hours. The nights were cool at times last week, readings of around 7c in rural areas, Shobdon, Herefordshire getting down to 6.5c last Sunday night, and then just 5.1c at Sennybridge Thursday night, and here at Llanwnnen 6.8c the low first thing Friday. Temperatures in the average to warm category (low 20s celcius) for the most part last week, but without any especially high temperatures, the highest I have seen being 24.2c at Church Lawford on Thursday, then Friday with 24.6c Llanwnnen, 24.8c Coleshill and 25.7c Wellesbourne, Warwickshire which was the warmest spot in the UK. The warmth on Friday set off further thundery showers and storms over the East Midlands, Nottingham getting flooding - 2014 has been a very thundery year![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some heavy rain and thunderstorms in places this morning associated with the remnants of ex- hurricane Bertha that are presently crossing Wales and England. Indeed some parts of England in particular at risk of severe thunderstorms, even tornadoes today, such is the input of energy and mixing of differential wind and temperatures within this system. The rain has already cleared this Sunday morning to sunny intervals and showers across West Wales (WW) while the rain continues into early afternoon for the Midlands, as said, with a risk of thunderstorms here. Highs Sunday afternoon in the 17 to 21c range, and it will turn quite windy as we go through this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms die out this evening to leave a largely dry and quite cool night but a breezy one, some showers still affecting Welsh coastal districts though.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep low that was Bertha sticks between NE Scotland and Scandinavia through the first half of this coming week, about which blow showery and cool west or NW winds. A similar pattern then through to at least Wednesday or Thursday, basically one of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy, and even a longer spell of rain may be in the offing, more especially perhaps during Tuesday. There will also be hail and thunder in the showers in places. Temperatures on Monday near normal at 18 to 21c so not feeling bad out of the wind in any sunny breaks, but Tuesday through to Thursday are decidedly cool Summer days, we will be lucky to see 20c and even cooler for NW Wales in particular where some days may well not exceed just 16c (61f) - poor indeed for August! Nights rather cool too in this first half of the week at somewhere around the 10c mark. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but even the end of the week looks essentially cool and showery, the NW breeze less of an issue by this stage, so perhaps not feeling all that bad in the sunny spells. Maxima on Thursday and Friday cool in the 16 to 20c range still, best for the East Midlands. With the lighter winds by the end of the week and given clearing overnight skies, some decidedly cool late Summer nights can be expected, down to just 4 or 5c perhaps in rural locations, though nearer 8 to 10c for cities and coasts. Showers should become fewer and farther between on Friday and with some decent sunny spells by this stage as a ridge approaches from the west.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Our ridge looking a temporary affair next weekend although we may get away with a dry, bright and rather warm Saturday, low 20s celsius over the Midlands. By Sunday though there may be showers about once more although at least temperatures should stay reasonably warm. Looking further ahead out towards the end of August (and Summer 2014) and the models have a rather unsettled and not so hot look about them - although that could still alter for the better![/font][/color]
[attachment=221390:PPVE89 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221391:ecmt850.024 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221392:PPVG89 windy showery MO.png][attachment=221394:PPVJ89 r windy showery poss lsr TU.png][attachment=221399:h850t850eu showers lsr TU.png][attachment=221395:ecmt850.072 r cool showery perhaps lsr TU WE.png][attachment=221398:h850t850eu cool showery WE.png][attachment=221396:PPVO89 cool showers less windy TH.png][attachment=221397:ecmt850.120 r cool showery TH FR less windy.png][attachment=221400:ecmt850.168 brief R Sat more showers Su but warmer.png][attachment=221402:h850t850eu fine Sat turning unsettled Sun warmer.png][attachment=221403:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=221404:prmslWarwickshire R WEND.png][attachment=221405:t850Warwickshire r cool all week.png][attachment=221406:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png]
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