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Weather guide Monday 28th July to Sunday 3rd August 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Fairly dry and quite warm with sunny spells; unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mostly dry and very warm then hot last week. The highest temperature readings of the year occurring between Wednesday and Saturday which you could call a 'heatwave' with highest station readings being 27.9c at Valley, Anglesey and 27.3c MIlford Haven, Pembrokeshire on Wednesday, 29.5c at Llanelli (personal weather station PWS), 29.3c Porthmadog and 28.8c Wellesbourne all on Thursday, 26.7c Little Rissington on both Thursday and Friday, 29.5c here in my garden on Friday, finally Saturday 28.5c Coleshill, 28.3c Church Lawford and 27.8c Coventry. Porthmadog in North Wales attained 29c each of the 3 days Wed to Fri and was one of the UK hotspots for the week. Some warm nights too, Mumbles, near Swansea only fell to 19.7c on Wednesday night, and no night read lower than 18c from Wednesday to Friday, for most of us inland however a more tolerable 12 to 15c by night. Hardly any rain last week, some places essentially bone dry all week, and needless to say sunshine was plentiful - all in all a wonderful week's weather! Back to more typical Summer fayre for the coming week, with temperatures closer to average, but often rather warm, and some, generally small amounts of rain. Turning more decidely unsettled by the weekend, but all in all this good Summer continues largely unscathed.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A weak cold front changed our air mass to a cooler, fresher Atlantic one overnight. Sunday then is a bright and breezy day, mostly dry but a few showers especially by this evening and over Wales. Much cooler than of late, but still pleasantly warm over the Midlands at 22 or 23c, but down to a more average 19 or 20c for West Wales. The breeze is moderate to fresh from the NW. Further showery rain in places tonight, again more especially for Wales as some fronts move down in the flow, an easier night for sleep with lows of 11 to 13c. Messy charts for Monday with various weak weather fronts and a ridge vying for supremacy. What does this mean in terms of Monday's weather? It should be generally dry and quite warm with sunny spells and a scattering of showers, these may be heavy in places. Maxima between 21 and 24c so not a bad day if you dodge the showers! The ridge wins out eventually and it is a dry night, lows of 11 to 13c again. Another weak frontal system slowly tracks SE across Wales and England on Tuesday, so some rain for Wales in particular for a time on Tuesday, but tending to die out as it reaches the Midlands and where it should be reduced to just cloud and the odd shower later in the day. Before this warm sunny spells for the Midlands and it may reach 25c in places and feeling quite humid, with more cloud its cooler for West Wales (WW) though nearer 19c, perhaps 21c should the cloud clear by late afternoon? Light winds. Dry and not too warm on Tuesday night, minima 11 to 13c. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A bit of a ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday, so again plenty of dry weather with sunny spells, just the outside risk of a shower here and there. Decent sunny spells too on Wednesday so it turns out rather warm again highs around 21c for West Wales and 24c over the Midlands. It could be quite a fresh night lows down below 10c inland. Relatively high pressure may well hang on for Thursday too over the south, so another mostly dry and quite warm day with sunny spells in prospect. However a trough is gradually encroaching from the north threatening showery rain later in the day. Highs Thursday in the 20 to 24c bracket, probably best over the Midlands with the light west breeze cooling coasts. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]By Friday and over the weekend its looks as though it will be turning more definitely unsettled as a low sinks over Ireland or northern Britain. This solution not unanimous however, with the depth of the low unsure, and as there may be influence from heat building over the Continent once more? All in all then, Friday and the weekend turns more unsettled, so some rain or showers about, no washout, and as usual some areas escape relatively dry and even bright. Some of the showers will though be heavy and thundery. Highs somewhere in the 20 to 25c range, warmest over the Midlands.[/font][/color]
[attachment=219941:ecmt850.024 (1) showers tonight.png][attachment=219940:PPVG89 messy MOn.png][attachment=219942:PPVJ89 wk front little rain WW warm Mids TU.png][attachment=219943:ecmt850.072 warm MIds TU.png][attachment=219944:PPVL89 m dry R Wed.png][attachment=219945:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=219946:metslp.120 just about dry TH.png][attachment=219947:ecmt850.120 m dry rw TH showers by night.png][attachment=219948:ecmt850.144 showery quite warm FR.png][attachment=219949:ecmt850.168 slack unsettled rw weekend.png][attachment=219950:h850t850eu more unsettled but warm weekend.png][attachment=219951:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219952:prmslWest~Midlands unsettled from FR.png][attachment=219953:t850West~Midlands rw week.png][attachment=219954:mgram_Birmingham rw week unsettled weekend.png]

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