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Weather guide Monday 30th June to Sunday 6th July 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, very warm even by Thursday/ Friday; unsettled and cooler weekend[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty of rather warm, dry and bright weather last week, although it turned more unsettled during Thursday with the first real rain for a fortnight or so for many places. 23.4c Llanwnnen on Wednesday made it the warmest day so far this year. Other high readings include 24.7c Hereford, 24.1c Church Lawford, 23.7c Little Rissington, 24.4c Mumbles and 23.5c Pembrey Sands all on Monday, these although warm are unremarkable readings for Summer. Heavy showers for most on Friday and thunderstorms for some, these gave over an inch of rain to parts of the Midlands, the highest total being 28.2mm at Market Bosworth, Leicestershire, with Long Lawford, Warwickshire having 35.4mm in the 36 hours to Saturday morning. This enough to turn what was looking like quite a dry June into a wet one, West Wales has still managed a reasonably dry month however. Some more localised downpours in places on Saturday, Swyddffynnon, Ceredigion caught 28.4mm while places just a few miles away saw very little rain. Saturday was a cool day for the Midlands, Coleshill and Coventry only managed 16c due to persistent cloud.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some dry and warm weather for much of the coming week again, very warm even later in the week with the Summer's first 80f possible by Friday for the Midlands! Signals of a more unsetttled and cooler weekend however. Sunday afternoon is largely dry with sunny spells, just a scattering of showers over the Midlands, temperatures reaching a pleasant 19 to 21c. Clear periods and a cool night, some rural spots down to 5c or so, but nearer 10c for coasts and cities. Although a low system is passing to our SW during Monday the rain should avoid us only really making it into Cornwall and Devon. Another mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells, again a few showers developing but most places remain essentially dry. Highs 19 to 22c about average for the last day of June. Slack pressure on Tuesday and again largely dry with spells of warm sunshine and light winds, the odd sharp shower for a few spots. Highs on Tuesday 20 to 23c. Dry with decent sunny spells again for Wednesday with a ridge over southern UK and probably a touch warmer, highs 22 to 25c quite likely, so a warm day. As with previous nights it cools pleasantly down to minima of 8 to 12c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep low is situated near Iceland on Thursday but with high pressure still close to our SW it looks largely dry and warm again with sunny periods. This could be the warmest day of the week, indeed the year so far, highs for most in the 23 to 26c range, cooler for western coasts. The dry and warm, even very warm weather may hold on for Friday too, GFS showing 28c maxima over the Midlands but it may not end up quite so hot and with a westerly drift of air Cardigan Bay pleasantly cooler. Mostly dry but the warmth setting off a scattering of heavy showers or thunderstorms, particularly for the Midlands. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A trough looks set to spoil next weekend somewhat although to what extent the weather deteriorates is questionnable. However a fall in pressure is likely by Saturday and weather fronts look set to bring spells of rain to be followed by showers for Sunday when it will be noticeably cooler. Not all models show an especially poor weekend though and some recent GFS model runs keep it quite warm and with not so much in the way of rain.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217594:PPVG89 m dry ss.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217595:PPVJ89 m dry RW Tu.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217596:ecmt850.072 m dry RW TU WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217597:h850t850eu warm ss WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217598:PPVO89 dry warm TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217599:h850t850eu warm dry TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217600:ecmt850.144 TH FR m dry v warm potential.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217601:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217602:h850t850eu cooling weekend but little rain.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217603:prcpWarwickshire m dry week until weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217604:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217605:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]


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And the GFS runs seem correct for today = sunny quite warm

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