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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 16 (Final) Issued 25 June

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J10

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So today the gates opened on Glastonbury, and we are finally here at the Final Blog for Glastonbury.

Today looks a bit better than predicted for Glastonbury, with more in the way of sunny spells, than recently suggested.

I'll now split the forecast into the next 48hrs, which is the range of the higher details models and then the remainder of the forecast.

[b]Synoptic Summary[/b]

As the main focus in now on the day to day detail, I was firstly summarise the Synoptic position. Low Pressure to the west of Ireland Early Thursday, will push eastwards, and a front ahead of it will bring some rain on Thursday for SW England.

By Friday the centre of the Low Pressure (1010mb) will move eastwards along Southern Britain only finally clearing Eastern Britain later in the day, and as such Friday will be very unsettled with some heavy showers. Even though the centre of the Low will be away to the continent over the weekend, pressure will still be low over the UK, below 1015mb until Late Sunday, and as such it will remain unsettled with further heavy showers, by Sunday evening, Higher Pressure (above 1015mb) will have nudged into Western UK, and the showery potential will steadily decrease later on Sunday.

[attachment=217316:GFS 24.png] [attachment=217315:GFS 36.png] [attachment=217319:GFS 48.png]
[attachment=217317:UKMO 25 -28 00.png] [attachment=217314:UKMO 25 - 28 12.png]
[attachment=217318:UKMO 25 - 29 00.png] [attachment=217313:UKMO 25 - 29 12.png]

[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
Tomorrow is expected to start on a dry note, with some sunny spells likely in the morning and early afternoon, however cloud is likely to edge in from the South West from early afternoon onward, with rain likely from about mid afternoon most likely around 3pm. Some moderate pulses of rain are expected until around about 9pm when it clears away to the North East. Total rainfall is expected to be around 5-8mm according to the latest UKMO4 run, however even now there is a degree with much heavier rain not that far away.

[attachment=217304:UKMO4 06 T+33.gif] [attachment=217303:UKMO4 06 T+36.gif] [attachment=217302:UKMO4 06 T+39.gif]

[attachment=217310:UKMO4 12 T+24.gif] [attachment=217309:UKMO4 12 T+27.gif] [attachment=217308:UKMO4 T+30.gif] [attachment=217307:UKMO4 T+33.gif]

[b]Friday 27th[/b]
There is likely to be a dry period after the initial rain band edges through, currently this is forecast to cover the early hours of Friday and into Friday morning. However as the day progresses some heavy showers are likely to develop, and these may be prolonged, with the chance of thunder, and the increasing possibility of muddy conditions. The showers are likely to continue through the day and into the early evening. As ever with showers, they are hit and miss, and as such rainfall amounts are difficult to predict, but a washout is possible.

[attachment=217301:UKMO 06 T+42.gif] [attachment=217300:UKMO 06 T+45.gif] [attachment=217299:UKMO4 06 T+48.gif]
[attachment=217306:UKMO4 12 T+36.gif] [attachment=217305:UKMO4 T+42.gif] [attachment=217311:UKMO4 12 T+45.gif] [attachment=217312:UKMO4 12 T+48.gif]

[attachment=217276:GFS 25 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

[b]Saturday 28th[/b]

[attachment=217275:GFS 25 June to 28 June 12Hz 00.JPG] [attachment=217274:GFS 25 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=217269:GFS 25 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217268:GFS 25 June to 28 June 06Hz 00.JPG]

After a dry overnight period, it seems likely that showers will get going quite quickly during the morning, and continue into the afternoon and at least the first part of the evening, some of these are likely to be heavy with the chance of some thunder, but as usual it is a case of hit or miss for Glastonbury. The showers are likely to decline in number as we move into the evening, and another mostly dry overnight period is likely.

[b]Sunday 29th[/b]

[attachment=217270:GFS 25 June to 29 June 06Hz 00.JPG] [attachment=217271:GFS 25 June to 29 June 06Hz 12.JPG] [attachment=217272:GFS 25 June to 29 June 12Hz 12.JPG] [attachment=217273:GFS 25 June to 29 June 12Hz 00.JPG]

For Sunday, showers are again likely to develop late morning and for the afternoon, before fading again once again for the evening. However as pressure slowly increases from the west, the showers are likely to be less frequent and generally not as heavy as for the previous 2 days.

[b]Summary[/b]

It now seems likely that the rain will arrive some time Tomorrow afternoon, after a bright start tomorrow. For both Friday and Saturday,, there are likely to be daytime showers, which are likely to be heavy and cause the distinct possibility of mud issues on site, the amount of mud issues, largely come down to luck about how badly the showers hit Glastonbury, of course the groundwork on site over recent years should help somewhat. Further showers are likely on Sunday, but these should be lighter and less frequent than previous days.

This concludes my final blog, I hope everyone at Glastonbury has a great time. Fingers Crossed for good weather luck.

[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]

Any further comments will be in the main thread.
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