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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 15 Issued 23 June

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J10

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So all of a sudden it is two days to go before the gates open at Glastonbury 2014, do we finally have an idea of the weather for the festival. The general theme is sorted to an extent, a decent day Wednesday with the remnants the settled spell before getting worse Thursday/Friday, and possibly improving again over the weekend. However even the above summary give a large scope of variation for the detailed ground conditions at Glastonbury.

[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath

Onto the daily forecasts

[b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]

Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.

For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly. (Pretty much the same summary as for the last few days)

Some brightness / Sunny spells are possible, but in general there is likely to be a good deal of cloud cover, temps high teens low 20s, feeling warm in any sunny spells.

[b]GFS[/b]

[attachment=217081:GFS 23 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217090:GFS 23 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]

[attachment=217099:ECM 23 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

[b]Thursday 26th[/b]
Synoptically there is good agreement that by 12 noon, there will Low Pressure of around 1010mb to the west of the UK, with pressure of around 1015mb for the south coast of England and 1020mb for Northern Scotland. The UKMO runs yesterdays were a bit progressive in pushing Low Pressure over the UK. As such the UKMO model has less rainfall over Glastonbury than yesterday suggested. GFS 06Hz suggests moderate rain on Thursday, but the other models also tend to reduce the rainfall for Thursday daytime.

However Thursday evening is expected to see some rainfall for Glastonbury edge in from the West/ South west, with spme agreement on this between the models.

[b]GFS[/b]
[attachment=217082:GFS 23 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217089:GFS 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]

[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
[attachment=217102:UKMO From 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217112:UKMO from 23 June to 26 June.png]
[attachment=217098:ECM 23 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217124:ECM 23 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Friday 27th[/b]

For Friday, the low pressure is set to the South west of the Uk overnight and move eastwards to be centred over southern England by mid afternoon. as such Friday is set to be unsettled. The current most likely outcome is for frontal rainfall to edge in from the south west overnight, the intensity of this rainfall varies from light and patchy (ECMO) to heavy (GFS) with heavy showery rainfall (UKMO) It seems likely that for the rest of the day there is the potential for further heavy outbreaks of rain, but with some drier slots in between.

GFS

[attachment=217083:GFS 23 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217088:GFS 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO/ECM
[attachment=217101:UKMO From 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217111:UKMO from 23 June to 27 June.png]
[attachment=217097:ECM 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217109:ECM Ens 23 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217123:ECM 23 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Saturday 28th[/b]

The current trend is for the core of the low pressure to move away into the continent for Saturday, however pressure over the UK is set to be low around 1015mb for southern UK, and with an Easterly wind, there is the potential for further showery outbreaks of rain after a fairly dry overnight period. The heaviest of the showers likely to be during the afternoon, perhaps easing off into the evening as pressure nudges in from the west.
GFS
[attachment=217084:GFS 23 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217087:GFS 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO/ECM
[attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=217110:UKMO from 23 June to 28 June.png]
[attachment=217096:ECM 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217122:ECM 23 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]
[attachment=217100:UKMO From 23 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif]
[b]Sunday 29th[/b]

Pressure is slowly set to build from the west, but not as quickly as some runs yesterday tries to indicate. so with still fairly lowish presure , there is further potential for sowers, but these are not likely to be widespread or as heavy as those on Saturday, so hopefully a decent end to the festival, and hopefully some sunshine.

GFS

[attachment=217085:GFS 23 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=217086:GFS 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO / ECM
[attachment=217126:UKMO From 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=217095:ECM 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217107:ECM Ens 23 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217125:ECM 23 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

Both sets of ensembles sees pressure drop during the festival, moreso for the 12H z to around 1010mb, and then rise slowly over the weekend. The ensembles indicate a dry Wednesday and daytime Thursday, but with some rain likely on Friday and over the weekend. The 12Hz run is worse for rainfall amounts. Temps OK to start but cool by Friday and for the weekend.
[attachment=217092:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217093:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=217094:Ensemble Temps 23 June 06Hz.png]

[attachment=217117:Ensemble Rainfall 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217118:Ensemble Pressure 23 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217116:Ensemble Temps 23 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Summary[/b]

A few changes from yesterday, Thursday looks drier than yesterday suggested to give 2 dry days to start, but Friday looks a bit wetter, and there is greater potential for some showers over the weekend.

Definitely pack your wellies, for Friday and perhaps the weekend, and also your sunscreen, which might also be needed over the weekend.

On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6, and if anything uncertainty about the weather is greater than yesterday.

[b]The final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]

[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]
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