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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 15 Issued 22 June

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J10

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This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.

[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 14 (21 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dustbowl 10 = Mudbath

[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]

Decent agreement between all operational runs, that the High Pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North East of the UK with pressure just below 1020mb over the UK.

For the runs focussing on midday, lower pressure edging closer to the UK from the west, but looking mostly dry for Wednesday for Glastonbury, perhaps the odd shower at worst. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly.

GFS

[attachment=216966:GFS 22 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216975:GFS 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO / ECM

[attachment=216991:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216979:UKMO From 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216996:ECM 22 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217001:ECM 22 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Thursday 26th[/b]

A general agreement in the pattern with Low Pressure to the North West of the Uk at Midnight moving South Westwards across the UK to be centred over South Western UK later in the day, perhaps the UKMO run is a bit more progressive in bringing the Low Pressure in quicker than the other runs. So if the UKMO run is correct moderate to heavy rain is likely over Glastonbury on Thursday through the evening slowly lessening in intensity, otter models have the rain edging in later. With the GFS 12hz keeping things mostly dry.

GFS

[attachment=216967:GFS 22 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216974:GFS 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO / ECM
[attachment=216990:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216978:UKMO From 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216995:ECM 22 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217000:ECM 22 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Friday 27th[/b]

Fairly good agreement on the pressure pattern for Friday. With low pressure weather to the west of the Uk, or over the UK (centred over the south) in the UKMO case. The on the ground pattern is a bit clearer though, with low pressure and winds from the south west, showery outbreaks of rain seem likely, some of these could be heavy, but it is impossible to say if Glastonbury gets the worst of the showers.

GFS
[attachment=216968:GFS 22 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216973:GFS 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216989:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216977:UKMO From 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216994:ECM 22 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216999:ECM 22 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Saturday 28th[/b]

A bit more uncertainty again for Saturday, but it ECM/UKMO tends to show Low Pressure over the UK to start before edging away to the East later. The GFS 06Hz tends to agree with this but the GFS 12Hz run keeps the low pressure away out to the west. The most likely scenario is that the ECM/UKMO/GFs 06hz is correct and if so, then it is likely to be drier on Saturday than Thursday and Friday, with more in the way of brighter weather but given that pressure is still between 1015-1020mb, some showers cannot be ruled out.

GFS
[attachment=216969:GFS 22 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216972:GFS 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG]

UKMO/ECM
[attachment=216988:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.gif] [attachment=216976:UKMO From 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.gif]
[attachment=216993:ECM 22 June to 28 June 00Hz.png]] [attachment=216998:ECM 22 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Sunday 29th[/b]

No UKMO available for Sunday, but the both ECM runs try to build pressure giving some decent conditions. Ad does the GFS 06Zh run, the 12Hz keep the low pressure out west, with increased risk of some showers on S/SE winds for Glastonbury. However again the first option seems the most likely, so a mix of bright/sunny spells but some showers possible, but probable more scattered than on Saturday.

GFS

[attachment=216970:GFS 22 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216971:GFS 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

ECM

[attachment=216992:ECM 22 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=217002:ECM 22 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

ECM Rainfall Predictions

More on these here - > [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

Only the 12Hz run available today, the average pressure is always below 1020mb, and drops close to 1015mb by mid festival. But always a huge variety of outcomes, a large number of ensembles go for moderate rain over the festival weekend, while temps always on the cool side.

[attachment=216980:Ensemble Rainfall 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216981:Ensemble Pressure 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216982:Ensemble Temps 22 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Summary[/b]

After a seemingly dry start to the festival, it looks as if it will turn unsettled Thursday and Friday before progressively turning more settled and drier over the weekend.

So some moderate frontal rainfall on Thursday with some showers expected on Friday, this is likely to give some mud perhaps Thursday evening and into Friday, but unless the showery rainfall is heavy on Friday, ground conditions should be reasonable for the weekend, and at no time is a mud bath expected, even during/after the frontal rainfall.

So pack your wellies, but on a positive note also your sunscreen for the weekend especially Sunday. at the moment Wednesday is looking a bit cloudy.

On this basis I'll keep the rating at 6.

I know my forecast is out of kilter with those elsewhere, and hopefully I am wrong it would not be the first time. However the trend is currently in one direction.

[b]Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.[/b]
[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773[/url]
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