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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 13 Issued 20 June

J10

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This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.

Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

A slight change in the format, with an attempt to forecast by days of the festival as opposed to by model.

[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]

Decent Agreement that the High pressure will have weakened over the UK, with High Pressure of around 1024mb to the North and East of the UK and a ridge of High pressure of 1020mb over the UK. Winds likely to be fairly light North Easterly, so not exactly hot, mostly dry but perhaps the off shower possible. (ECM 12Hz not shown shows good agreement with the other runs). But overall a decent start to the festival.

[attachment=216785:GFS 29 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216790:UKMO From 20 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif] [attachment=216789:GFS 29 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216793:ECM 20 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

[b]Thursday 26th[/b]

The GFS keeps a fairly similar synoptic pattern of the Thursday, so similar weather mostly dry, UKMO is a bit different with low pressure over the UK, so rather unsettled and possibly quite wet. ECM 00Hz shows the unsettled weather starting to edge in, however the ECM 12Hz shows High Pressure hanging on of a sort, so things very much in the balance.
[attachment=216797:GFS 20 June to 26 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216798:GFS 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216799:UKMO From 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.gif][attachment=216801:ECM 20 June to 26 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216808:ECM 20 June to 26 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Friday 27th[/b]

The GFS again keeps a fairly similar synoptic pattern of the Wednesday/ Thursday while the ECM 12Hz tends to agree with this. ECM 00Hz shows unsettled weather from the South East, so quite wet, however signs of High Pressure starting to ridge back in ridge back in from the South West.

Good agreement from ECM 00Hz Ensembles of being rather unsettled, but a slight tailing off of the GFS ensembles with some runs going a bit more unsettled.

[attachment=216784:GFS 20 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216788:GFS 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216792:ECM 20 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216810:ECM 20 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Saturday 28th[/b]
Three completely different options available, GFS 06Hz continuing the theme of the start of the festival as does the ECM 12Hz run, GFS 12Hz turning things a bit more unsettled and ECM 00Hz, settling things down after a damp couple of days.
[attachment=216800:ECM 20 June to 28 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216802:GFS 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216803:GFS 20 June to 28 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216809:ECM 20 June to 28 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Sunday 29th[/b]

Both GFS have some sort of unsettled weather for the Sunday, while in contrast ECM brings High pressure in from the west and there should be decent / good conditions. While the ECM 12Hz run keeps things mostly settled.
[attachment=216791:ECM 20 June to 29 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216786:GFS 20 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216787:GFS 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216811:ECM 20 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

Pressure remaining around 1020mb on 6Hz, but dropping back by 12Hz. Some ensembles are rather damp but none overly wet, while the temps @850Hpa are around 5-7c, which is below average for the time of year.
[attachment=216794:Ensemble Temps 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216795:Ensemble Rainfall 20 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216796:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 06Hz.png]
[attachment=216806:Ensemble Temps 20 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216804:Ensemble Rainfall 20 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216805:Ensemble Pressure 20 June 12Hz.png]

[b]NOAA[/b]

The 6-10 day fun precisely covers the period of the forecast, and it probably is the most unsettled one for a while, with an upper trough over the UK.
[attachment=216807:500 HPA 19 June.gif]

[b]Summary[/b]

A decent start to the festival, ECM 00Hz as a short lived worsening, with GFS keeping things better, while ECM gets better over the weekend while GFS makes it worse. The ECM 12Hz is very notable in that is gives the opportunity for a mostly settled festival.

So many options are available, but the ECM 12Hz means there is a higher possibility of a mostly settled festival, than a mostly unsettled festival, , so while rather mixed, could be a lot worse.

The ECM 12Hz run improves the rating back to a 4.5, slightly better than even.

Future Runs will continue giving estimates for each day of the festival, the final blog will be on Wednesday, with further updates in the main thread if necessary.
[b]Links [/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]

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