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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 10 Issued 17 June

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J10

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This is the 10th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

[attachment=216591:Trendline to 16 June.JPG]
So in recent days a trend to an unsettled start to the festival, was it a new trend or maybe a blip.

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure centred to the west of the UK but covering the UK on the Sunday 22nd. By the Wednesday a battle ground with Low pressure to the north east and High pressure remaining to the west, some rain ending SW but Glastonbury probably remaining mostly dry during to its sheltered location. By the middle of the festival, High pressure ridging back from the SW, keeping things mostly settled. High pressure over the UK on the Sunday, but with one or to fronts trying to nudge in from the west, but not much rainfall for the south.

[attachment=216568:GFS 17 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216570:GFS 17 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216572:GFS 17 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216574:GFS 17 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure centred just to the west of the UK but covering the UK on the Sunday 22nd. This pretty much stays in situ until the start of the festival, with pressure circa 1024mb over Glastonbury on the Wednesday. However by the Friday with the pressure has weakened, with no pressure dominating increasing the chance of an odd shower, perhaps low pressure edging up from the South and East bringing some rain on the Sunday.

[attachment=216569:GFS 17 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216571:GFS 17 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216573:GFS 17 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216575:GFS 17 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

Overall a much drier outlook than yesterday.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

High Pressure dropping back to 1020mb but the 21st, and the average remaining there through the festival. A lot drier ensembles, some runs go for some rain for the festival weekend, but not as much as forecast yesterday by a long way. Average temps dropping to around 5c @850HPa for the start of the festival, rising back to around 8c by the end.

[attachment=216576:Ensemble Rainfall 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216577:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216578:Ensemble Temps 17 June 00Hz.png]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure dropping back to 1020mb but the 21st, rising back above for a few days, but remaining on 1020mb on average for the duration of the festival. Ensembles pretty good in terms of rainfall, again some runs go for some rain for the festival weekend, but not as much as forecast yesterday by a long way. Average temps around 7-8c @850Hpa for the festival.

[attachment=216586:Ensemble Rainfall 17 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216587:Ensemble Pressure 17 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216588:Ensemble Temps 17 June 12Hz.png]
[b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

An upper ridge to the west of the UK on the 6-10 run and closer to the UK for the 8-14 day run.

[attachment=216559:500 HPA 16 June.gif] [attachment=216560:500 HPA 16 June -10 day.gif]

NOAA Animations (Forecast date from 8-16 June - Click to Animate)

Both keep the trend of the Upper Ridge over or slightly to the west of the UK, however a slight further movement west in recent runs.

[attachment=216590:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (8th - 16th June).gif] [attachment=216589:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (8th - 16th June).gif]

[b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

[b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

On the 22nd, there is High Pressure to the South and west of the UK, by the 25th, there is a ridge of High pressure from the South West and with no pressure in control by the 27th.
[attachment=216562:ECM 17 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216563:ECM 17 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216564:ECM 17 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216565:ECM Ens 17 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216566:ECM Ens 17 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216567:ECM Ens 17 June to 27 June 00Hz.png]

[b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

The ECM has High Pressure close to or voer teh UK from the 22nd to the 27th inclusive, so quite promising in terms of the general weather pattern.
[attachment=216594:ECM 17 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216593:ECM 17 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216592:ECM 17 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Summary[/b]

Positives
The GFS runs and ensembles are more drier than yesterday
Pressure is forecast to be higher than yesterday

Neutral
The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to the UK
he GFS and Ensembles although drier than yesterday, and not completely dry
ECM has high pressure to start which slowly weakens over the festival

Negatives
Not many today especially compared to recent runs

A reversal since yesterday and the score improves back to 5.0 and solely on today's runs it be better than that again, bit keeping at 5.0 on a trend basis. 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

Much better charts than yesterday, what will tomorrow bring on this roller-coaster.

[b]Links [/b]

Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
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