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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 9 Issued 16 June

J10

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This is the 9th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

[attachment=216517:Glastonbury Trendline to 15 June.JPG]

Until yesterday, things had looked a bit more promising with a bit more longevity of the high Pressure, however yesterday was not so good, is this the start of a new trend or a blip.

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
[attachment=216485:GFS 16 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216486:GFS 16 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216487:GFS 16 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216488:GFS 16 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

Even by next Sunday the 22nd, the High Pressure has moved away to the west. It slowly tuns a little bit more unsettled from the south and East, with rain edging in for the start of next week, with some very heavy rain likely for the 25th (Wednesday), however drier by Thursday with High Pressure nudging back in from the North West. The High Pressure over the UK keeping things dry for the rest of the festival, so some very muddy conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, but drying up considerably over the weekend, both underfoot and weatherwise. Even though it is an outlier in terms of the magnitude of the rainfall to start the festival, good agreement on some rain around this time.

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
Weak pressure over the UK for next Sunday the 22nd, this slowly edges away with some showers associated with lower pressure edging in from the south from around Tuesday with some heavy rain likely on
Wednesday. Thereafter similar to the 06Hz with High Pressure nudging in to settled things down over the weekend. One slight chance a few showers likely according to the 12Hz for Thursday.
[attachment=216492:GFS 16 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216491:GFS 16 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216490:GFS 16 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216489:GFS 16 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

[b]06Hz[/b]

[attachment=216497:Ensemble Temps 16 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216498:Ensemble Rainfall 16 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216499:Ensemble Pressure 16 June 06Hz.png]

Pressure falling back to around 1020mb by the 20th, and continuing to drop to around 1015mb for the start of the festival, and remain there or slightly higher throughout. The wettest set of ensembles for quite a while for the festival duration. Temps averaging at the lower end of the 5-10c @ 850HPA.

[b]12Hz[/b]

[attachment=216510:Ensemble Temps 16 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216511:Ensemble Rainfall 16 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216512:Ensemble Pressure 16 June 12Hz.png]

Pressure falling back to around 1020mb by the 20th, and continuing to drop to around 1015-1020mb for the start of the festival, and remain there throughout. The rainfall enesmlbles show a variety of oprion, and are much drier than the 06Hz run. Temps averaging at the lower end of the 5-10c @ 850HPA.

[b]Trends / Animations [/b]

[b]Pressure [/b]
Signs of Pressure edging below 1020mb for the festival indication the increased chance of unsettled weather.
[attachment=216508:Pressure GIF to 16 June 06Hz.gif]

Rainfall
A very recent trend of quite a lot of ensembles going for increased rainfall for the festival. However perhaps today's 06Hz run was a bit of a blip.
[attachment=216513:Rainfall GIF to 16 June 12Hz.gif]
[b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

[attachment=216500:500 HPA 15 June.gif][attachment=216501:500 HPA 15 June -10 day.gif]

Similar to yesterday with an upper ridge over the UK and more especially the North and west of the UK, however in light of other forecasts today, the positive pressure anomaly less over Southern and especially Eastern areas, where the lower pressure is expected to come from.

[b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

[b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

[attachment=216495:ECM 16 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216496:ECM 16 June to 22 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216494:ECM Ens 16 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216493:ECM Ens 16 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

High Pressure lingering over the UK to the 22Hz and the operational run, but the the 1020mb isobar has moves away to the west on the ensemble run.
While for the 25th, Low Pressure for Northern and Western parts of the UK on the operational run, with the UK in between the 1016-1020mb isobars on the ensembles run with no weather pattern dominating.


[b]ECM 12Hz[/b]
[attachment=216514:ECM 16 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]
The operational run has High Pressure to the NW of the UK, with low pressure very close by on the continent.

[b]Summary[/b]

Positives
The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to or over the UK


Neutral
The ECM runs keep High Pressure close to but not over the UK.
The 12Hz Ensembles are a bit better than the 06Hz run

Negatives
Both Operational GFS runs have low presure and heavy rain forecast to start the festival, but drying up over the weekend in both cases.
The 06Hz GEFS Ensembles look wet and unsettled for the festival, especially to start.

A further downward trend today, and back up to 6.0 on the 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

With today's charts indicating the real chance of mud bath conditions to start the festival, although this should dry out very quickly. It is also very interesting to see if the current trend of low pressure edging up from the South and South east in the run-up to the festival is maintained.
[b]Going Forward[/b]

I'll update the NOAA upper chart animation tomorrow, and some of the ensembles on Wednesday, probably the rainfall one.

[b]Links [/b]

Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]

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