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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 8 Issued 15 June

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J10

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This is the 8th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.

The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5,4.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

Over the past few days things have looked a bit more promising with pressure around the festival period circa 1020mb, and not much in the way of washout runs, although a completely dry festival equally unlikely, what does today have in store.

[attachment=216388:Glastonbury Rollercoaster Trendline to 14 June.JPG]

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

[attachment=216384:GFS 15 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216385:GFS 15 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216386:GFS 15 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216387:GFS 15 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]
High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, this weakens by the 25th, but still with weak High Pressure, although with Low Pressure seemingly waiting in the wings to the west. Byn the 27th the High Pressure has moved away to Scandinavia, with low pressure over the UK and quite a wet day in prospect. A further wet day in prospect on the Sunday with Low Pressure again in charge. This run is not a complete outlier with the ensembles but one of the more unsettled cluster options.

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]

[attachment=216389:GFS 15 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG][attachment=216390:GFS 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216391:GFS 15 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216392:GFS 15 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

High Pressure over the UK on the 22nd, however this moves away to the north by the 25th with Low Pressure edging in from the South East, with some moderate rain for Glastonbury for both the Wedesday and Thursday, but turning drier again as the LP moves away by the Friday. High Pressure nudging in from the South West over weekend, so mostly dry.. As expected this is an outlier, so can be taken wityh a pinch of salt.
[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

[b]06Hz[/b]

[attachment=216380:Ensemble Temps 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216381:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216382:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 06Hz.png]

Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is one of the most unsettled options but not an absolute outlier. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout.

[b]12Hz[/b]
[attachment=216401:Ensemble Temps 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216399:Ensemble Rainfall 15 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216400:Ensemble Pressure 15 June 12Hz.png]

Pressure failing back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and remaining there or slightly below on average through the festival. as mentioned earlier the unsettled operational run is an absolute outlier for the start of the festival. In terms of rainfall, many of the runs, go for some rainfall, but not many for an absolute washout, but there are more ensembles going for moderate rainfall for the 27-29th period, so this is something to watch out for.
[b]Temps [/b]
As promised yesterday I said I would look at Temps for the festival, so by looking at 850Hpa temps. I have attached the animation as ever click to animate, there is still a very large degree of uncertainty with the mean figures always between +5 to +10c (@ 850HPa), which is around the Average for late June.

[attachment=216395:Temps GIF to 15 June 00Hz.gif]

[b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

[attachment=216378:500 HPA 14 June -10 day.gif] [attachment=216379:500 HPA 14 June.gif]
These both show an upper ridge over the UK, this is more pronounced on the 6-10 day forecast.

[b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

[b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

The operational run and the Ensemble run both reduce the High Pressure dominance over the UK with the Ensembles having pressure to be in the range 1016-1020mb over the UK.

[attachment=216402:ECM 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216394:ECM Ens 15 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

[b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

The operational run keeps high pressure over western areas of the UK.
[attachment=216403:ECM 15 June to 25 June 12Hz.png]

[b]Summary[/b]

Positives
The Upper Charts remain positive of an upper ridge over the UK
The GFS Ensembles (00Hz/12Hz) keeps pressure around the 1020mb
ECM operational run keeps High Pressure over western parts of the UK.

Negatives
Both GFS runs are rather unsettled and wet at times, although neither are an absolute washout.
ECM operational and ensemble runs not as bullish at keeping High Pressure.
GFS ensembles indicating a bit more rainfall over the weekend of the festival
Things are a bit more mixed today, and as such I am giving a rating of 5/10, as things as very neutral at the moment, again with no real sign of a dry or washout festival.(However it is slightly more negative than positive)

[b]Going Forward[/b]

I'll update the Animations for Ensemble Pressure and Rainfall tomorrow and the NOAA animation on Tuesday,

[b]Links [/b]

Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3[/url]
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