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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 7 Issued 14 June

J10

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This is the 7th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.

The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:215998]

The theme has been for a while that High Pressure is likely to remain next week, ith pressure slowly falling back to 1020mb, the big question then was would low pressure take over.

Onto each of the forecast methods.

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

As there are 3 days of runs, I will summarise the runs for Thursday and Friday, and a direct link to the forum where I have posted charts.

[b]Thursday 12th[/b]
Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267[/url]

Two runs posted today the 06Hz and the 12Hz,

[b]06Hz[/b] - The run breaks down the HP before the festival, but the HP builds back in and looking relatively decent. (shown 06hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)
[b]12Hz[/b] - The run keeps the HP a bit longer, an unsettled start on the Wednesday with rain from the South West, but a little drier for the weekend. (shown 12hz to 22,25,28 June respectively)

[b]Friday 13th[/b]
Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621[/url]

[b]00Hz[/b] - I don't normally include this run, but today it was very decent, and dry for the start of the festival but turning slightly unsettled over the weekend, but not bad.
[b]06Hz[/b] - Rather unsettled with a westerly flow, and quite a damp festival period.
[b]12Hz[/b] - High Pressure never too far away and a mostly dry festival period.

So 2 out of 3 quite positive runs today, better than recent days have suggested.

[b]Saturday 14th[/b]

06Hz - HP on top of the UK on the 22nd, only for Low Pressure to edge in from the South West from the Wednesday a rather wet day on Friday with Low Pressure centred to the North East of the UK. this slowly filling and moving away over the weekend, with further patchy rain on Saturday, but turning drier on Sunday.

[attachment=216288:GFS 14 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216289:GFS 14 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216290:GFS 14 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216291:GFS 14 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

12Hz - HP on top of the UK right through to the start of Glastonbury, this slowly edging away on Thursday and Friday, with a chance of some showers over the weekend, more especially Saturday as pressure tries to nudge back in on the Sunday.

[attachment=216295:GFS 14 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216294:GFS 14 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216293:GFS 14 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216292:GFS 14 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

The 12Hz the better of the run with mostly settled conditions but the 06 isn't terrible apart from the Friday. If you look at the ensembles below the 06Hz doesn't look that much of an outlier - however if you look at Aberdeenshire Pressure you can see the outlier better.

[attachment=216296:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz Aberdeenshire.png]

So the 06Hz run can perhaps be discounted a bit.

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
Trend Analysis Pressure (click to animate)
[attachment=216277:Pressure GIF to 13 June.gif]
Trend Analysis Rainfall (click to animate)
[attachment=216276:Rainfall GIF to 13 June.gif]

[b]Today's Runs[/b]

[b]06Hz[/b]
[attachment=216274:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216319:Ensemble Rainfall 14 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216278:Ensemble Temps 14 June 06Hz.png]

[b]12Hz[/b]
[attachment=216313:Ensemble Pressure 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216312:Ensemble Rainfall 14 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216314:Ensemble Temps 14 June 12Hz.png]

The ensembles trend continues to be pressure around 1025-1030mb for the next few dyas, before falling back to around 1020mb or thereabouts to the end of the run which includes the festival period. However no massive drop off and no huge deluge of rain expected, some rain is likely but no washout expected as things stand.
[b]NOAA 500mb Forecast [/b]

6-10 day (Click to Animate from 1st June to 13th June)

[attachment=216282:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 13th June).gif]

[attachment=216280:500 HPA 13 June.gif] [Last Run - yesterday]

8-14 day (Click to Animate from 1st June to 13th June)

[attachment=216281:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 13th June).gif]

[attachment=216279:500 HPA 13 June -10 day.gif] [Last Run - yesterday]

[b]ECM Operational Runs / Ensembles [/b]

Thursday 12th - Direct Link on Forum for daily charts - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988267[/url]
High pressure lasting to the 22 June (end of run).
Friday 13th - Direct Link on Forum for daily charts. - [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2988621[/url]

ECM Operational Run - High Pressure holding on to the 23rd.

ECM Ensemble (00Hz and 12Hz) - Again with High Pressure close by around the 23rd.

Saturday 14th -

ECM Operational Run - High Pressure holding on to the 24th.

[attachment=216309:ECM 12 June to 24 June 00Hz.png]

ECM Ensembles (00Hz)

[attachment=216310:ECM Ens 14 June to 24 June 00Hz.png]
High Pressure holding on to the 24th.
[b]Summary[/b]

There were signs a few days ago of the pressure falling after the 21st June meaning an unsettled start to the festival, this currently seems less likely, and pressure will hold up, to mgive reasonable weather,, with probably a little bit of rain at times, but not washout as things stand.

So the latest rating will be 4.5 which is an improvement from 5.5 on Wednesday.

[b]Going Forward[/b]

The daily summaries previously in the main thread will appear here as blogs, so there will now be a daily blog until the final full blog on Wednesday 25 June. I have also been keeping an eye on the Temps ensembles, and I'll make my first Temps forecast tomorrow.

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