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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 5 Issued 8 June

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J10

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This is the 5th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

[b]Previous Blogs Summaries[/b]
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages
2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily
4. NOAA 500Mb Upper Charts[/b]

The NOAA upper charts are new for this week, as we move away from the longer range forecast.

Future Blogs will move away from CFS Monthly Averages and onto GFS and NOAA only.

[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

[b]June[/b] [From Net Weather Extra]

[attachment=215545:June Rainfall - GIF.gif] [attachment=215546:June Temps - GIF.gif] [attachment=215544:June Pressure - GIF.gif]
For June, I have created a GIF of all charts to date, click to animate. In each case, each chart shows the weekly evolution of the forecast from early May to the latest update on the 7 June.

Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215538:Rainfall June 7 June.png] [attachment=215537:Temps June 7 June.png] [attachment=215536:Pressure June 7 June.png]
Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (120-140%), but around/ below average for the South West so better than last week.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, very similar to last week.
Pressure is forecast to be be above average, towards the north, but below average towards the south west, so continuing the worsening theme.

Still a bit mixed.

[b]July[/b]

Regular Weekly Updates - [attachment=215534:Rainfall July 7 July.png] [attachment=215533:Temps July 7 June.png] [attachment=215535:Pressure July 7 June.png]

Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (180%), and higher than average over most of Southern UK.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, but the anomalies less than forecast last week.
Pressure is forecast to be marginally above average, very similar to last week.

In summary, looking wetter than last week.

[b]2. CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][From Net Weather Extra][code=auto:0] CFS RunDate obtain Rating Pressure Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure Winds Rain Temps 31 May 00HZ 01-Jun 7.5 HP Building From SW, LP largely kept away to North West W/NW Odd shower possible, but mostly missing SW Light Orange to Orange 1 June 00HZ 02-Jun 3.0 LP to NE to start, HP ridges in, then LP comes back from NW Late weekend NW Moderate rain except Saturday Dark Green (Sunday) / to Light Orange 2 June 00HZ 03-Jun 9.0 HP bang on top of the UK for Wed-Sat, only slowly edging away to East Sunday E Maybe odd light shower Light Orange 3 June 00HZ 04-Jun 3.0 Ridging HP to start, then zonal with West winds and a flat fast moving jet W Bands of rain moving west across UK, some heavy Yellow / Light Orange 4 June 00HZ 05-Jun 9.0 HP to start, but LP edging up from South E Odd Shower Wed, otherwise dry Light Orange to Deep Orange 5 June 00HZ 06-Jun 4.5 HP Wednesday, but low pressure from north and west taking over W Bands of rain Thur, Fri and Sun (hvy Fri/Sun) Yellow / Light Orange6 6 June 00HZ 07-Jun 4.0 LP centred Northern UK, unsettled with West to South West Winds W/SW Rain / Showers all days, some heavy Dark Green to Light Orange[/code]
An average score of 5.71 (entirely subjective), but what is very noticeable is that the forecasts are either really good (3) or really bad, no in betweens which is often the case.

3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url] )

[b]July[/b] (June not available)[code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m (G) z500 (G) PRMSL (G) Rainfall 01-Jul +1c to +2c +3c to +4c +6 to +7 +4 to +5 Blue S/SW/SE Eng, Light Red W Midlands / Wales 02-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +4 to +5 Blue Southern UK, White Midlands 03-Jul -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -3 to -2 -3 to -2 Light Blue SE, Red, Midlands/SE 04-Jul +1c to +2c +2c to +3c +6 to +7 +2 to +3 Blue SW, Red Midlands/ Wales 05-Jul -1c to 0c +1c to +2c -2 to -1 0 to +1 Blue S England, Red Midlands 06-Jul 0c to +1c +2c to +3c +7 to +8 +3 to +4 Deep Blue S England, White Light Red Midlands 07-Jul 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +2 to +3 +1 to +2 Blue S England, Red Midlands [/code]
In terms of upper air Temps 5 are marginally above average, 2 are below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average.
In terms of pressure (at both z500 and at Sea Level) 5 are above average, and 2 below average.
In terms of rainfall, 3 are positive, is negative, 3 are mixed
[b]4. NOAA[/b]
I have attached a weekly GIF for both the 6-10 trend and the 8-14 trend, in both cases, if you click the chart, you will be able to animate.in each case, the charts show the daily evolution from the 1st June to the 7th June.

[attachment=215548:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
For the 6-10 days, a clear trend of the upper trough moving away, and upper ridges closer to the UK.
[attachment=215547:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 7th June).gif]
For the 8-14 days, The same initial trend of the upper trough moving away, but no dominant pattern emerging.

This suggests to me more settled weather next week, but as we move closer to Glastonbury, 17 days away, so only just out of range of these forecasts, perhaps not so settled once again.

Daily updates on this are published on the main forum here -> [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]

[b]Summary[/b]
A lot of data this week, and no clear conclusions, however the monthly runs for June suggest, a rather unsettled outlook. The daily CFS runs are very mixed, some very good weather foretasted and some very wet weather foretasted. It does seem that next week sees the weather improve and things settling down before next weekend but there are indications after that of things going downhill once again.

So my latest conclusion is slightly negative for the Glastonbury festival.

For more info including the latest spreadsheet containing the CFS Raw Runs data and the CFS from Meteociel, please visit the discussion thread on the main forum. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]
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