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Weather guide Spring Bank Holiday Monday to Sunday 1st June 2014

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain at times, potentially wet weather Midlands; perhaps improving later in the week[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spectacular storms over much of Mid and North Wales last Monday, some fantastic lightning shows, especially for Aberystwyth northwards where there were multiple storms from dawn until the early hours of Tuesday! The lightning was notable for being visible over great distances, I saw bright lightning on Monday night coming from storms around 40 miles away in the Newtown area of Powys, also the thunder was audible over much greater distance than is typical, I counted one strike at almost one and half minutes to the rumble of its thunder, some 18 miles away! Thunder is usually only audible to about 12 miles maximum (you can work it out by counting the seconds following the lightning, 5 seconds being approximately one mile away). Some places caught over an inch of rain with localised flooding and there was hail. Meanwhile the Midlands had a very warm, quite sunny Monday, with highs of 24 or 25c for many, Pershore tops at 26c. It was warm for Wales too before the showers and storms arrived. Tuesday and Wednesday saw a few showers but many escaped largely dry, and Wednesday was rather warm with plenty of sunshine. Very wet Wednesday night over the Midlands Coventry and Rugby getting 17mm. The remainder of the week has seen further rain and showers and disappointing temperatures. Saturday was a washout for much of West Wales, 18mm at Llanwnnen, while many parts of the Midlands had thunder late afternoon or evening. Pershore. Worcestershire one of the wettest spots in the UK on Saturday with over an inch of rain (26mm) while Bablake School, Coventry has had 49mm since Wednesday, almost a month's worth. Most places will end up with a thoroughly wet May with more rain to come in the final week, the Midlands likely to see the wettest of the weather while WW may not far too badly escaping the worst of it. Some hope of drier, warmer weather after Thursday. The heat in May has been focused over Russia where it has exceeded 35c, no heat on the way for our part of the world just yet![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Welcome brightness over the Midlands this Sunday morning, but West Wales (WW) is overcast with showers about. Some heavy showers across Wales then this afternoon, only a few spots missing them, better chance of a dry afternoon for the Midlands, showers only likely over the West Midlands. Highs a rather cool 14c to 16c, coolest for WW. An iffy Bank Holiday Monday, some us escaping with a largely dry day with sunny intervals, while others get some rain or showers, chiefly after midday. The low pressure that has dominated our weather over recent days has filled up by Monday only to be replaced by another low edging in from the near Continent. A finger of rain may develop over the Midlands through Monday afternoon, so locally quite a wet day here. In contrast much of WW not having a bad day at all with highs around 17c, compared with just 13c where wet over the Midlands. Light winds on Monday. Further rain in places overnight for the Midlands, mostly dry for WW. Further showers or longer spells of rain about on Tuesday, the North Midlands potentially in for a soaking, the rain more showery with dry spells elsewhere, sunshine probably limited. Near normal temperatures for SW Wales around 16c maxima, but a very cool 12c where wettest over the Midlands, where a stiff north wind develops afternoon. Some coastal parts of WW may end up with a dry day again. Wednesday too looking decidely unsettled with low pressure still close to Eastern England. Very difficult to pinpoint where will get the rain and where will escape other than to say that once more parts of the Midlands could get another soaking, while parts of SW Wales and particularly Pembrokeshire get another mosly dry day. Another day where raininess dictates temperatures, a very cool 13c over the North Midlands and perhaps Snowdonia on Wednesday afternoon, compared with a pleasant 17c over South Wales and the South Midlands where it looks somewhat drier with sunny intervals. Winds should be lighter again by mid week. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but not to especially high levels, so not enough perhaps then to dry it out completely! Still some kind of trough or shallow low feature over us even on Thursday in an ill-defined pattern, so some further showery rain in places, again some fortunate areas largely escape. HIghs ranging from a cool 14c for the NE Midlands where the east breeze is most pronounced to a reasonably warm 18c even 19c further SW and where some brightness will be found. As usual model differences abound come the end of the week making it harder to decipher just what weather we will get! GFS gives high pressure of around 1023mbar and a drier picture for Friday and Saturday, just a few showers about,and warm temperatures getting above 20c for many. ECM though less convincing, lowish pressure still and an unsettled look to its charts which would bring showery rain, even some thunderstorms over next weekend. GFS too sees the weather deteriorate by Sunday as pressure falls away. So nothing terribly Summery in prospect as we start June..bear in mind though that it snowed in early June 1975 and that turned out a very warm Summer![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=214106:PPVG89 drier WW rain locally Mids MOn.png][attachment=214107:PPVJ89 showers lsr Tu.png][attachment=214108:ecmt850.072 rain in places r windy Tu.png][attachment=214109:PPVL89 rain threat EM m dry WW Wed.png][attachment=214110:ecmt850.096 unsettles wet in places Wed.png][attachment=214111:h850t850eu cool wet potential Mids Tu.png][attachment=214114:PPVO89 rain in places again TH.png][attachment=214111:h850t850eu cool wet potential Mids Tu.png][attachment=214115:ecmt850.144 q unsettled FR warmer.png][attachment=214116:h850t850eu m dry r warm FR.png][attachment=214117:ecmt850.168 unsettled showery weekend.png][attachment=214118:prcpWest~Midlands rain times all week.png][attachment=214119:prmslWest~Midlands unsettled H Fr Sa when warm.png][attachment=214120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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