Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Netweather Community Blog

  • entries
    149
  • comments
    133
  • views
    337,469

Contributors to this blog

Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 3 Issued 25 May

J10

1,729 views

This is the 3rd blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first 2 blogs were mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

[b]June[/b]

[attachment=214025:Pressure June 24 May.png] [attachment=214026:Temps June 24 May.png] [attachment=214029:Rainfall June 24 May.png]

Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands, and below average in Southern areas, but better than last week in both cases.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, however generally forecast to be 1c colder than last week.
Pressure is forecast to be higher than average but not by as much in southern areas compared to last week.

All in all decent but not quite as positive as last week.

[b]July[/b]

[attachment=214024:Pressure July 24 May.png] [attachment=214027:Temps July 24 May.png] [attachment=214028:Rainfall July 24 May.png]

Rainfall is again forecast to be above average in the Midlands (160%), and below average in Southern areas (80%), around the same as last week.
Temps are forecast to be above average UK wide, with the North seeing the highest anomalies, however generally forecast to be 1c warmer than last week.
Pressure is forecast to be higher to the west of the UK this week, and also above average over most of the UK.
In summary, mostly decent conditions and pressure slightly higher to the south and west compared to last week, so slightly better for Glastonbury.

[b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b][code=auto:0] CFS Run Obtain Rating Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 17 May 00HZ 18-May 7.5 Unsettled Westerly flow, HP into too far from south W/SW Showers early and late, more general rain Fri into Sat Light Orange to Deep Orange 18 May 00HZ 19-May 8.5 HP dominates to start, in control throughout festival E/SE Light showers at worst Orange (mostly) / Light Orange 19 May 00HZ 20-May 5.5 Battle LP to New and Ridging HP From South West SW Rain to Friday, drier for weekend Light Orange to Orange 20 May 00HZ 21-May 5.0 Low Pressure to N/W of UK, temporary HP ridging South Thurs / Fri SW Some rain at times, from fronts moving NE Light Orange 21 May 00HZ 22-May 5.0 HP over UK to start, edging North to be replaced by LP from South E to SW Dry then some rain to follow Orange to Deep Orange 22 May 00HZ 23-May 5.0 LP to NW to start, HP slowly ridging from SW by weekend SW Rain wed, Thurs - Sat only light shows, mod rain Sunday Light Orange 23 May 00HZ 24-May 3.5 LP to N to start, pressure slowly building with slack W winds West Rain most day, Drier Sunday Yellow / Light Orange [/code]
[b][b]A full week of these and as usual, quite a variety of outcomes, some rather mixed, and generally not as promising as last week. [/b][/b]

3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel...fsme_cartes.php[/url] )

[b]Overall Summary[/b]

[b]June[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m z500 PRMSL Rainfall 18-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c +8 to +9 +5 to +6 Blue all Southern UK inc Midlands 19-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 0 to +1 Red Central Southern England 20-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -3 to -2 Blue S UK, White Light Red Midlands 21-May 1c to +2c +1c to +2c +6 to +7 +3 to +4 Blue All UK 22-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 +1 White / Light Red Southern UK 23-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 White / Light Red Southern UK 24-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Blue S End, Red Midlands/Wales[/code]
In terms of upper air, 5 are marginally above average, 2 a re below average, all 2m temps are slightly above average. In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are below average and 4 below average, in terms of rainfall, ,3 generally positive, 4 slightly negative. All in all very mixed. Last week saw Pressure and temps indications being almost universally positive so not as good this week.

[b]July[/b][code=auto:0] Date 850Hpa Temp 2m z500 PRMSL Rainfall 18-May +2c to +3c +3c to +4c +6 to +7 +1 to +2 Blue S Eng, Red Midlands/Wales 19-May +2c to +3c +3c to +4c +7 +2 to +3 Red Midlands, mixed Southern England 20-May 0c to +1c +1c to +2c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 Red all Southern UK 21-May -1c to 0c 0c to +1c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 Red all Southern UK 22-May -1c to 0c +1c to +2c 0 to +1 0 Red / Deep Red Southern UK 23-May 0c 0c to +1c -1 to 0 -1 to 0 White SW, Red Rest southern UK 24-May 0c +1c to +2c +3 to +4 +1 to +2 Blue SW Eng, Red SE Eng/Midlands [/code]
In terms of upper air, 3 are marginally above average, 2 are below average, and 2 neutral. All 2m temps are slightly above average. In terms of pressure (at z500) 4 are above average, and 3 below average, and at Sea Level (PRMSL) 3 are below average and 3 below average and one neutral. In terms of rainfall, 1 generally positive, 6 slightly negative. All in all very mixed.

This shows an improvement over last week in terms of 850Hpa air temps, while 2m Temps and Sea Level Pressure are about the same, however z500 Pressures are worse, as these wee very positive last week, while the Rainfall forecast is not as good as last week.

All in all, quite a neutral picture, and generally not as good as last week.

Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2966973[/url]

I will put the monthly stats for the UK as a whole on the main thread, as well as the main discussion thread.

[b]Overall[/b]

After two quite promising weeks, this weeks is not as good, however still a neutral forecast rather than a positive one.

×
×
  • Create New...