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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 2 Issued 18 May

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J10

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This is the second blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first blog was mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

Using the charts kindly supplied from Paul

[attachment=213364:Temps 18 May.JPG] [attachment=213365:Precip 18 May.JPG]

A clear theme of above average temps, with rainfall close to below average, which is not too bad, this also agrees with the raw monthly charts below.

Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

[b]June[/b]

[attachment=213282:Pressure June 17 May.png] [attachment=213283:Temps June 17 May.png] [attachment=213284:Rainfall June 17 May.png]

The above shows temps above average for the UK, with pressure also above average for the UK, in both cases, the anomalies are bigger for more northern areas. Rainfall is lower than average over Southern England and only slightly above average for the Midlands, so all in all, pretty good charts this week.

[b]July[/b]
[attachment=213279:Temps July 17 May.png] [attachment=213280:Rainfall July 17 May b.png] [attachment=213281:Rainfall July 17 May.png]
July continues the warm theme, pressure is just above average, but below average to the South west, and rainfall is well above average over the Midlands, indicating more general higher rainfall for southern areas.

In summary, mostly decent conditions but with a risk of Low Pressure edging in from the west / South West, not brilliant for Glastonbury.

[b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]

[b]A full week of these and as usual, quite a variety of outcomes.[/b][code=auto:0] R = Rating out of 10 Run Date R Pressure Winds Rainfall Temps 10 May 00HZ 5 Unsettled mobile to start then LP to NW West Rain / Heavy showers most days Light Orange to Orange 11 May 00HZ 6 Battle between HP to SE and LP to N/W, LP winning for Thurs-Sat SW Showers/Rain at times Yellow to Orange 12 May 00HZ 7.5 Battle Low to NW, High to SW, HP win mainly for southern areas SW Showers at times Light Orange to Deep Orange 13 May 00HZ 6.5 High Pressure ridging to start, LP building from North after NW Showers Wed-Fri, Dry Sat, Rain Sun Light Orange to Orange 14 May 00HZ 6.5 LP to start, but HP builds in from west by weekend SW to NW Wet Wed, showery, then dry over weekend Light Orange 15 May 00HZ 3 LP over UK for festival (moving from SW to NE) SW to NW Wet Wed-Fri, showery weekend Yellow to Light Orange 16 May 00HZ 7.5 LP to start, but HP ridges in from Thursday from SW SW to SE Rain Wed-Thu then progressively drier Light Orange to Orange[/code]
[size=4][font=arial]The Majority of these are quite decent, with only the run on the 15th looking like a washout.[/font][/size]


3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b] (Source [url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url] )

I have reduced the info from last weeks run, as there was too much info, and concentrated on the figures for Glastonbury.[code=auto:0] JUNE 850Hpa z500 PRMSL Temps 2m Rainfall 11-May 0c -2 to -1 -1 0c to +1c Blue SW / Red Rest Southern UK 12-May 0c to 1c +1 to +2 +1 to +2 +1c to +2c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 13-May 0c to 2c +4 to +5 +1 to +2 +2c to +3c Blue S UK, White Midlands 14-May 1c to 2c +6 to +7 +1 to +2 +2c to +3c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 15-May 0c to 2c +1 to +2 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White Midlands 16-May 0c to 2c 0 to +1 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Deep Blue S UK, White / Light Red Midlands 17 May 0c to 1c 0 to +1 0 to +1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White Light Red Midlands [/code]
[font=arial][size=4]In Summary, warmer than average, Pressure generally above average, rainfall around/below average, all in all pretty positive outcomes. [/size][/font][code=auto:0] JULY 850Hpa z500 PRMS Temps 2m Rainfall 11-May +1c +4 to +5 +3 to +4 +2c to +3c Dark Blue S Eng, light Red Midlands 12-May +3c +4 to +5 -2 to -1 +4c to +5c Light Blue SW, Deep Red Midlands 13-May +1c to +2c 0 to +1 -2 to -1 +2c to +3c Red S UK 14-May -1c to 0c -4 to -3 -3 to -2 +1c Red / Deep Red S UK 15-May 0c +3 to +4 1 +1c to +2c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 16-May -1c to -2c +3 to +4 +4 to +5 1c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands 17-May -1c to -2c +3 to +4 +4 to +5 0c to +2c Blue S UK, White /light red Midlands[/code]
[font=arial][size=4]In Summary, warmer than average, However pressure below averages, rainfall around/above average, all in all not as positive as the June forecast.[/size][/font]

[b]Overall Summary[/b]

The theme for Glastonbury is quite positive, but still of course a long way off.

Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2966973[/url]
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