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Weather guide Monday 12th to Sunday 18th May 2014

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Cool and showery at first, becoming mostly dry and warm from Wednesday; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]
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The Midlands saw some rather warm and quite sunny weather up to last Tuesday, in contrast West Wales has been quite dull with just fleeting sunny intervals. May is often the sunniest month of the year here in West Wales. Thus far sunshine figures have been very disappointing, with just 22 hours the estimated figure here at Llanwnnen, not much brighter on the coast either, just 30 hours at Aberporth to date - so a long way to approach the average 218 hours for the mpnth of May. Some rain and showers last week although at least there was plenty of dry weather up to Wednesday. Maximum temperatures were close to the early May average 14 to 16c for much of last week - after the above average start over the Midlands - although it did feel chilly in the wind at times. Nights were quite mild with all the cloud and no frosts occurred. Saturday was a cool, wet and windy day over much of Wales, particularly wet over the hills, Capel Curig the wettest place in Europe with 60.6mm. Winds gusted over 60mph in exposed places yesterday, Mumbles near Swansea recording 63mph.[/font][/color]
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Some fine and warm weather on the way eventually in the coming week as high pressure settles over the UK for a while, but a return to cooler unsettled conditions looks probable over next weekend. Mostly cloudy and very cool on Sunday with a brisk west wind bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Parts of West Wales getting some prolonged spells of rain again throughout the day, enough for further localised flooding, Pembrokeshire perhaps escaping the worst of it today. Highs well below average at 11 to 13c. Showers tending to die out this evening except for some coasts and hills. With low pressure to our east the cool unsettled weather continues on Monday, which sees further showers and a possible longer spell of rain, some heavy bursts at times. Some sunny intervals especially Midlands, but few of us escaping the showers, cool maxima 12 to 15c but less windy than was the weekend. Clear spells as showers die out overnight Monday and a local grass frost cannot be ruled out. Still quite a cool NW flow Tuesday with scattered showers, especially over the Midlands where thunder is possible, better dry, brighter spells for West Wales and where some areas stay dry. Temperatures up a bit reaching 14 to 16c so feeling pleasant enough in the sunny breaks. Clearing skies brings the risk of a ground frost on Tuesday night, some spots getting close to 0c.[/font][/color]
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Changes during Wednesday as high pressures edges into the SW drying things out. Still a few showers about, but most places having a dry day with some sunny spells, although perhaps a rather cloudy afternoon for West Wales. A warmer day highs 15 to 18c, best for the Midlands. Clear spells overnight again with a grass frost in places although most places stay above 4c. High pressure is over southern Britain on Thursday which looks a lovely warm day with decent sunny spells, perhaps even a sunny day in prospect! Maxima 18 to 20c although cooler around coasts with sea breezes, but only light winds generally. No frost risk for Thursday night in spite of the clear skies lows mostly above 6c. Some differences in the models as to the situation of the high on Friday but another dry, warm day in prospect with decent amounts of sunshine. Dependent on the wind direction where will get the highest temperatures but there is the possibilty of a SE breeze which would mean highs in the 20 to 22c bracket. However should the high pressure pull to our west then cooler breezes would affect West Wales keeping it at 15 to 18c here.[/font][/color]
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Next weekend and the fine, warm interlude looks like ending as pressure falls across the UK. A lot of different permutations on offer for next weekends models, we may get another largely dry day on Saturday, with Sunday expected to see some rain and a cool down. Much of the remainder of May then looking quite unsettled but might be on the warm side.[/font][/color]
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