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Weather guide Monday 28th April to May Day 2014

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Showery but quite warm; cool and mainly dry with frost from Friday[/b][/font]
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A mild/ quite warm week gone for the most part although with some rain at times. Easter Monday was warm many places reaching 17 to 19c, and 19.9c in my garden although we were not in it! Friday saw variable conitions, much of the Midlands being cool and wet with over an inch of rain for parts of the South and West Midlands, Alvechurch south of Birmingham, receiving 38mm for the day. Some rain also for North Wales on Friday, but much of SW Wales mainly dry and quite mild - although parts of Carmarthenshire had heavy afternoon showers. Frequent heavy showers made for a soggy Saturday afternoon across much of SW Wales, Llanwnnen having 25mm rain in the 24 hours to midnight on Saturday. In contrast a mostly dry and bright Saturday for the Midlands, and Anglesey also did quite well, Mona reaching a pleasant 17c with few showers, Aberystwyth and northern Cardigan Bay too largely escaping.[/font]
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More unsettled weather this week, further rain or showers at times, but with some warm sunny intervals between, so not a washout, and some areas escaping with a relatively dry week. Then cooler but becoming mostly dry by the weekend, some early May frost to look out for too over the weekend. A filling low is heading into the English Channel during Sunday, sunny intervals only serving to cause convective showers to develop this afternoon, some heavy, perhaps even with a rumble of thunder, as usual some areas missing the showers completely! Sunday highs close to the late April average at 13 to 15c, and much less wind than on Saturday. Most of the showers dying out this evening although Pembrokeshire could see a few through the night, no lower than 4c so no frost concerns. Very slack lowish pressure over the UK on Monday so light winds and where showers occur they will be slow- moving, hence prolonged giving a fair drop of rain locally, again with a chance of thunder for a few of us. Some places miss them however, West Wales perhaps most favoured for a mainly dry, bright day, and just the odd shower, while the Midlands sees more widespread shower activity through afternoon. Highs on Monday 15 to 17c, so given the light winds feeling quite warm in the sunny intervals. Clear spellls overnight Monday so turning chilly but we should just avoid a ground frost, generally remaining above 4c although with some mist and fog patches forming by dawn. A repeat performance on Tuesday of warm sunny intervals but further showers developing by midday, heavy in places, but some places stay dry, Cardigan Bay and Pembrokeshire more favoured to stay dry and bright on Tuesday. Maxima in the 16 to 19c range, pretty warm, only light winds again. A dry fairly mild night to follow. [/font]
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Weak low pressure just west of Ireland on Wednesday, but little change on the weather, further pleasant sunny spells interspersed by some showers, heavy in places, just the chance of a longer spell of rain in the mix too through the day, but equally some areas escaping and remain mostly dry. Rather warm again, highs 16 to 19c away from Welsh coasts where there will be a cooling breeze. A trough of low pressure sinks down over Wales and Southern England during Thursday which sees further rain or showers about, especially in the morning, and it turns cooler, highs 12 to 14c anticipated. High pressure centred north of Scotland on Friday with cooler NE winds over the UK. Mostly dry and bright with sunny spells though, the odd shower affecting the Midlands but a dry day is expected for West Wales. Chilly breezes and highs only 11 to 13c. Friday night the wind eases and with clearing skies a widespread frost will form, many places down to zero and locally -2c. Rather cool but fine and dry for Saturday too, sunny periods and light winds, highs 12 to 14c so not too bad a day! Another frost may well form on Saturday night too, model discrepancies obviously at this range but with the latest GFS run showing a somewhat unlikely -5c for the Welsh Marches, whereas the ECM model brings in milder Atlantic air and we would largely avoid an air frost - one to be aware of however, with at least the potential for a damaging May frost next weekend. Tentatively, but next Sunday and the May Day Bank Holiday could be fine and dry too![/font]
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Not so many showers Monday to Wednesday and some areas have been mainly dry so far this week!

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